Divergent estimation error in portfolio optimization and in linear regression

The problem of estimation error in portfolio optimization is discussed, in the limit where the portfolio size N and the sample size T go to infinity such that their ratio is fixed. The estimation error strongly depends on the ratio N/T and diverges for a critical value of this parameter. This divergence is the manifestation of an algorithmic phase transition, it is accompanied by a number of critical phenomena, and displays universality. As the structure of a large number of multidimensional regression and modelling problems is very similar to portfolio optimization, the scope of the above observations extends far beyond finance, and covers a large number of problems in operations research, machine learning, bioinformatics, medical science, economics, and technology.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, Statphys 23 Conference Proceedin

BCC vs. HCP - The Effect of Crystal Symmetry on the High Temperature Mobility of Solid 4^4He

We report results of torsional oscillator (TO) experiments on solid $^4$He at temperatures above 1K. We have previously found that single crystals, once disordered, show some mobility (decoupled mass) even at these rather high temperatures. The decoupled mass fraction with single crystals is typically 20- 30%. In the present work we performed similar measurements on polycrystalline solid samples. The decoupled mass with polycrystals is much smaller, $\sim$ 1%, similar to what is observed by other groups. In particular, we compared the properties of samples grown with the TO's rotation axis at different orientations with respect to gravity. We found that the decoupled mass fraction of bcc samples is independent of the angle between the rotation axis and gravity. In contrast, hcp samples showed a significant difference in the fraction of decoupled mass as the angle between the rotation axis and gravity was varied between zero and 85 degrees. Dislocation dynamics in the solid offers one possible explanation of this anisotropy.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, to appear in Journal of Low Temperature Physics - special issue on Supersolidit

On The Mobile Behavior of Solid 4^4He at High Temperatures

We report studies of solid helium contained inside a torsional oscillator, at temperatures between 1.07K and 1.87K. We grew single crystals inside the oscillator using commercially pure $^4$He and $^3$He-$^4$He mixtures containing 100 ppm $^3$He. Crystals were grown at constant temperature and pressure on the melting curve. At the end of the growth, the crystals were disordered, following which they partially decoupled from the oscillator. The fraction of the decoupled He mass was temperature and velocity dependent. Around 1K, the decoupled mass fraction for crystals grown from the mixture reached a limiting value of around 35%. In the case of crystals grown using commercially pure $^4$He at temperatures below 1.3K, this fraction was much smaller. This difference could possibly be associated with the roughening transition at the solid-liquid interface.Comment: 15 pages, 6 figure

A review of equity issues in quantitative studies on health inequalities: the case of asthma in adults

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The term 'inequities' refers to avoidable differences rooted in injustice. This review examined whether or not, and how, quantitative studies identifying inequalities in risk factors and health service utilization for asthma explicitly addressed underlying inequities. Asthma was chosen because recent decades have seen strong increases in asthma prevalence in many international settings, and inequalities in risk factors and related outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A review was conducted of studies that identified social inequalities in asthma-related outcomes or health service use in adult populations. Data were extracted on use of equity terms (objective evidence), and discussion of equity issues without using the exact terms (subjective evidence).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 219 unique articles retrieved, 21 were eligible for inclusion. None used the terms equity/inequity. While all but one article traced at least partial pathways to inequity, only 52% proposed any intervention and 55% of these interventions focused exclusively on the more proximal, clinical level.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Without more in-depth and systematic examination of inequities underlying asthma prevalence, quantitative studies may fail to provide the evidence required to inform equity-oriented interventions to address underlying circumstances restricting opportunities for health.</p

Identification of hypertensive patients with dominant affective temperaments might improve the psychopathological and cardiovascular risk stratification: a pilot, case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Although mood disorders and cardiovascular diseases have widely studied psychosomatic connections, data concerning the influence of the psychopathologically important affective temperaments in hypertension are scarce. To define a possibly higher cardiovascular risk subpopulation we investigated in well-treated hypertensive patients with dominant affective temperaments (DOM) and in well-treated hypertensive patients without dominant temperaments the level of depression and anxiety, arterial stiffness and serum Brain-derived Neurotrophic Factor (seBDNF). METHODS: 175 hypertensive patients, free of the history of psychiatric diseases, completed the TEMPS-A, Beck Depression Inventory and Hamilton Anxiety Scale questionnaires in two primary care practices. Of those 175 patients, 24 DOM patients and 24 hypertensive controls (matched in age, sex and the presence of diabetes) were selected for measurements of arterial stiffness and seBDNF level. RESULTS: Beck and Hamilton scores in DOM patients were higher compared with controls. Pulse wave velocity and augmentation index did not differ between the groups while in the DOM patients decreased brachial systolic and diastolic and central diastolic blood pressures were found compared with controls. SeBDNF was lower in the DOM group than in the controls (22.4 +/- 7.2 vs. 27.3 +/- 7.8 ng/mL, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Although similar arterial stiffness parameters were found in DOM patients, their increased depression and anxiety scores, the decreased brachial and central diastolic blood pressures as well as the decreased seBDNF might refer to their higher vulnerability regarding the development not only of major mood disorders, but also of cardiovascular complications. These data suggest that the evaluation of affective temperaments should get more attention both with regard to psychopathology and cardiovascular health management

Transcriptomic profiles of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome phenotypes in pediatric critical influenza

BackgroundInfluenza virus is responsible for a large global burden of disease, especially in children. Multiple Organ Dysfunction Syndrome (MODS) is a life-threatening and fatal complication of severe influenza infection.MethodsWe measured RNA expression of 469 biologically plausible candidate genes in children admitted to North American pediatric intensive care units with severe influenza virus infection with and without MODS. Whole blood samples from 191 influenza-infected children (median age 6.4 years, IQR: 2.2, 11) were collected a median of 27 hours following admission; for 45 children a second blood sample was collected approximately seven days later. Extracted RNA was hybridized to NanoString mRNA probes, counts normalized, and analyzed using linear models controlling for age and bacterial co-infections (FDR q&lt;0.05).ResultsComparing pediatric samples collected near admission, children with Prolonged MODS for ≥7 days (n=38; 9 deaths) had significant upregulation of nine mRNA transcripts associated with neutrophil degranulation (RETN, TCN1, OLFM4, MMP8, LCN2, BPI, LTF, S100A12, GUSB) compared to those who recovered more rapidly from MODS (n=27). These neutrophil transcripts present in early samples predicted Prolonged MODS or death when compared to patients who recovered, however in paired longitudinal samples, they were not differentially expressed over time. Instead, five genes involved in protein metabolism and/or adaptive immunity signaling pathways (RPL3, MRPL3, HLA-DMB, EEF1G, CD8A) were associated with MODS recovery within a week.ConclusionThus, early increased expression of neutrophil degranulation genes indicated worse clinical outcomes in children with influenza infection, consistent with reports in adult cohorts with influenza, sepsis, and acute respiratory distress syndrome

Surviving Sepsis Campaign: international guidelines for management of severe sepsis and septic shock, 2012

OBJECTIVE: To provide an update to the "Surviving Sepsis Campaign Guidelines for Management of Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock," last published in 2008. DESIGN: A consensus committee of 68 international experts representing 30 international organizations was convened. Nominal groups were assembled at key international meetings (for those committee members attending the conference). A formal conflict of interest policy was developed at the onset of the process and enforced throughout. The entire guidelines process was conducted independent of any industry funding. A stand-alone meeting was held for all subgroup heads, co- and vice-chairs, and selected individuals. Teleconferences and electronic-based discussion among subgroups and among the entire committee served as an integral part of the development. METHODS: The authors were advised to follow the principles of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system to guide assessment of quality of evidence from high (A) to very low (D) and to determine the strength of recommendations as strong (1) or weak (2). The potential drawbacks of making strong recommendations in the presence of low-quality evidence were emphasized. Recommendations were classified into three groups: (1) those directly targeting severe sepsis; (2) those targeting general care of the critically ill patient and considered high priority in severe sepsis; and (3) pediatric considerations. RESULTS: Key recommendations and suggestions, listed by category, include: early quantitative resuscitation of the septic patient during the first 6 h after recognition (1C); blood cultures before antibiotic therapy (1C); imaging studies performed promptly to confirm a potential source of infection (UG); administration of broad-spectrum antimicrobials therapy within 1 h of the recognition of septic shock (1B) and severe sepsis without septic shock (1C) as the goal of therapy; reassessment of antimicrobial therapy daily for de-escalation, when appropriate (1B); infection source control with attention to the balance of risks and benefits of the chosen method within 12 h of diagnosis (1C); initial fluid resuscitation with crystalloid (1B) and consideration of the addition of albumin in patients who continue to require substantial amounts of crystalloid to maintain adequate mean arterial pressure (2C) and the avoidance of hetastarch formulations (1B); initial fluid challenge in patients with sepsis-induced tissue hypoperfusion and suspicion of hypovolemia to achieve a minimum of 30 mL/kg of crystalloids (more rapid administration and greater amounts of fluid may be needed in some patients (1C); fluid challenge technique continued as long as hemodynamic improvement is based on either dynamic or static variables (UG); norepinephrine as the first-choice vasopressor to maintain mean arterial pressure ≥65 mmHg (1B); epinephrine when an additional agent is needed to maintain adequate blood pressure (2B); vasopressin (0.03 U/min) can be added to norepinephrine to either raise mean arterial pressure to target or to decrease norepinephrine dose but should not be used as the initial vasopressor (UG); dopamine is not recommended except in highly selected circumstances (2C); dobutamine infusion administered or added to vasopressor in the presence of (a) myocardial dysfunction as suggested by elevated cardiac filling pressures and low cardiac output, or (b) ongoing signs of hypoperfusion despite achieving adequate intravascular volume and adequate mean arterial pressure (1C); avoiding use of intravenous hydrocortisone in adult septic shock patients if adequate fluid resuscitation and vasopressor therapy are able to restore hemodynamic stability (2C); hemoglobin target of 7-9 g/dL in the absence of tissue hypoperfusion, ischemic coronary artery disease, or acute hemorrhage (1B); low tidal volume (1A) and limitation of inspiratory plateau pressure (1B) for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); application of at least a minimal amount of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) in ARDS (1B); higher rather than lower level of PEEP for patients with sepsis-induced moderate or severe ARDS (2C); recruitment maneuvers in sepsis patients with severe refractory hypoxemia due to ARDS (2C); prone positioning in sepsis-induced ARDS patients with a PaO (2)/FiO (2) ratio of ≤100 mm Hg in facilities that have experience with such practices (2C); head-of-bed elevation in mechanically ventilated patients unless contraindicated (1B); a conservative fluid strategy for patients with established ARDS who do not have evidence of tissue hypoperfusion (1C); protocols for weaning and sedation (1A); minimizing use of either intermittent bolus sedation or continuous infusion sedation targeting specific titration endpoints (1B); avoidance of neuromuscular blockers if possible in the septic patient without ARDS (1C); a short course of neuromuscular blocker (no longer than 48 h) for patients with early ARDS and a PaO (2)/FI O (2) 180 mg/dL, targeting an upper blood glucose ≤180 mg/dL (1A); equivalency of continuous veno-venous hemofiltration or intermittent hemodialysis (2B); prophylaxis for deep vein thrombosis (1B); use of stress ulcer prophylaxis to prevent upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with bleeding risk factors (1B); oral or enteral (if necessary) feedings, as tolerated, rather than either complete fasting or provision of only intravenous glucose within the first 48 h after a diagnosis of severe sepsis/septic shock (2C); and addressing goals of care, including treatment plans and end-of-life planning (as appropriate) (1B), as early as feasible, but within 72 h of intensive care unit admission (2C). Recommendations specific to pediatric severe sepsis include: therapy with face mask oxygen, high flow nasal cannula oxygen, or nasopharyngeal continuous PEEP in the presence of respiratory distress and hypoxemia (2C), use of physical examination therapeutic endpoints such as capillary refill (2C); for septic shock associated with hypovolemia, the use of crystalloids or albumin to deliver a bolus of 20 mL/kg of crystalloids (or albumin equivalent) over 5-10 min (2C); more common use of inotropes and vasodilators for low cardiac output septic shock associated with elevated systemic vascular resistance (2C); and use of hydrocortisone only in children with suspected or proven "absolute"' adrenal insufficiency (2C). CONCLUSIONS: Strong agreement existed among a large cohort of international experts regarding many level 1 recommendations for the best care of patients with severe sepsis. Although a significant number of aspects of care have relatively weak support, evidence-based recommendations regarding the acute management of sepsis and septic shock are the foundation of improved outcomes for this important group of critically ill patients