The impact of the unilateral EU commitment on the stability of international climate agreements

In this paper we analyze the negotiation strategy of the European Union regarding the formation of an international climate agreement for the post-2012 era. We use game theoretical stability concepts to explore incentives for key players in the climate policy game to join future climate agreements. We compare a minus 20 percent unilateral commitment strategy by the EU with a unilateral minus 30 percent emission reduction strategy for all Annex-B countries. Using a numerical integrated assessment climate-economy simulation model, we find that carbon leakage effects are negligible. The EU strategy to reduce emissions by 30% (compared to 1990 levels) by 2020 if other Annex-B countries follow does not induce participation of the USA with a similar 30% reduction commitment. However, the model shows that an appropriate initial allocation of emission allowances may stabilize a larger and more ambitious climate coalition than the Kyoto Protocol in its first commitment period.climate change, coalition theory, integrated assessment model, Kyoto protocol.

Biobank quality management in the BBMRI.be network

From as early as 2005, different guidelines and quality standards covering biobank activities and sample handling methods have been developed to improve and guarantee the reproducibility of biomarker research. Ten years on, the BBMRI.be Quality working group wanted to gauge the current situation of these aspects in the biobanks of the BBMRI.be network. To this end, two online surveys were launched (fall 2017 and fall 2018) to the biobank quality managers in the BBMRI.be network to determine the status and setup of their current quality management system (QMS) and how their QMS and related practices have evolved over a 14 month time period. All biobanks addressed by the two surveys provided a complete response (12 and 13, respectively). A QMS was implemented in 85% of biobanks, with 4 standards emerging as primary basis. Supplementary guidelines were used, with a strong preference for the ISBER best practices for biobanks. The Standard Preanalytical Code-an indicator of the preanalytical lifecycle of a biospecimen impacting the downstream analysis results-was already implemented in 50% of the biobanks while the other half intends future implementation. To assess and maintain the quality of their QMS, 62% of biobanks used self-assessment tools and 71% participated in proficiency testing schemes. The majority of biobanks had implemented procedures for general and biobank specific activities. However, policies regarding the business and sustainability aspect of biobank were only implemented in a limited number of biobanks. A clear desire for a peer-review audit was expressed by 69% of biobanks, with over half of them intending to implement the recently published biobank standard ISO20387. Overall, the biobanks of the BBMRI.be network have actively implemented a solid quality approach in their practices. The implementation of ISO 20387 may bring further professionalization of activities. Based on the needs expressed in this survey, the Quality working group will be setting up an audit program for the BBMRI.be biobanks, to enhance, harmonize and streamline their activities. On the whole, the biobanks in the BBMRI.be network are able to substantially contribute to translational research, as a primary facilitator guaranteeing high quality standards and reproducibility

Non-linear statistical downscaling of present and LGM precipitation and temperatures over Europe

International audienceLocal-scale climate information is increasingly needed for the study of past, present and future climate changes. In this study we develop a non-linear statistical downscaling method to generate local temperatures and precipitation values from large-scale variables of a Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (here CLIMBER). Our statistical downscaling scheme is based on the concept of Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), capturing non-linearities via non-parametric techniques. Our GAMs are calibrated on the present Western Europe climate. For this region, annual GAMs (i.e. models based on 12 monthly values per location) are fitted by combining two types of large-scale explanatory variables: geographical (e.g. topographical information) and physical (i.e. entirely simulated by the CLIMBER model). To evaluate the adequacy of the non-linear transfer functions fitted on the present Western European climate, they are applied to different spatial and temporal large-scale conditions. Local projections for present North America and Northern Europe climates are obtained and compared to local observations. This partially addresses the issue of spatial robustness of our transfer functions by answering the question "does our statistical model remain valid when applied to large-scale climate conditions from a region different from the one used for calibration?". To asses their temporal performances, local projections for the Last Glacial Maximum period are derived and compared to local reconstructions and General Circulation Model outputs. Our downscaling methodology performs adequately for the Western Europe climate. Concerning the spatial and temporal evaluations, it does not behave as well for Northern America and Northern Europe climates because the calibration domain may be too different from the targeted regions. The physical explanatory variables alone are not capable of downscaling realistic values. However, the inclusion of geographical-type variables – such as altitude, advective continentality and moutains effect on wind (W–slope) – as GAM explanatory variables clearly improves our local projections