Une approche historique du développement comparé : Acemoglu, Johnson, Robinson (AJR) et Jared Diamond sont-ils complémentaires ?

Etudes & documentsIn this paper we provide empirical evidence of the complementarities between the geographical approach of Diamond (1997) and the institutional approach of Acemoglu et al. (2002) to explain gaps in economic performance worldwide since 11, 000 BC until today. While the biogeographical endowments of Diamond are suitable to explain development paths until 1500 AD, the reversal of fortune of Acemoglu et al. (2002) is able to explain gaps in economic performance since 1500 AD. Those results display the positive impact of institutional framework on economic development, and focus on the complementary of two different fields of literature on long-run development

Evaluating Treatment Effect and Causal Effect of Fiscal Rules on Procyclicality New assessments on old debate: rules vs. discretion

This article is the first to renews the old debate of "rules versus. discretion" by introducing propensity score matching methods in macro analysis, such as Tapsoba (2012), and by using instrumental methods, to consider the national stability culture. By taking into account, at the same time, the self-selection problem and the omitted unobserved factor bias, in a sample of 126 countries of all level of development over the period 1985-2010, we provide strong evidence about the positive causal effect of fiscal rules adoption on the reduction of fiscal policy procyclicality. We find an asymmetrical impact, since fiscal rules adoption contributed to upgrade budget balance in periods of expansion, while it doesn't increase budget deficit in periods of recession. Furthermore, we show that the budget balance rules and the debt rules are more effective to dampen procyclicality than expenditure rules. We also provide evidence that the coverage of fiscal rules is not a critical issue to strength against procyclicality. Empirical results also displays the positive impact of the adoption of flexible rules, but also the adoption of fiscal rules combined to improve policy responsiveness. Finally, we find that FRs are effective when taking into account the national stability culture. This positive impact of fiscal rules adoption on fiscal policy cyclicality comes from an improvement of fiscal policy disciplinary, by ensuring a sustainable path of deficit and debt, or by smoothing business cycles

Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation of Leaders or Bias from Research? A Meta-Regression Analysis

Despite a long history of research on political budget cycles, their existence and magnitudeare still in question. By conducting a systematic analysis of the existing literature we intendto clarify the debate. Based on data collected from over 1,700 regressions and 58 studies, our meta-analysis suggests that leaders do manipulate fiscal tools in order to be re-elected but to an extent that is significantly exaggerated by scholars. However, we show the incumbents' strategy differ depending on which tools they leverage. Finally, we discuss in further details how authors' methodological choices and country institutions affect political budget cycles

Political Budget Cycles: Manipulation from Leaders or Manipulation from Researchers? Evidence from a Meta-Regression Analysis

Despite a long history of research on political budget cycles, their existence and magnitude are still in question. By conducting a systematic analysis of the existing literature we intend to clarify the debate. Based on data collected from over 1; 700 regressions and 57 studies, our meta-analysis suggests that leaders do manipulate fiscal tools in order to be re-elected but to an extent that is significantly exaggerated by scholars. However, we show the incumbents' strategy differs depending on which tools they leverage. Finally, we discuss in further details how authors' methodological choices and country institutions affect political budget cycles

Forms of Democracies and Financial Development

Etudes & documentsThe political economy of finance literature emphasizes the critical role of political institutions in promoting financial development. Related empirical findings highlight a robust positive effect of democratic regimes on financial development compared to dictatorships. However, no study focused so far on identifying the precise political institutions explaining the financial development enhancing effect of democracies. In this paper, we study the effects of disaggregated political institutions on financial development along three institutional dimensions, namely forms of government, electoral rules and state forms. Using a large panel of 140 countries over 1984-2007, we show that institutional details are of crucial importance, since the positive effect of democracies on financial development clearly depends on the precise institutional dimensions at work, namely: parliamentary governments and, to a lesser extent federal states. Thus, our study contributes to the institutional design debate, by showing that the simple promotion of democratic regimes might not be sufficient to foster financial development

LGWP & HC Refrigerants Solubility Tests Performed in Running Scroll Compressor

This paper presents the results of investigations on Low Global Warming Potential refrigerants and R290 solubility with different lubricants. Solubility impacts a lot the final lubricant-refrigerant mixture reaching the bearing lubricant inlet and in the same way can impact compressor reliability on wet vapor flowing back to compressor inlet Experimental data, measured in operating compressors, are compared to static steady state values coming from PVT plots. R407C and R410A, two well-known HFC refrigerants, are added as a reference. This work highlights the differences between dynamic solubility (tests performed in a compressor) and static solubility (from PVT plots). A comparison of the impact on the dynamic solubility has been done when a steering feature is added. This work allows us to define the best compromise between different lubricants in these new applications

Acute Intake of a Grape and Blueberry Polyphenol-Rich Extract Ameliorates Cognitive Performance in Healthy Young Adults During a Sustained Cognitive Effort

Despite an increasing level of evidence supporting the individual beneficial effect of polyphenols on cognitive performance, information related to the potential synergistic action of these phytonutrients on cognitive performance during a prolonged cognitive effort is currently lacking. This study investigated the acute and sustained action of a polyphenols-rich extract from grape and blueberry (PEGB), on working memory and attention in healthy students during a prolonged and intensive cognitive effort. In this randomised, cross-over, double blind study, 30 healthy students consumed 600 mg of PEGB or a placebo. Ninety minutes after product intake, cognitive functions were assessed for one hour using a cognitive demand battery including serial subtraction tasks, a rapid visual information processing (RVIP) task and a visual analogical scale. Flow-mediated dilation (FMD) and plasma flavan-3-ols metabolites quantification were also performed. A 2.5-fold increase in serial three subtraction variation net scores was observed following PEGB consumption versus placebo (p < 0.001). A trend towards significance was also observed with RVIP percentage of correct answers (p = 0.058). No treatment effect was observed on FMD. Our findings suggest that consumption of PEGB coupled with a healthy lifestyle may be a safe alternative to acutely improve working memory and attention during a sustained cognitive effort

L’approche historique du développement comparé : des visions complémentaires ?

Dans cet article nous montrons que la théorie des dotations biogéographiques de Diamond (1997) et que la théorie du renversement de la fortune d’Acemoglu, Johnson et Robinson (2002), loin d’être substituables, sont complémentaires pour expliquer les écarts de développement économique dans le monde, depuis le début de l’holocène, en 11000 av. J.-C., jusqu’à aujourd’hui. Empiriquement, nous montrons la complémentarité de ces deux approches théoriques à l’aide d’un modèle structurel et de l’emploi de l’estimateur des triples moindres carrés, à information complète, sur un échantillon le plus large possible de pays de tout niveau de développement et sur un échantillon d’anciennes colonies Européennes. Ces résultats, relativement optimistes, confirment que les institutions agissent sur le niveau de développement. Par ailleurs ces résultats insistent sur l’aspect complémentaire de théories du développement qui sont trop souvent jugées concurrentes, à première vue

Nouvel empirisme en économie politique transdisciplinaire : essais sur les effets économiques des modalités démocratiques

L'objet de la présente thèse concerne l'étude de l'impact économique de trois modalités démocratiques, à savoir (i) l'agenda électoral, (ii) l'affiliation partisane des dirigeants en place dans un cadre de multipartisme, et (iii) les changements de gouvernance constitutionnellement définis. Afin d'introduire notre étude, nous décrivons la relation qui existe entre les modalités démocratiques et la démocratie directe d'une part et la politique budgétaire d'autre part, aux Etats-Unis sur la période 1790-2014 dans l'Introduction Générale. Dans le Chapitre 2 nous étudions l'effet authentique et potentiellement néfaste des cycles politico-budgétaires. Notre méta-analyse suggère que les dirigeants nationaux manipulent effectivement le budget dans un but de réélection mais l'ampleur du phénomène est largement exagérée par la littérature. Toutefois, le biais de publication mis en lumière s'est significativement réduit lors des 25 dernières années de recherches. Dans le Chapitre 3 nous étudions comment l'affiliation partisane des gouverneurs américains affecte le statut de pauvreté des immigrants, aux Etats-Unis, sur la période 1994-2014. Pour ce faire, nous comparons le niveau de pauvreté des immigrants dans les Etats gouvernés par les Démocrates au niveau de pauvreté des immigrants constaté dans les Etats gouvernés par les Républicains. En accord avec la littérature sur l'affiliation partisane, nous trouvons que les immigrants ont plus d'opportunités de sortir de la pauvreté sous les Démocrates que sous les Républicains. Une analyse formelle de médiation révèle que nos résultats empiriques sont médiatisés par un meilleur accès au marché du travail et possiblement de meilleures rétributions du travail, pour les immigrants. Dans le Chapitre 4 nous cherchons à vérifier l'évolution des notations souveraines lors des périodes d'inauguration des nouveaux dirigeants sur un échantillon de 18 pays d'Amérique Latine et des Caraïbes ayant des systèmes présidentiels. A partir de données de panel journalières s'étendant du 1er janvier 1994 au 31 décembre 2014, nous trouvons que les notations souveraines sont de meilleure qualité durant les périodes d'inauguration anticipées comparées aux autres périodes d'inauguration. En outre, nos résultats montrent que durant ces périodes d'inauguration anticipées, les notations sont encore meilleures lorsque le dirigeant entrant (i) est économiquement de droite, (ii) dispose d'un diplôme universitaire d'un pays de l'OCDE, (iii) a un parcours professionnel traditionnel, (iv) a une approche non populiste, et (v) dispose de marges électorales de victoire importantes. Il apparaît également un biais de genre potentiel à la faveur des nouveaux dirigeants de sexe masculin. En prenant avantage d'un modèle de durée et de régressions de Cox -- modèle à risque proportionnel, nous mettons en lumière que les périodes d'inauguration des dirigeants affectent également la probabilité instantanée de dégradation des notations souveraines. Enfin, dans la Conclusion Générale nous explorons les racines des pensées antisystèmes en Occident, puis nous discutons des avantages et inconvénients de quelques formes alternatives de démocratie, à savoir (i) la démocratie directe, (ii) le tirage au sort, et (iii) le développement participatif comme bien public. Finalement, nous explorons les controverses concernant les formes alternatives de démocratie sur l'agora virtuelle que constitue Twitter.The aim of the present dissertation is to empirically investigate the economic impact of three democratic modalities, namely (i) the electoral agenda; (ii) the partisan affiliation of incumbents in a multipartism framework; and (iii) constitutionally defined leadership changes. To introduce the scope of the dissertation we describe the democratic modalities and direct democracy behind the U.S. fiscal policy from 1790 to 2014, in the General Introduction.In Chapter 2 we study the genuine detrimental effect of political budget cycles. Our meta-analysis suggests that national leaders do manipulate fiscal tools in order to be re-elected, but to an extent that is significantly exaggerated in the literature. The publication selection bias highlighted has nonetheless been reduced during the past 25 years of research. In Chapter 3 we investigate how governors' partisan affiliation affects the poverty status of immigrants to the U.S for the period 1994-2014. To this end, we compare the poverty outcomes of immigrants in states ruled by Democratic governors relative to the outcomes for those in states ruled by Republican governors. Consistent with the literature on partisan affiliation, we find that immigrants are more likely to get out of poverty in states with Democratic governors than states with Republican governors. A formal mediation analysis reveals that the empirical results are mediated through better access to the labor market and possibly through higher wages and labor earnings for immigrants. In Chapter 4 we assess whether sovereign credit ratings change during the inauguration periods of incoming leaders, on a sample of 18 Latin American and Caribbean countries with presidential systems. Building on a daily panel dataset covering the period from January 1, 1994 to December 31, 2014, we find that credit ratings are better during anticipated inauguration periods compared to other inauguration periods. Moreover, our results reveal that, during anticipated inauguration periods, incoming leaders with (i) an economically right-wing orientation; (ii) an OECD college degree; (iii) a traditional professional background; (iv) a non-populist approach; and (v) large electoral margins of victory are associated to even better ratings. There also appears to be a potential gender bias effect in favor of male incoming leaders. Last but not least, the quality of the credit rating also matters. In the General Conclusion we explore the roots of anti-systemism in the West, then we discuss some alternative forms of democracy, and we explore the controversies regarding the alternative forms of democracy on the virtual \emph{agora} of Twitter