A Computational Theory of Subjective Probability

In this article we demonstrate how algorithmic probability theory is applied to situations that involve uncertainty. When people are unsure of their model of reality, then the outcome they observe will cause them to update their beliefs. We argue that classical probability cannot be applied in such cases, and that subjective probability must instead be used. In Experiment 1 we show that, when judging the probability of lottery number sequences, people apply subjective rather than classical probability. In Experiment 2 we examine the conjunction fallacy and demonstrate that the materials used by Tversky and Kahneman (1983) involve model uncertainty. We then provide a formal mathematical proof that, for every uncertain model, there exists a conjunction of outcomes which is more subjectively probable than either of its constituents in isolation.Comment: Maguire, P., Moser, P. Maguire, R. & Keane, M.T. (2013) "A computational theory of subjective probability." In M. Knauff, M. Pauen, N. Sebanz, & I. Wachsmuth (Eds.), Proceedings of the 35th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (pp. 960-965). Austin, TX: Cognitive Science Societ

'See No Evil' Collusion in Northern Ireland

The publication of the official report into the 1994 Loughinisland massacre, when loyalist gunmen shot dead six people in a small, rural bar, provides an opportunity to examine the nature of institutionalised collusion, the state practices it involved and the sectarianised social order which made it possible during the conflict in Northern Ireland. Building on an earlier analysis of the colonial and counter-insurgency roots of collusion (Race & Class, 57, no. 2) this article provides a commentary on the findings of the Loughinisland report and explores two issues. The first concerns new evidence (directly contradicting earlier official inquiries) of state collusion in the importation of arms used by loyalists to escalate their campaign of assassination in this period. Second, the extent to which collusive practices facilitated the actions of loyalist paramilitaries and confounded the investigation of the mass killings at Loughinisland as elsewhere. In terms of both, it will be argued, there is a need to place an understanding of collusion in the wider context of a social order shaped by long-term sectarianised social divisions and violence, embedded in localised power structures, which framed the very institutions and agencies of the state, not least the police and other state forces

Education as a Predictor of Antidepressant and Anxiolytic medication use after Bereavement: a population based record linkage study.

Purpose: Educational attainment has been shown to be positively associated with mental health and a potential buffer to stressful events. One stressful life event likely to affect everyone in their lifetime is bereavement. This paper assesses the effect of educational attainment on mental health post bereavement.Methods: By utilising large administrative datasets, linking Census returns to death records and prescribed medication data, we analysed the bereavement exposure of 208,332 individuals aged 25-74 years. Two-level multi-level logistic regression models were constructed to determine the likelihood of antidepressant medication use (a proxy of mental ill-health) post bereavement given level of educational attainment. Results: Individuals who are bereaved have greater antidepressant use than those who are not bereaved, with over a quarter (26.5%) of those bereaved by suicide in receipt of antidepressant medication compared to just 12.4% of those not bereaved. Within individuals bereaved by a sudden death those with a University Degree or higher qualifications are 73% less likely to be in receipt of antidepressant medication compared to those with no qualifications, after full adjustment for demographic, socio-economic and area factors (OR=0.27, 95% CI 0.09,0.75). Higher educational attainment and no qualifications have an equivalent effect for those bereaved by suicide. Conclusions: Education may protect against poor mental health, as measured by the use of antidepressant medication, post bereavement, except in those bereaved by suicide. This is likely due to the improved cognitive, personal and psychological skills gained from time spent in education. <br/

Setting and motivation in the decision to participate: An approach to the engagement of diverse samples in mobile research.

Internet and mobile based research are powerful tools in the creation of large, cohort studies (eCohort). However, recent analysis indicates that an underrepresentation of minority and low income groups in these studies might exceed that found in traditional research [1-5]. In this report, we present findings from an experiment in research engagement using the Eureka Research Platform developed to enroll diverse populations in support of biomedical clinical research. This experiment involved the recruitment of African American and Latino participants in a smartphone based survey at a temporary, charitable, dental event sponsored, in part, by the research team, in order to explore the impact of setting and approach on recruitment outcomes. 211 participants enrolled including a significant representation of African Americans (51%) and Latinos (31%) and those with education levels at high school or less (37%). Interviews conducted after the study confirmed that our recruitment efforts within the context of a service event affected the decision to participate. While further research is necessary, this experiment holds promise for the engagement of underrepresented groups in research

DO IT Trial: vitamin D Outcomes and Interventions in Toddlers - a TARGet Kids! randomized controlled trial.

BackgroundVitamin D levels are alarmingly low (&lt;75 nmol/L) in 65-70% of North American children older than 1 year. An increased risk of viral upper respiratory tract infections (URTI), asthma-related hospitalizations and use of anti-inflammatory medication have all been linked with low vitamin D. No study has determined whether wintertime vitamin D supplementation can reduce the risk of URTI and asthma exacerbations, two of the most common and costly illnesses of early childhood. The objectives of this study are: 1) to compare the effect of 'high dose' (2000 IU/day) vs. 'standard dose' (400 IU/day) vitamin D supplementation in achieving reductions in laboratory confirmed URTI and asthma exacerbations during the winter in preschool-aged Canadian children; and 2) to assess the effect of 'high dose' vitamin D supplementation on vitamin D serum levels and specific viruses that cause URTI.Methods/designThis study is a pragmatic randomized controlled trial. Over 4 successive winters we will recruit 750 healthy children 1-5 years of age. Participating physicians are part of a primary healthcare research network called TARGet Kids!. Children will be randomized to the 'standard dose' or 'high dose' oral supplemental vitamin D for a minimum of 4 months (200 children per group). Parents will obtain a nasal swab from their child with each URTI, report the number of asthma exacerbations and complete symptom checklists. Unscheduled physician visits for URTIs and asthma exacerbations will be recorded. By May, a blood sample will be drawn to determine vitamin D serum levels. The primary analysis will be a comparison of URTI rate between study groups using a Poisson regression model. Secondary analyses will compare vitamin D serum levels, asthma exacerbations and the frequency of specific viral agents between groups.DiscussionIdentifying whether vitamin D supplementation of preschoolers can reduce wintertime viral URTIs and asthma exacerbations and what dose is optimal may reduce population wide morbidity and associated health care and societal costs. This information will assist in determining practice and health policy recommendations related to vitamin D supplementation in healthy Canadian preschoolers

||PSL: A Parallel Lisp for the DADO Machine

We describe a system level programming language and integrated environment for programming development on the DADO parallel computer. In addition a set of language constructs augmenting LISP for programming parallel computation on tree structured parallel machine are defined. We discuss the architecture or the DADO machine and present several examples to illustrate the language. In particular we describe how the language provides an integrated approach to the problem or parallel software design. Parallel algorithms may be designed analyzed on a sequential machine under simulation and then simply recompiled to run on a parallel machine. In concluding sections we outline the implementation using the Portable Standard LISP Compiler

New Questions of Evidence: Comment on Shore and Wright's 'Audit Culture Revisited: Rankings, Ratings, and the Reassembling of Society'

In 2012, an Irish magazine introduced the Dublin-based director of “government services” at one of the Big Four auditing firms. The executive spoke from expertise in organizational change: transparency and efficiency would inevitably flow, he explained, from reengineering state institutions to be measurably customer focused according to best practice. The magazine provided another update on the quiet revolution that Shore and Wright have tracked for more than a decade—the relentless rise of audit culture

Global and EU Security: A Forum Essay

When I look at social anthropology today, from the perspective of my own research on security, I see extraordinary potential. I see the intellectual richness of anthropology informing scholarship and activism, and I see the methodological and ethical challenges that we need to face in order to realise this potential. The ‘bleeding edge’ topic of security brings a lot into sharp focus. Today, security discourses and practices abound, provoking French philosopher Frédéric Gros to proclaim ours as the age of security

Constructing Culture in the West of Ireland: Representations of Identity in Text and Space

This article considers the apparent homogenisation of cultures. Contrary to this view, I focus on the incorporation of novel circumstances into existing structures in a small Irish fishing community displaced by modernity. One cannot consider them as separately structured, however. I use Foucauldian analysis to suggest that modernity, in repressing separateness, may also be productive of it

On the Other Side of the Hyphen: Vietnamese-Irish Identity

In August 1979 the first of a small number of refugees from Vietnam arrived in Dublin. They came to Ireland via camps in Hong Kong and Malaysia with harrowing tales of escape and of long periods of travel across the South China Sea. These were the so-called ‘Boat People’, whose plight was captured in newspaper headlines from the late 1970s onwards. Those who came to Ireland—some 212 persons in the first instance—were invited to do so by the Irish Government. Religious and non-governmental organisations carried out much of the resettlement work, however. The majority of the refugees were dispersed to a variety of locations throughout Ireland, from Tralee and Portlaoise to Cork City. In the early 1980s most re-migrated to Dublin. This is the story of the Vietnamese-Irish, of takeaway businesses, achievement in education, family, diaspora and identity. Much of this story is told in the words and through the eyes of the people themselves. What emerges is an ethnographic portrait of a minority confronting its own identity in a fastchanging Irish society. This thesis is an exploration of Vietnamese-Irish identity. In order to explore identity for this small, yet heterogeneous and widely dispersed minority, my emphasis has been on a number of ‘sites’, such as education, work and homes. Theoretically, I explore spatial dimensions of identity in detail, as well as arguing against current approaches to migration and minority life in Ireland