Estimates of live-tree carbon stores in the Pacific Northwest are sensitive to model selection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Estimates of live-tree carbon stores are influenced by numerous uncertainties. One of them is model-selection uncertainty: one has to choose among multiple empirical equations and conversion factors that can be plausibly justified as locally applicable to calculate the carbon store from inventory measurements such as tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH). Here we quantify the model-selection uncertainty for the five most numerous tree species in six counties of northwest Oregon, USA.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results of our study demonstrate that model-selection error may introduce 20 to 40% uncertainty into a live-tree carbon estimate, possibly making this form of error the largest source of uncertainty in estimation of live-tree carbon stores. The effect of model selection could be even greater if models are applied beyond the height and DBH ranges for which they were developed.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Model-selection uncertainty is potentially large enough that it could limit the ability to track forest carbon with the precision and accuracy required by carbon accounting protocols. Without local validation based on detailed measurements of usually destructively sampled trees, it is very difficult to choose the best model when there are several available. Our analysis suggests that considering tree form in equation selection may better match trees to existing equations and that substantial gaps exist, in terms of both species and diameter ranges, that are ripe for new model-building effort.</p

Chronic Respiratory Failure in Neonates

The original publication on bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) by Northway and collaborators described a group of preterm infants who after prolonged mechanical ventilation developed chronic respiratory failure and characteristic radiographic findings (Northway et al. 1967). The lung damage was attributed primarily to the use of aggressive positive-pressure ventilation and high inspired oxygen concentrations. Today, with the widespread use of antenatal corticosteroids and the use of postnatal surfactant and less aggressive mechanical ventilation, this severe form of BPD has been replaced by a milder form that presents in the more immature infants who frequently have only mild initial respiratory disease (Charafeddine et al. 1999; Parker et al. 1992; Rojas et al. 1995). Therefore, these infants are not exposed to the very high airway pressures or oxygen concentrations, the two main factors in the pathogenesis of the original form of BPD. This milder form of the disease has been described as “New BPD.” This new presentation has created some inconsistencies and confusion in the definition and the diagnostic criteria of BPD (Bancalari et al. 2003)