Will a rising sea sink some estuarine wetland ecosystems?

Sea-level rise associatedwith climate change presents amajor challenge to plant diversity and ecosystemservice provision in coastal wetlands. In this study,we investigate the effect of sea-level rise on benthos, vegetation, and ecosystem diversity in a tidal wetland in westWales, the UK. Present relationships between plant communities and environmental variableswere investigated through 50 plots atwhich vegetation (species and coverage), hydrological (surface or groundwater depth, conductivity) and soil (matrix chroma, presence or absence ofmottles, organic content, particle size) data were collected. Benthic communities were sampled at intervals along a continuum from saline to freshwater. To ascertain future changes to the wetlands' hydrology, a GIS-based empirical model was developed. Using a LiDAR derived land surface, the relative effect of peat accumulation and rising sea levels were modelled over 200 years to determine how frequently portions of the wetland will be inundated by mean sea level, mean high water spring and mean high water neap conditions. The model takes into account changing extents of peat accumulation as hydrological conditions alter. Model results show that changes to the wetland hydrology will initially be slow. However, changes in frequency and extent of inundation reach a tipping point 125 to 175 years from2010 due to the extremely low slope of the wetland. From then onwards, large portions of the wetland become flooded at every flood tide and saltwater intrusion becomes more common. This will result in a reduction in marsh biodiversity with plant communities switching toward less diverse and occasionally monospecific communities that are more salt tolerant.IS

Track E Implementation Science, Health Systems and Economics

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/138412/1/jia218443.pd

Large interferometer for exoplanets (LIFE). I. Improved exoplanet detection yield estimates for a large mid-infrared space-interferometer mission

Stars and planetary system

Geomorphology and dynamics of the Mfolozi River floodplain, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

The geomorphology and dynamics of the Mfolozi River floodplain and estuary, located in the subtropical region of northern KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, were considered with respect to existing models of avulsion and alluvial stratigraphy. The Mfolozi River floodplain may be divided into regions based on longitudinal slope and dominant geomorphic processes. Confinement of the Mfolozi River above the floodplain has led to the development of an alluvial fan at the floodplain head, characterized by a relatively high sedimentation rate and avulsion frequency, at a gradient of 0.10%. The lower floodplain is controlled by sea level, with an average gradient of 0.05%. Between the two lies an extremely flat region with an average gradient of 0.02%, which may be controlled by faulting of the underlying bedrock. Avulsion occurrences on the Mfolozi floodplain are linked to the two main zones of aggradation, the alluvial fan at the floodplain head, and toward the river mouth in the lower floodplain. On the alluvial fan, normal flow conditions result in scour from local steepening. During infrequent, large flood events, the channel becomes overwhelmed with sediment and stream flow, and avulses. The resulting avulsion is regional, and affects the location of the channel from the floodplain head to the river mouth. Deposits resulting from such avulsions contribute significantly to the total volume of sediment stored in the floodplain, and tend to persist for long periods after the avulsion. Contrastingly, on the lower floodplain, reaching of the avulsion threshold is not necessarily linked to large flood events, but rather to long-term aggradation on the channel that decreases the existing channels gradient while increasing its elevation above the surrounding floodplain. Resultant avulsions tend to be local and do not contribute significantly to the overall volume of floodplain alluvium

BBVA POSICIONAMIENTO 20 02 ONLINE

OBJECTIVE:To test the hypothesis that measles infection increases the incidence of non-measles infectious diseases over a prolonged period of time. DESIGN:A population-based matched cohort study. DATA SOURCES:This study examined children aged 1-15 years in The Health Improvement Network UK general practice medical records database. Participants included 2228 patients diagnosed with measles between 1990 and 2014, which were matched on age, sex, general practitioner practice and calendar year with 19,930 children without measles. All controls had received at least one measles vaccination. Children with a history of immune-compromising conditions or with immune-suppressive treatment were excluded. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES:Incidence rate ratio (IRR) of infections, anti-infective prescriptions and all-cause hospitalisations following measles in predetermined periods using multivariate analysis to adjust for confounding variables. RESULTS:In children with measles, the incidence rate for non-measles infectious disease was significantly increased in each time period assessed up to 5 years postmeasles: 43% in the first month (IRR: 1.43; 95% CI 1.22 to 1.68), 22% from month one to the first year (IRR: 1.22; 95% CI 1.14 to 1.31), 10% from year 1 to 2.5 years (IRR: 1.10; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.19) and 15% (IRR: 1.15; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.25) in years 2.5 to 5 years of follow-up. Children with measles were more than three times as likely to receive an anti-infective prescription in the first month and 15%-24% more likely between the first month and 5 years. The rate of hospitalisation in children with measles was increased only in the month following diagnosis but not thereafter (IRR: 2.83; 95% CI 1.72 to 4.67). CONCLUSION:Following measles, children had increased rates of diagnosed infections, requiring increased prescribing of antimicrobial therapies. This population-based matched cohort study supports the hypothesis that measles has a prolonged impact on host resistance to non-measles infectious diseases

Kelp and seaweed feeding by High-Arctic wild reindeer under extreme winter conditions

One challenge in current Arctic ecological research is to understand and predict how wildlife may respond to increased frequencies of “extreme” weather events. Heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is one such extreme phenomenon associated with winter warming that is not well studied but has potentially profound ecosystem effects through changes in snow-pack properties and ice formation. Here, we document how ice-locked pastures following substantial amounts of ROS forced coastal Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) to use marine habitat in late winter 2010. A thick coat of ground ice covered 98% of the lowland ranges, almost completely blocking access to terrestrial forage. Accordingly, a population census revealed that 13% of the total population (n=26 of 206 individuals) and 21% of one sub-population were feeding on washed-up kelp and seaweed on the sea-ice foot. Calves were overrepresented among the individuals that applied this foraging strategy, which probably represents a last attempt to avoid starvation under particularly severe foraging conditions. The study adds to the impression that extreme weather events such as heavy ROS and associated icing can trigger large changes in the realized foraging niche of Arctic herbivores