Prognostic study of continuous variables (white blood cell count, peripheral blast cell count, haemoglobin level, platelet count and age) in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Analysis of a population of 1545 children treated by the French Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia Group (FRALLE)

Many cutpoints have been proposed to categorize continuous variables in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (white blood cell count, peripheral blast cell count, haemoglobin level, platelet count and age), and have been used to define therapeutic subgroups. This variation in the choice of cutpoints leads to a bias called the ‘Will Rogers phenomenon’. The aim of this study was to analyse variations in the relative risk of relapse or death as a function of continuous prognostic variables in childhood ALL and to discuss the choice of cutpoints. We studied a population of 1545 children with ALL enrolled in three consecutive protocols named FRALLE 83, FRALLE 87 and FRALLE 89. We estimated the risk of relapse or death associated with different values of each continuous prognostic variable by dividing the sample into quintiles of the distribution of the variables. As regards age, a category of children under 1 year of age was distinguished and the rest of the population was divided into quintiles. The floated variance method was used to calculate the confidence interval of each relative risk, including the reference category. The relation between the quantitative prognostic factors and the risk was monotonic for each variable, except for age. For the white blood cell count (WBC), the relation is log linear. The risk associated with WBC values in the upper quintile was 1.9 times higher than that in the lower quintile. The peripheral blast cell count correlated strongly with WBC (correlation coefficient: 0.99). The risk increased with the haemoglobin level, and the risk in the upper quintile was 1.3 times higher than that in the lower quintile. The risk decreased as the platelet count increased: the risk in the lower quintile was 1.2 times higher than that in the upper quintile. The risk increased gradually with increasing age above one year. The small subgroup of patients (2.5% of the population) under 1 year of age at diagnosis had a risk 2.6 times higher than the reference category of patients between 3 and 4.3 years of age. When the risk associated with a quantitative prognostic factor varies monotonously, the selection of a cutpoint is arbitrary and represents a loss of information. Despite this loss of information, such arbitrary categorization may be necessary to define therapeutic stratification. In that case, consensus cutpoints must be defined if one wants to avoid the Will Rogers phenomenon. The cutpoints proposed by the Rome workshop and the NCI are arbitrary, but may represent an acceptable convention. © 2000 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Clinical response after two cycles compared to HER2, Ki-67, p53, and bcl-2 in independently predicting a pathological complete response after preoperative chemotherapy in patients with operable carcinoma of the breast

Introduction To investigate the predictive value of clinical and biological markers for a pathological complete remission after a preoperative dose-dense regimen of doxorubicin and docetaxel, with or without tamoxifen, in primary operable breast cancer. Methods Patients with a histologically confirmed diagnosis of previously untreated, operable, and measurable primary breast cancer (tumour (T), nodes (N) and metastases (M) score: T2-3(>= 3 cm) N0-2 M0) were treated in a prospectively randomised trial with four cycles of dose-dense (bi-weekly) doxorubicin and docetaxel (ddAT) chemotherapy, with or without tamoxifen, prior to surgery. Clinical and pathological parameters (menopausal status, clinical tumour size and nodal status, grade, and clinical response after two cycles) and a panel of biomarkers (oestrogen and progesterone receptors, Ki-67, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), p53, bcl-2, all detected by immunohistochemistry) were correlated with the detection of a pathological complete response (pCR). Results A pCR was observed in 9.7% in 248 patients randomised in the study and in 8.6% in the subset of 196 patients with available tumour tissue. Clinically negative axillary lymph nodes, poor tumour differentiation, negative oestrogen receptor status, negative progesterone receptor status, and loss of bcl-2 were significantly predictive for a pCR in a univariate logistic regression model, whereas in a multivariate analysis only the clinical nodal status and hormonal receptor status provided significantly independent information. Backward stepwise logistic regression revealed a response after two cycles, with hormone receptor status and lymph-node status as significant predictors. Patients with a low percentage of cells stained positive for Ki-67 showed a better response when treated with tamoxifen, whereas patients with a high percentage of Ki-67 positive cells did not have an additional benefit when treated with tamoxifen. Tumours overexpressing HER2 showed a similar response to that in HER2-negative patients when treated without tamoxifen, but when HER2-positive tumours were treated with tamoxifen, no pCR was observed. Conclusion Reliable prediction of a pathological complete response after preoperative chemotherapy is not possible with clinical and biological factors routinely determined before start of treatment. The response after two cycles of chemotherapy is a strong but dependent predictor. The only independent factor in this subset of patients was bcl-2. Trial registration number NCT0054382

Day-care, early common infections and childhood acute leukaemia: a multicentre French case–control study

We conducted a case–control study to investigate the role of early infections in the aetiology of childhood acute leukaemias. The study included 280 incident cases (240 acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and 40 acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia) and 288 hospital controls, frequency matched by age, gender, hospital, catchment area of the hospital and ethnic origin. Data were obtained from standardised face-to-face interviews of the mothers. The interviews included questions on early common infections, day-care attendance, breast-feeding, birth order and infantile diseases. Odds ratios were estimated using an unconditional regression model including the stratification variables, parental socio-economic status and perinatal characteristics. Birth order was not associated with childhood leukaemia (acute lymphoblastic or acute non-lymphoblastic). A statistically-significant inverse association was observed between childhood leukaemia and day-care attendance (odds ratio=0.6, 95% Confidence Interval=(0.4–1.0)), repeated early common infections (⩾4 per year before age two, odds ratio=0.6 (0.4–1.0)), surgical procedures for ear–nose–throat infections before age two (odds ratio=0.5 (0.2–1.0)) and prolonged breast-feeding (⩾6 months, odds ratio=0.5 (0.2–1.0)). In the multivariate model including day-care attendance, early common infections and breast-feeding, results concerning breast-feeding remained unchanged. A statistically significant interaction between day-care attendance and repeated early common infections was observed. When the interaction was taken into account, the simple effects of day-care and early common infections disappeared (odds ratio=1.1 (0.5–2.3) and odds ratio=0.8 (0.5–1.3), respectively) while the joint effect of day-care attendance and early common infections was negatively associated with childhood leukaemia (odds ratio=0.3 (0.1–0.8)). All the above associations were observed both for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia and acute non-lymphoblastic leukaemia. Our results support Greaves' hypothesis, even though they are not specific of common leukaemia

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Age and high-dose methotrexate are associated to clinical acute encephalopathy in FRALLE 93 trial for acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children.

International audienceThe objective of the study was to assess acute neurotoxicity associated with triple intrathecal therapy (TIT)+/-high-dose methotrexate (HD MTX) in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). 1395 children were enrolled on FRALLE 93 protocol from 1993 to 1999. Lower-risk group (LR, n=182) were randomized to weekly low-dose MTX at 25 mg/m(2)/week (LD MTX, n=81) or HD MTX at 1.5 g/m(2)/2 weeks x 6 (n=77). Intermediate-risk group (IR, n=672) were randomized to LD MTX (n=290) or HD MTX at 8 g/m(2)/2 weeks x 4 (n=316). Higher-risk group (HR, n=541) prednisone-responder patients received LD MTX and cranial radiotherapy. HR group steroid resistant cases were grafted (autologous or allogenic). TIT (MTX, cytarabine and methylprednisolone) was given every 2 weeks during 16-18 weeks and every 3 months during maintenance therapy in LR and IR patients. 52 patients (3.7%) developed neurotoxicity. Isolated seizures: n=15 (1.1%), peripheral and spinal neuropathy: n=17 (1.2%) and encephalopathy: n=20 (1.4%). Age >10 years was significantly associated with neurotoxicity (P=0.01) and use of HD MTX is associated with encephalopathy (P=0.03). Sequels are reported respectively in 60 and 33% of spinal neuropathy and encephalopathy cases. Current strategies tailoring risk of neurological sequels has to be defined

Excellent prognosis of late relapses of ETV6/RUNX1-positive childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: lessons from the FRALLE 93 protocol.

We found an excellent outcome for patients with ETV6/RUNX1-positive leukemia relapses that occurred more than 36 months after diagnosis. The duration of first complete remission may, therefore, be a guide to define the treatment strategy for patients with relapsed ETV6/RUNX1- positive leukemia