Fluctuation Scaling, Taylor’s Law, and Crime

Fluctuation scaling relationships have been observed in a wide range of processes ranging from internet router traffic to measles cases. Taylor’s law is one such scaling relationship and has been widely applied in ecology to understand communities including trees, birds, human populations, and insects. We show that monthly crime reports in the UK show complex fluctuation scaling which can be approximated by Taylor’s law relationships corresponding to local policing neighborhoods and larger regional and countrywide scales. Regression models applied to local scale data from Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire found that different categories of crime exhibited different scaling exponents with no significant difference between the two regions. On this scale, violence reports were close to a Poisson distribution (α = 1.057±0.026) while burglary exhibited a greater exponent (α = 1.292±0.029) indicative of temporal clustering. These two regions exhibited significantly different pre-exponential factors for the categories of anti-social behavior and burglary indicating that local variations in crime reports can be assessed using fluctuation scaling methods. At regional and countrywide scales, all categories exhibited scaling behavior indicative of temporal clustering evidenced by Taylor’s law exponents from 1.43±0.12 (Drugs) to 2.094±0081 (Other Crimes). Investigating crime behavior via fluctuation scaling gives insight beyond that of raw numbers and is unique in reporting on all processes contributing to the observed variance and is either robust to or exhibits signs of many types of data manipulation

Foundations of multiple black hole evolutions

We present techniques for long-term, stable, and accurate evolutions of multiple-black-hole spacetimes using the `moving puncture' approach with fourth- and eighth-order finite difference stencils. We use these techniques to explore configurations of three black holes in a hierarchical system consisting of a third black hole approaching a quasi-circular black-hole binary, and find that, depending on the size of the binary, the resulting encounter may lead to a prompt merger of all three black holes, production of a highly elliptical binary (with the third black hole remaining unbound), or disruption of the binary (leading to three free black holes). We also analyze the classical Burrau three-body problem using full numerical evolutions. In both cases, we find behaviors distinctly different from Newtonian predictions, which has important implications for N-body black-hole simulations. For our simulations we use analytic approximate data. We find that the eighth-order stencils significantly reduce the numerical errors for our choice of grid sizes, and that the approximate initial data produces the expected waveforms (after a rescaling of the puncture masses) for black-hole binaries with modest initial separations.Comment: Revtex 4, 13 pages, 15 figure

Quasi-Local Linear Momentum in Black-Hole Binaries

We propose a quasi-local formula for the linear momentum of black-hole horizons inspired by the formalism of quasi-local horizons. We test this formula using two complementary configurations: (i) by calculating the large orbital linear momentum of the two black holes in an unequal-mass, zero-spin, quasi-circular binary and (ii) by calculating the very small recoil momentum imparted to the remnant of the head-on collision of an equal-mass, anti-aligned-spin binary. We obtain results consistent with the horizon trajectory in the orbiting case, and consistent with the net radiated linear momentum for the much smaller head-on recoil velocity.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, revtex

TERPAAN ARTIKEL DALAM PEMBERITAAN FASHION DAN BEAUTY DI BLOG (Analisis Deskriptif Kuantitatif Terpaan Pemberitaan Artikel Fashion dan Beauty dari Fashion Blogger www.luce-dale.com terhadap Remaja Putri)

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The Birth-Death-Mutation process: a new paradigm for fat tailed distributions

Fat tailed statistics and power-laws are ubiquitous in many complex systems. Usually the appearance of of a few anomalously successful individuals (bio-species, investors, websites) is interpreted as reflecting some inherent "quality" (fitness, talent, giftedness) as in Darwin's theory of natural selection. Here we adopt the opposite, "neutral", outlook, suggesting that the main factor explaining success is merely luck. The statistics emerging from the neutral birth-death-mutation (BDM) process is shown to fit marvelously many empirical distributions. While previous neutral theories have focused on the power-law tail, our theory economically and accurately explains the entire distribution. We thus suggest the BDM distribution as a standard neutral model: effects of fitness and selection are to be identified by substantial deviations from it

Nonlocal competition and logistic growth: patterns, defects and fronts

Logistic growth of diffusing reactants on spatial domains with long range competition is studied. The bifurcations cascade involved in the transition from the homogenous state to a spatially modulated stable solution is presented, and a distinction is made between a modulated phase, dominated by single or few wavenumbers, and the spiky phase, where localized colonies are separated by depleted region. The characteristic defects in the periodic structure are presented for each phase, together with the invasion dynamics in case of local initiation. It is shown that the basic length scale that controls the bifurcation is the width of the Fisher front, and that the total population grows as this width decreases. A mix of analytic results and extensive numerical simulations yields a comprehensive examination of the possible phases for logistic growth in the presence of nonlocal competition

Testing minimal lepton flavor violation with extra vector-like leptons at the LHC

Models of minimal lepton flavor violation where the seesaw scale is higher than the relevant flavor scale predict that all lepton flavor violation is proportional to the charged lepton Yukawa matrix. If extra vector-like leptons are within the reach of the LHC, it will be possible to test the resulting predictions in ATLAS/CMS.Comment: 19 pages, 8 figure

Large Merger Recoils and Spin Flips From Generic Black-Hole Binaries

We report the first results from evolutions of a generic black-hole binary, i.e. a binary containing unequal mass black holes with misaligned spins. Our configuration, which has a mass ratio of 2:1, consists of an initially non-spinning hole orbiting a larger, rapidly spinning hole (specific spin a/m = 0.885), with the spin direction oriented -45 degrees with respect to the orbital plane. We track the inspiral and merger for ~2 orbits and find that the remnant receives a substantial kick of 454 km/s, more than twice as large as the maximum kick from non-spinning binaries. The remnant spin direction is flipped by 103 degrees with respect to the initial spin direction of the larger hole. We performed a second run with anti-aligned spins, a/m = +-0.5 lying in the orbital plane that produces a kick of 1830 km/s off the orbital plane. This value scales to nearly 4000 km/s for maximally spinning holes. Such a large recoil velocity opens the possibility that a merged binary can be ejected even from the nucleus of a massive host galaxy.Comment: 4 pages. Accepted for publication in ApJ

The Legumes: The Earliest Domesticated Plants in the Near East?

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