Typological seismic losses assessment by damaged masonry buildings after L’Aquila 2009 and Emilia 2012 earthquakes

In this paper a seismic risk analysis of masonry buildings based on damage data from the 2009 L'Aquila and 2012 Emilia earthquakes. The seismic vulnerability is described by fragility curves from which economic loss curves are derived for each representative typological class of masonry buildings. The information on the buildings was collected by the Italian Civil Protection Department with the AeDES form and available in the Observed Damage Database (D.a.D.O.). The reliability of the database considered, however, was improved by carrying out a process of estimating undamaged buildings from data from the 15th ISTAT census. Finally, for each damage level, according to EMS-98 scale, a procedure to derive the Expected Annual Loss is presented, so as to express its percentage contribution in the seismic risk assessment

Seismic risk analysis on masonry buildings damaged by L’Aquila 2009 and Emilia 2012 earthquakes

Earthquakes in the recent past continue to provide more and more information on the seismic behavior of existing buildings and on the related economic losses. For the reason it is interesting to compare the damage of buildings stocks archived after earthquakes survey activities. In this paper a study of the damage occurred on masonry buildings after L’Aquila 2009 and Emilia 2012 earthquakes is carried out, by considering the data available in the web-gis Da.D.O platform. Firstly, fragility curves are illustrated and compared by considering the vulnerability classes of Da.D.O. (Class A, Class B and Class C1). Then, an approach is proposed in order to evaluate the total Expected Annual Loss (EALtot) and its contributions due to the several damage level (D1, …, D5). The preliminary obtained results show that, with reference to the two masonry buildings stocks considered, the higher contribution to the (EALtot) is given by the damage level D3, that may be considered as the life safety limit state. In the case analyzed, the corresponding EALD3 results almost equal to 1/3 of EALtot

A randomized phase 3 study on the optimization of the combination of bevacizumab with FOLFOX/OXXEL in the treatment of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer-OBELICS (Optimization of BEvacizumab scheduLIng within Chemotherapy Scheme).

BACKGROUND: Despite the improvements in diagnosis and treatment, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second cause of cancer deaths in both sexes. Therefore, research in this field remains of great interest. The approval of bevacizumab, a humanized anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) monoclonal antibody, in combination with a fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy in the treatment of metastatic CRC has changed the oncology practice in this disease. However, the efficacy of bevacizumab-based treatment, has thus far been rather modest. Efforts are ongoing to understand the better way to combine bevacizumab and chemotherapy, and to identify valid predictive biomarkers of benefit to avoid unnecessary and costly therapy to nonresponder patients. The BRANCH study in high-risk locally advanced rectal cancer patients showed that varying bevacizumab schedule may impact on the feasibility and efficacy of chemo-radiotherapy. METHODS/DESIGN: OBELICS is a multicentre, open-label, randomised phase 3 trial comparing in mCRC patients two treatment arms (1:1): standard concomitant administration of bevacizumab with chemotherapy (mFOLFOX/OXXEL regimen) vs experimental sequential bevacizumab given 4 days before chemotherapy, as first or second treatment line. Primary end point is the objective response rate (ORR) measured according to RECIST criteria. A sample size of 230 patients was calculated allowing reliable assessment in all plausible first-second line case-mix conditions, with a 80% statistical power and 2-sided alpha error of 0.05. Secondary endpoints are progression free-survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), toxicity and quality of life. The evaluation of the potential predictive role of several circulating biomarkers (circulating endothelial cells and progenitors, VEGF and VEGF-R SNPs, cytokines, microRNAs, free circulating DNA) as well as the value of the early [(18)F]-Fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) response, are the objectives of the traslational project. DISCUSSION: Overall this study could optimize bevacizumab scheduling in combination with chemotherapy in mCRC patients. Moreover, correlative studies could improve the knowledge of the mechanisms by which bevacizumab enhance chemotherapy effect and could identify early predictors of response. EudraCT Number: 2011-004997-27 TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gove number, NCT01718873

Parametric POMDPs for planning in continuous state spaces

This thesis is concerned with planning and acting under uncertainty in partially-observable continuous domains. In particular, it focusses on the problem of mobile robot navigation given a known map. The dominant paradigm for robot localisation is to use Bayesian estimation to maintain a probability distribution over possible robot poses. In contrast, control algorithms often base their decisions on the assumption that a single state, such as the mode of this distribution, is correct. In scenarios involving significant uncertainty, this can lead to serious control errors. It is generally agreed that the reliability of navigation in uncertain environments would be greatly improved by the ability to consider the entire distribution when acting, rather than the single most likely state. The framework adopted in this thesis for modelling navigation problems mathematically is the Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). An exact solution to a POMDP problem provides the optimal balance between reward-seeking behaviour and information-seeking behaviour, in the presence of sensor and actuation noise. Unfortunately, previous exact and approximate solution methods have had difficulty scaling to real applications. The contribution of this thesis is the formulation of an approach to planning in the space of continuous parameterised approximations to probability distributions. Theoretical and practical results are presented which show that, when compared with similar methods from the literature, this approach is capable of scaling to larger and more realistic problems. In order to apply the solution algorithm to real-world problems, a number of novel improvements are proposed. Specifically, Monte Carlo methods are employed to estimate distributions over future parameterised beliefs, improving planning accuracy without a loss of efficiency. Conditional independence assumptions are exploited to simplify the problem, reducing computational requirements. Scalability is further increased by focussing computation on likely beliefs, using metric indexing structures for efficient function approximation. Local online planning is incorporated to assist global offline planning, allowing the precision of the latter to be decreased without adversely affecting solution quality. Finally, the algorithm is implemented and demonstrated during real-time control of a mobile robot in a challenging navigation task. We argue that this task is substantially more challenging and realistic than previous problems to which POMDP solution methods have been applied. Results show that POMDP planning, which considers the evolution of the entire probability distribution over robot poses, produces significantly more robust behaviour when compared with a heuristic planner which considers only the most likely states and outcomes

Cetuximab continuation after first progression in metastatic colorectal cancer (CAPRI-GOIM): A randomized phase II trial of FOLFOX plus cetuximab versus FOLFOX

Background: Cetuximab plus chemotherapy is a first-line treatment option in metastatic KRAS and NRAS wild-type colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. No data are currently available on continuing anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) therapy beyond progression. Patients and methods: We did this open-label, 1:1 randomized phase II trial at 25 hospitals in Italy to evaluate the efficacy of cetuximab plus 5-fluorouracil, folinic acid and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) as second-line treatment of KRAS exon 2 wild-type metastatic CRC patients treated in first line with 5-fluorouracil, folinic acid and irinotecan (FOLFIRI) plus cetuximab. Patients received FOLFOX plus cetuximab (arm A) or FOLFOX (arm B). Primary end point was progressionfree survival (PFS). Tumour tissues were assessed by next-generation sequencing (NGS). This report is the final analysis. Results: Between 1 February 2010 and 28 September 2014, 153 patients were randomized (74 in arm A and 79 in arm B). Median PFS was 6.4 [95% confidence interval (CI) 4.7-8.0] versus 4.5 months (95% CI 3.3-5.7); [hazard ratio (HR), 0.81; 95% CI 0.58-1.12; P = 0.19], respectively. NGS was performed in 117/153 (76.5%) cases; 66/117 patients (34 in arm A and 32 in arm B) had KRAS, NRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA wild-type tumours. For these patients, PFS was longer in the FOLFOX plus cetuximab arm [median 6.9 (95% CI 5.5-8.2) versus 5.3 months (95% CI 3.7-6.9); HR, 0.56 (95% CI 0.33-0.94); P = 0.025]. There was a trend in better overall survival: median 23.7 [(95% CI 19.4-28.0) versus 19.8 months (95% CI 14.9-24.7); HR, 0.57 (95% CI 0.32-1.02); P = 0.056]. Conclusions: Continuing cetuximab treatment in combination with chemotherapy is of potential therapeutic efficacy in molecularly selected patients and should be validated in randomized phase III trials

Towards the introduction of the ‘Immunoscore’ in the classification of malignant tumours

The American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union Internationale Contre le Cancer (AJCC/UICC) TNM staging system provides the most reliable guidelines for the routine prognostication and treatment of colorectal carcinoma. This traditional tumour staging summarizes data on tumour burden (T), the presence of cancer cells in draining and regional lymph nodes (N) and evidence for distant metastases (M). However, it is now recognized that the clinical outcome can vary significantly among patients within the same stage. The current classification provides limited prognostic information and does not predict response to therapy. Multiple ways to classify cancer and to distinguish different subtypes of colorectal cancer have been proposed, including morphology, cell origin, molecular pathways, mutation status and gene expression-based stratification. These parameters rely on tumour-cell characteristics. Extensive literature has investigated the host immune response against cancer and demonstrated the prognostic impact of the in situ immune cell infiltrate in tumours. A methodology named ‘Immunoscore’ has been defined to quantify the in situ immune infiltrate. In colorectal cancer, the Immunoscore may add to the significance of the current AJCC/UICC TNM classification, since it has been demonstrated to be a prognostic factor superior to the AJCC/UICC TNM classification. An international consortium has been initiated to validate and promote the Immunoscore in routine clinical settings. The results of this international consortium may result in the implementation of the Immunoscore as a new component for the classification of cancer, designated TNM-I (TNM-Immune). © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland

Level of agreement between objectively determined body composition and perceived body image in 6- To 8-year-old South African children- To Body Composition-Isotope Technique study

To assess the level of agreement between body size self-perception and actual body size determined by body mass index (BMI) z-score and body fatness measured by the deuterium dilution method (DDM) in South African children aged 6-8 years. A cross-sectional sample of 202 children (83 boys and 119 girls) aged 6-8 years from the Body Composition-Isotope Technique study (BC-IT) was taken. Subjective measures of body image (silhouettes) were compared with the objective measures of BMI z-score and body fatness measured by the DDM. The World Health Organization BMI z-scores were used to classify the children as underweight, normal, overweight, or obese. DDM-measured fatness was classified based on the McCarthy centile curves set at 2nd, 85th and 95th in conjunction with fatness cut-off points of 25% in boys and 30% in girls. Data were analyzed using SPSS v26. Of 202 children, 32.2%, 55.1%, 8.8%, and 2.4% perceived their body size as underweight, normal, overweight, and obese, respectively. Based on BMI z-score, 18.8%, 72.8%, 6.9%, and 1.5% were classified as underweight, normal, overweight, and obese, respectively. Body fatness measurement showed that 2.5%, 48.0%, 21.8%, and 29.7% were underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese, respectively