Explaining inconsistencies between data on condom use and condom sales

BACKGROUND: Several HIV prevention programs use data on condom sales and survey-based data on condom prevalence to monitor progress. However, such indicators are not always consistent. This paper aims to explain these inconsistencies and to assess whether the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used can be estimated from survey data. This would be useful for program managers, as it would enable estimation of the number of condoms needed for different target groups. METHODS: We use data from six Demographic and Health Surveys to estimate the total annual number of sex acts and number of condoms used. Estimates of the number of sex acts are based on self-reported coital frequency, the proportion reporting intercourse the previous day, and survival methods. Estimates of the number of condoms used are based on self-reported frequency of use, the proportion reporting condom use the previous day and in last intercourse. The estimated number of condoms used is then compared with reported data on condom sales and distribution. RESULTS: Analysis of data on the annual number of condoms sold and distributed to the trade reveals very erratic patterns, which reflect stock-ups at various levels in the distribution chain. Consequently, condom sales data are a very poor indicator of the level of condom use. Estimates of both the number of sexual acts and the number of condoms used vary enormously based on the estimation method used. For several surveys, the highest estimate of the annual number of condoms used is tenfold that of the lowest estimate. CONCLUSIONS: Condom sales to the trade are a poor indicator of levels of condom use, and are therefore insufficient to monitor HIV prevention programs. While survey data on condom prevalence allow more detailed monitoring, converting such data to an estimated number of sex acts and condoms used is not straightforward. The estimation methods yield widely different results, and it is impossible to determine which method is most accurate. Until the reliability of these various estimation methods can be established, estimating the annual number of condoms used from survey data will not be feasible. Collecting survey data on the number of sex acts and the number of condoms used in a fixed time period may enable the calculation of more reliable estimates of the number of sex acts and condoms used

Factors influencing place of delivery for women in Kenya: an analysis of the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, 2008/2009

Background Maternal mortality in Kenya increased from 380/100000 live births to 530/100000 live births between 1990 and 2008. Skilled assistance during childbirth is central to reducing maternal mortality yet the proportion of deliveries taking place in health facilities where such assistance can reliably be provided has remained below 50% since the early 1990s. We use the 2008/2009 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey data to describe the factors that determine where women deliver in Kenya and to explore reasons given for home delivery. Methods Data on place of delivery, reasons for home delivery, and a range of potential explanatory factors were collected by interviewer-led questionnaire on 3977 women and augmented with distance from the nearest health facility estimated using health facility Global Positioning System (GPS) co-ordinates. Predictors of whether the woman’s most recent delivery was in a health facility were explored in an exploratory risk factor analysis using multiple logistic regression. The main reasons given by the woman for home delivery were also examined. Results Living in urban areas, being wealthy, more educated, using antenatal care services optimally and lower parity strongly predicted where women delivered, and so did region, ethnicity, and type of facilities used. Wealth and rural/urban residence were independently related. The effect of distance from a health facility was not significant after controlling for other variables. Women most commonly cited distance and/or lack of transport as reasons for not delivering in a health facility but over 60% gave other reasons including 20.5% who considered health facility delivery unnecessary, 18% who cited abrupt delivery as the main reason and 11% who cited high cost. Conclusion Physical access to health facilities through distance and/or lack of transport, and economic considerations are important barriers for women to delivering in a health facility in Kenya. Some women do not perceive a need to deliver in a health facility and may value health facility delivery less with subsequent deliveries. Access to appropriate transport for mothers in labour and improving the experiences and outcomes for mothers using health facilities at childbirth augmented by health education may increase uptake of health facility delivery in Kenya

Design, implementation and evaluation of a national campaign to distribute nine million free LLINs to children under five years of age in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud After a national voucher scheme in 2004 provided pregnant women and infants with highly subsidized insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), use among children under five years (U5s) in mainland Tanzania increased from 16% in 2004 to 26.2% in 2007. In 2008, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare planned a catch-up campaign to rapidly and equitably deliver a free long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) to every child under five years in Tanzania.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud The ITN Cell, a unit within the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP), coordinated the campaign on behalf of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Government contractors trained and facilitated local government officials to supervise village-level volunteers on a registration of all U5s and the distribution and issuing of LLINs. The registration results formed the basis for the LLIN order and delivery to village level. Caregivers brought their registration coupons to village issuing posts during a three-day period where they received LLINs for their U5s. Household surveys in five districts assessed ITN ownership and use immediately after the campaign.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud Nine donors contributed to the national campaign that purchased and distributed 9.0 million LLINs at an average cost of $7.07 per LLIN, including all campaign-associated activities. The campaign covered all eight zones of mainland Tanzania, the first region being covered separately during an integrated measles immunization/malaria LLIN distribution in August 2008, and was implemented one zone at a time from March 2009 until May 2010. ITN ownership at household level increased from Tanzania's 2008 national average of 45.7% to 63.4%, with significant regional variations. ITN use among U5s increased from 28.8% to 64.1%, a 2.2-fold increase, with increases ranging from 22.1-38.3% percentage points in different regions.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud A national-level LLIN distribution strategy that fully engaged local government authorities helped avoid additional burden on the healthcare system. Distribution costs per net were comparable to other public health interventions. Particularly among rural residents, ITN ownership and use increased significantly for the intended beneficiaries. The upcoming universal LLIN distribution and further behaviour change communication will further improve ITN ownership and use in 2010-2011

The Problem of Large Leptonic Mixing

Unlike in the quark sector where simple $S_3$ permutation symmetries can generate the general features of quark masses and mixings, we find it impossible (under conditions of hierarchy for the charged leptons and without considering the see-saw mechanism or a more elaborate extension of the SM) to guarantee large leptonic mixing angles with any general symmetry or transformation of only known particles. If such symmetries exist, they must be realized in more extended scenarios.Comment: RevTeX, 4 pages, no figure

Clinical Determinants and Prognostic Implications of Renin and Aldosterone in Patients with Symptomatic Heart Failure

Aims Activation of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system plays an important role in the pathophysiology of heart failure (HF) and has been associated with poor prognosis. There are limited data on the associations of renin and aldosterone levels with clinical profiles, treatment response, and study outcomes in patients with HF. Methods and results We analysed 2,039 patients with available baseline renin and aldosterone levels in BIOSTAT-CHF (a systems BIOlogy study to Tailored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure). The primary outcome was the composite of all-cause mortality or HF hospitalization. We also investigated changes in renin and aldosterone levels after administration of mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRAs) in a subset of the EPHESUS trial and in an acute HF cohort (PORTO). In BIOSTAT-CHF study, median renin and aldosterone levels were 85.3 (percentile(25-75) = 28-247) mu IU/mL and 9.4 (percentile(25-75) = 4.4-19.8) ng/dL, respectively. Prior HF admission, lower blood pressure, sodium, poorer renal function, and MRA treatment were associated with higher renin and aldosterone. Higher renin was associated with an increased rate of the primary outcome [highest vs. lowest renin tertile: adjusted-HR (95% CI) = 1.47 (1.16-1.86), P = 0.002], whereas higher aldosterone was not [highest vs. lowest aldosterone tertile: adjusted-HR (95% CI) = 1.16 (0.93-1.44), P = 0.19]. Renin and/or aldosterone did not improve the BIOSTAT-CHF prognostic models. The rise in aldosterone with the use of MRAs was observed in EPHESUS and PORTO studies. Conclusions Circulating levels of renin and aldosterone were associated with both the disease severity and use of MRAs. By reflecting both the disease and its treatments, the prognostic discrimination of these biomarkers was poor. Our data suggest that the "point" measurement of renin and aldosterone in HF is of limited clinical utility