Anthropic reasoning in multiverse cosmology and string theory

Anthropic arguments in multiverse cosmology and string theory rely on the weak anthropic principle (WAP). We show that the principle, though ultimately a tautology, is nevertheless ambiguous. It can be reformulated in one of two unambiguous ways, which we refer to as WAP_1 and WAP_2. We show that WAP_2, the version most commonly used in anthropic reasoning, makes no physical predictions unless supplemented by a further assumption of "typicality", and we argue that this assumption is both misguided and unjustified. WAP_1, however, requires no such supplementation; it directly implies that any theory that assigns a non-zero probability to our universe predicts that we will observe our universe with probability one. We argue, therefore, that WAP_1 is preferable, and note that it has the benefit of avoiding the inductive overreach characteristic of much anthropic reasoning.Comment: 7 pages. Expanded discussion of selection effects and some minor clarifications, as publishe

Self-Modification of Policy and Utility Function in Rational Agents

Any agent that is part of the environment it interacts with and has versatile actuators (such as arms and fingers), will in principle have the ability to self-modify -- for example by changing its own source code. As we continue to create more and more intelligent agents, chances increase that they will learn about this ability. The question is: will they want to use it? For example, highly intelligent systems may find ways to change their goals to something more easily achievable, thereby `escaping' the control of their designers. In an important paper, Omohundro (2008) argued that goal preservation is a fundamental drive of any intelligent system, since a goal is more likely to be achieved if future versions of the agent strive towards the same goal. In this paper, we formalise this argument in general reinforcement learning, and explore situations where it fails. Our conclusion is that the self-modification possibility is harmless if and only if the value function of the agent anticipates the consequences of self-modifications and use the current utility function when evaluating the future.Comment: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) 201

Prediction and explanation in the multiverse

Probabilities in the multiverse can be calculated by assuming that we are typical representatives in a given reference class. But is this class well defined? What should be included in the ensemble in which we are supposed to be typical? There is a widespread belief that this question is inherently vague, and that there are various possible choices for the types of reference objects which should be counted in. Here we argue that the ``ideal'' reference class (for the purpose of making predictions) can be defined unambiguously in a rather precise way, as the set of all observers with identical information content. When the observers in a given class perform an experiment, the class branches into subclasses who learn different information from the outcome of that experiment. The probabilities for the different outcomes are defined as the relative numbers of observers in each subclass. For practical purposes, wider reference classes can be used, where we trace over all information which is uncorrelated to the outcome of the experiment, or whose correlation with it is beyond our current understanding. We argue that, once we have gathered all practically available evidence, the optimal strategy for making predictions is to consider ourselves typical in any reference class we belong to, unless we have evidence to the contrary. In the latter case, the class must be correspondingly narrowed.Comment: Minor clarifications adde

Parathyroid hormone 1-34 and skeletal anabolic action: The use of parathyroid hormone in bone formation

Intermittently administered parathyroid hormone (PTH 1-34) has been shown to promote bone formation in both human and animal studies. The hormone and its analogues stimulate both bone formation and resorption, and as such at low doses are now in clinical use for the treatment of severe osteoporosis. By varying the duration of exposure, parathyroid hormone can modulate genes leading to increased bone formation within a so-called ‘anabolic window’. The osteogenic mechanisms involved are multiple, affecting the stimulation of osteoprogenitor cells, osteoblasts, osteocytes and the stem cell niche, and ultimately leading to increased osteoblast activation, reduced osteoblast apoptosis, upregulation of Wnt/β-catenin signalling, increased stem cell mobilisation, and mediation of the RANKL/OPG pathway. Ongoing investigation into their effect on bone formation through ‘coupled’ and ‘uncoupled’ mechanisms further underlines the impact of intermittent PTH on both cortical and cancellous bone. Given the principally catabolic actions of continuous PTH, this article reviews the skeletal actions of intermittent PTH 1-34 and the mechanisms underlying its effect

The spherical probe electric field and wave experiment

The experiment is designed to measure the electric field and density fluctuations with sampling rates up to 40,000 samples/sec. The description includes Langmuir sweeps that can be made to determine the electron density and temperature, the study of nonlinear processes that result in acceleration of plasma, and the analysis of large scale phenomena where all four spacecraft are needed

A methylome-wide mQTL analysis reveals associations of methylation sites with GAD1 and HDAC3 SNPs and a general psychiatric risk score

Genome-wide association studies have identified a number of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with psychiatric diseases. Increasing body of evidence suggests a complex connection of SNPs and the transcriptional and epigenetic regulation of gene expression, which is poorly understood. In the current study, we investigated the interplay between genetic risk variants, shifts in methylation and mRNA levels in whole blood from 223 adolescents distinguished by a risk for developing psychiatric disorders. We analyzed 37 SNPs previously associated with psychiatric diseases in relation to genome-wide DNA methylation levels using linear models, with Bonferroni correction and adjusting for cell-type composition. Associations between DNA methylation, mRNA levels and psychiatric disease risk evaluated by the Development and Well-Being Assessment (DAWBA) score were identified by robust linear models, Pearson's correlations and binary regression models. We detected five SNPs (in HCRTR1, GAD1, HADC3 and FKBP5) that were associated with eight CpG sites, validating five of these SNP-CpG pairs. Three of these CpG sites, that is, cg01089319 (GAD1), cg01089249 (GAD1) and cg24137543 (DIAPH1), manifest in significant gene expression changes and overlap with active regulatory regions in chromatin states of brain tissues. Importantly, methylation levels at cg01089319 were associated with the DAWBA score in the discovery group. These results show how distinct SNPs linked with psychiatric diseases are associated with epigenetic shifts with relevance for gene expression. Our findings give a novel insight on how genetic variants may modulate risks for the development of psychiatric diseases

The quantum cryptographic switch

We illustrate using a quantum system the principle of a cryptographic switch, in which a third party (Charlie) can control to a continuously varying degree the amount of information the receiver (Bob) receives, after the sender (Alice) has sent her information. Suppose Charlie transmits a Bell state to Alice and Bob. Alice uses dense coding to transmit two bits to Bob. Only if the 2-bit information corresponding to choice of Bell state is made available by Charlie to Bob can the latter recover Alice's information. By varying the information he gives, Charlie can continuously vary the information recovered by Bob. The performance of the protocol subjected to the squeezed generalized amplitude damping channel is considered. We also present a number of practical situations where a cryptographic switch would be of use.Comment: 7 pages, 4 Figure

The meaning of life in a developing universe

The evolution of life on Earth has produced an organism that is beginning to model and understand its own evolution and the possible future evolution of life in the universe. These models and associated evidence show that evolution on Earth has a trajectory. The scale over which living processes are organized cooperatively has increased progressively, as has its evolvability. Recent theoretical advances raise the possibility that this trajectory is itself part of a wider developmental process. According to these theories, the developmental process has been shaped by a larger evolutionary process that involves the reproduction of universes. This evolutionary process has tuned the key parameters of the universe to increase the likelihood that life will emerge and develop to produce outcomes that are successful in the larger process (e.g. a key outcome may be to produce life and intelligence that intentionally reproduces the universe and tunes the parameters of ‘offspring’ universes). Theory suggests that when life emerges on a planet, it moves along this trajectory of its own accord. However, at a particular point evolution will continue to advance only if organisms emerge that decide to advance the evolutionary process intentionally. The organisms must be prepared to make this commitment even though the ultimate nature and destination of the process is uncertain, and may forever remain unknown. Organisms that complete this transition to intentional evolution will drive the further development of life and intelligence in the universe. Humanity’s increasing understanding of the evolution of life in the universe is rapidly bringing it to the threshold of this major evolutionary transition