The behavior of the electron density and temperatue at Millstone Hill during the equinox transition study September 1984

The ionospheric electron density and temperature variations is simulated during the equinox transition study in September 1984 and the results are compared with measurements made at Millstone Hill. The agreement between the modeled and measured electron density and temperature for the quiet day (18 September) is very good but there are large differences on the day of the storm (19 September). On the storm day, the measured electron density decreases by a factor of 1.7 over the previous day, while the model density actually increases slightly. The model failure is attributed to an inadequate increase in the ratio of atomic oxygen to molecular neutral densities in the MSIS neutral atmosphere model, for this particular storm. A factor of 3 to 5 increase in the molecular to atomic oxygen density ratio at 300 km is needed to explain the observed decrease in electron density. The effect of vibrationally excited N sub 2 on the electron density were studied and found to be small

Observations of neutral circulation at mid-latitudes during the Equinox Transition Study

Measurements of ion drift velocity made by the Millstone Hill incoherent scatter radar have been used to calculate the meridional neutral wind velocity during the Sept. 17 to 24, 1984 period. Strong daytime southward neutral surges were observed during the magnetically disturbed days of September 19 and 23, in contrast to the small daytime winds obtained as expected during the magnetically quiet days. The surge on September 19 was also seen at Arecibo. In addition, two approaches have been used to calculate the meridional wind component from the radar-derived height of the F-layer electron density peak. Results confirm the wind surge, particularly when the strong electric fields measured during the disturbed days are included in the calculations. The two approaches for the F-layer peak wind calculations are applied to the radar-derived electron density peak height as a function of latitude to study the variation of the southward daytime surges with latitude

DWM07 global empirical model of upper thermospheric storm-induced disturbance winds

We present a global empirical disturbance wind model (DWM07) that represents average geospace-storm-induced perturbations of upper thermospheric (200-600 km altitude) neutral winds. DWM07 depends on the following three parameters: magnetic latitude, magnetic local time, and the 3-h Kp geomagnetic activity index. The latitude and local time dependences are represented by vector spherical harmonic functions ( up to degree 10 in latitude and order 3 in local time), and the Kp dependence is represented by quadratic B-splines. DWM07 is the storm time thermospheric component of the new Horizontal Wind Model (HWM07), which is described in a companion paper. DWM07 is based on data from the Wind Imaging Interferometer on board the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, the Wind and Temperature Spectrometer on board Dynamics Explorer 2, and seven ground-based Fabry-Perot interferometers. The perturbation winds derived from the three data sets are in good mutual agreement under most conditions, and the model captures most of the climatological variations evident in the data

A combined estimator using TEC and b-value for large earthquake prediction

[EN] Ionospheric anomalies have been shown to occur a few days before several large earthquakes. The published works normally address examples limited in time (a single event or few of them) or space (a particular geographic area), so that a clear method based on these anomalies which consistently yields the place and magnitude of the forthcoming earthquake, anytime and anywhere on earth, has not been presented so far. The current research is aimed at prediction of large earthquakes, that is with magnitude M-w 7 or higher. It uses as data bank all significant earthquakes occurred worldwide in the period from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2018. The first purpose of the research is to improve the use of ionospheric anomalies in the form of TEC grids for earthquake prediction. A space-time TEC variation estimator especially designed for earthquake prediction will show the advantages with respect to the use of simple TEC values. 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