How can ocean warming at the NW Iberian Peninsula affect mussel aquaculture?

Understanding and forecasting future consequences of climate change in mussel aquaculture industry require the assessment of changes in physical parameters which may affect mussel growth. The FLOW module of Delft3D model forced with climatic data was validated and calibrated for the Rías Baixas (NW Iberian Peninsula), one of the areas with the highest mussel production in the world. This model was used to perform historical (1999-2018) and future (2080-2099) projections. Temperature and stratification water conditions were compared in order to determine at what extent climate change can affect mussel production. Thermal stress will increase in a non-homogeneous throughout the water column and the comfort level of mussels will be reduced by more than 60% in the upper layers and more than 30% in deep layers in most of the mussel raft polygons. Water column stratification will increase ~ 5-10 cycles h-1 in most of the polygons reducing the vertical exchange of nutrients and oxygen. Hereby changes in water temperature and stratification at the end of the century will not be favorable for mussel growth.publishe

Combined Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation on Sea Surface Temperature in the Alborán Sea

We explored the possible effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Albora´n Sea, both separately and combined. The probability of observing mean annual SST values higher than average was related to NAO and AO values of the previous year. The effect of NAO on SST was negative, while that of AO was positive. The pure effects of NAO and AO on SST are obscuring each other, due to the positive correlation between them. When decomposing SST, NAO and AO in seasonal values, we found that variation in mean annual SST and mean winter SST was significantly related to the mean autumn NAO of the previous year, while mean summer SST was related to mean autumn AO of the previous year. The one year delay in the effect of the NAO and AO on the SST could be partially related to the amount of accumulated snow, as we found a significant correlation between the total snow in the North Albora´n watershed for a year with the annual average SST of the subsequent year. A positive AO implies a colder atmosphere in the Polar Regions, which could favour occasional cold waves over the Iberian Peninsula which, when coupled with precipitations favoured by a negative NAO, may result in snow precipitation. This snow may be accumulated in the high peaks and melt down in spring-summer of the following year, which consequently increases the runoff of freshwater to the sea, which in turn causes a diminution of sea surface salinity and density, and blocks the local upwelling of colder water, resulting in a higher SST.CGL2009-11316 (Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Spain, and FEDER

Coastal warming under climate change: global, faster and heterogeneous

The assessment of expected changes in coastal sea surface temperature (SST) on a global scale is becoming increasingly important due to the growing pressure on coastal ecosystems caused by climate change. To achieve this objective, 17 Global Climate Models from CMIP6 were used, with data from historical and hist-1950 experiments spanning 1982-2050. This analysis highlights significant warming of coastal areas worldwide, with higher and more variable rates of warming than observed in previous decades. All basins are projected to experience an increase in coastal SST near 1 °C by mid-century, with some regions exhibiting nearshore SST anomalies exceeding 2 °C for the period 2031-2050 relative to 1995-2014. Regarding the Eastern Upwelling Boundary Systems, only the Canary upwelling system and the southern part of the Humboldt upwelling system manage to show lower-than-average SST warming rates, maintaining, to a certain extent, their ability to buffer global warming.publishe

Projections of wind energy resources in the Caribbean for the 21st century

The Caribbean has suitable conditions for a significant wind energy development, which makes a good planning for the future renewable energy mix essential. The impact of climate change on Caribbean wind power has been analyzed by means of an ensemble of CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) under the RCP8.5 warming scenario. The offshore wind energy resource was classified for the historical period and for the future considering wind energy factors, environmental risk factors and cost factors whose weights were estimated by a Delphi method. Future projections show a maximum annual wind increase, ∼0.4 ms−1 (8%), in most of the Caribbean, except in the Yucatán Basin. This increment occurs mainly during the wet season, ∼0.5 ms−1 (∼10%), associated with changes in the extension of the North Atlantic Subtropical High, which will strengthen the Caribbean low-level jet. Additionally, the moderate wind increase, ∼0.2 ms−1 (∼4%), projected during the dry season is restricted to the southeastern coast and it is associated with an increment in the land-ocean temperature difference (∼1 °C), which will intensify local easterly winds. The low-level jet region was classified as the richest wind energy resource in the Caribbean for the future with a larger extension compared to the historical period.publishe

Differences in coastal and oceanic SST trends north of Yucatan Peninsula

The coastal area north of Yucatan has experienced a cooling SST trend from 1982 to 2015 during the upwelling season (May–September) that contrasts with the warming observed at the adjacent ocean area. Different drivers were analyzed to identify the possible causes of that unusual coastal cooling. Changes in coastal upwelling and in sea-atmosphere heat fluxes are not consistent with the observed coastal cooling. The eastward shift of the Yucatan Current observed over the last decades is hypothesized as the most probable cause of coastal cooling. This shift enhances the vertical transport of cold deeper water to the continental shelf from where it is pumped to the surface by upwelling favorable westerly winds.publishe

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of habitat-forming macroalgae in the Rías Baixas

In the current scenario of climate change characterized by a generalized warming, many species are facing local extinctions in areas with conditions near their thermal tolerance threshold. At present, the southern limit of the geographical distribution of several habitat-forming algae of cold-temperate affinities is located in the Northwest Iberian Peninsula, and the Rías Baixas may be acting as contemporary refugia at the range edge. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future changes induced by ocean warming in this area that may induce changes in macroalgae populations. The Delft3D-Flow model forced with climatic data was used to calculate July-August sea surface temperature (SST) for the present (1999-2018) and for the far future (2080-2099). Mean daily SST was used to develop and calibrate a mechanistic geographical distribution model based on the thermal survival threshold of two intertidal habitat-forming macroalgae, namely Himanthalia elongata (L.) S.F.Gray and Bifurcaria bifurcata R. Ross. Results show that H. elongata will become extinct in the Rías Baixas by the end of the century, while B. bifurcata will persist and may occupy potential free space left by the decline in H. elongata.publishe

Smoothed particle hydrodynamics on GPU computing

Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) is a powerful technique used to simulate complex free-surface flows. However one of the main drawbacks of this method is the expensive computational runtime and the large number of particles needed when 3D simulations are performed. High Performance Computing (HPC) therefore becomes essential to accelerate these codes and perform simulations. In this study, parallelization using Graphics Processing Units (GPU) is applied to the SPHysics code (www.sphysics.org) dedicated to free-surface flows with SPH. Simulations involving several million particles on a single GPU exhibit speedups of up to two orders of magnitude over the same calculations using CPU codes, while parallelization using MPI for multi-GPU leads to further acceleration. This cheap technology allows studying real-life engineering problems at reasonable computational runtimes

Analysis of the effect of atmospheric oscillations on physical condition of pre–reproductive bluefin tuna from the Strait of Gibraltar

Análisis del efecto de las oscilaciones atmosféricas en la condición física del atún rojo del estrecho de Gibraltar antes de su reproducción El objetivo de este estudio fue explorar los posibles efectos de las oscilaciones atmosféricas, la oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO) y la oscilación del Ártico (AO), en la condición física del atún rojo (Thunnus thynnus). Para ello, estimamos un índice de condición física para cada clase de talla y año a partir de 3.501 pares de datos de talla–peso de atunes capturados en la pesca de cebo vivo antes de la temporada de desove (enero, febrero y marzo). Con el fin de obtener un valor único del índice de condición física (K–mean) por año calculamos el promedio de todas las clases de talla. Además, calculamos el índice de condición física de Le Cren (KLC). Observamos correlaciones positivas significativas entre las oscilaciones atmosféricas y los dos índices decondición física. En el caso del K–mean, la AO explicó un 75% de la variabilidad observada. En relación con el KLC, la NAO explicó aproximadamente un 73% de la variabilidad observada, mientras que la AO explicó un 70% de la variabilidad observada. El aumento de la prevalencia de fuertes vientos de componente oeste podría intervenir en la mejora de la condición física del atún rojo asociada con una fase positiva de las oscilaciones atmosféricas. Llegamos a la conclusión de que el aumento de la prevalencia de fuertes vientos de componente oeste, ya sea por una AO o una NAO positiva, favorece el viaje de los atunes que llegan desde el Atlántico hasta el Mediterráneo porque, por un lado, reduce los costes energéticos de la migración y, por otro, aumenta la cantidad de nutrientes en superficie al mezclar las capas de agua profundas y superficiales en zonas locales como el estrecho de Gibraltar.The aim of this study was to explore the possible effects of atmospheric oscillations: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO), on the physical condition of bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus). We estimated a fitness ratio from 3,501 pairs of length–weight data based on bluefin tuna caught in bait–boat fisheries before the spawning season (January, February and March), for each length class and year. In order to obtain a single fitness ratio (K–mean) per year we determined the average for all length classes. We also evaluated Le Cren’s condition index (KLC). We observed significant positive correlations between the atmospheric oscillations and both physical condition indexes. In the case of K–mean, the AO explained 75% of the observed variability. Regarding KLC, the NAO explained approximately 73% of the observed variability, while the AO explained 70% of the observed variability. The increase in physical conditions of bluefin tuna in association with positive atmospheric oscillations could be mediated by the increase in the prevalence of strong trade winds. We concluded that the increase in the prevalence of strong westerly winds, mediated by a positive AO or NAO, favours the trip from the Atlantic to the Mediterranean by reducing energy costs due to migration and by increasing the supply of nutrients at the surface by the mixing of deep water and surface water in local areas such as the Strait of Gibraltar.Análisis del efecto de las oscilaciones atmosféricas en la condición física del atún rojo del estrecho de Gibraltar antes de su reproducción El objetivo de este estudio fue explorar los posibles efectos de las oscilaciones atmosféricas, la oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO) y la oscilación del Ártico (AO), en la condición física del atún rojo (Thunnus thynnus). Para ello, estimamos un índice de condición física para cada clase de talla y año a partir de 3.501 pares de datos de talla–peso de atunes capturados en la pesca de cebo vivo antes de la temporada de desove (enero, febrero y marzo). Con el fin de obtener un valor único del índice de condición física (K–mean) por año calculamos el promedio de todas las clases de talla. Además, calculamos el índice de condición física de Le Cren (KLC). Observamos correlaciones positivas significativas entre las oscilaciones atmosféricas y los dos índices decondición física. En el caso del K–mean, la AO explicó un 75% de la variabilidad observada. En relación con el KLC, la NAO explicó aproximadamente un 73% de la variabilidad observada, mientras que la AO explicó un 70% de la variabilidad observada. El aumento de la prevalencia de fuertes vientos de componente oeste podría intervenir en la mejora de la condición física del atún rojo asociada con una fase positiva de las oscilaciones atmosféricas. Llegamos a la conclusión de que el aumento de la prevalencia de fuertes vientos de componente oeste, ya sea por una AO o una NAO positiva, favorece el viaje de los atunes que llegan desde el Atlántico hasta el Mediterráneo porque, por un lado, reduce los costes energéticos de la migración y, por otro, aumenta la cantidad de nutrientes en superficie al mezclar las capas de agua profundas y superficiales en zonas locales como el estrecho de Gibraltar

IberWQ: A GPU Accelerated Tool for 2D Water Quality Modeling in Rivers and Estuaries

Este artigo inclúese no número especial "Modelling Flow, Water Quality, and Sediment Transport Processes in Coastal, Estuarine, and Inland Waters"[Abstract] Numerical models are useful tools to analyze water quality by computing the concentration of physical, chemical and biological parameters. The present work introduces a two-dimensional depth-averaged model that computes the most relevant and frequent parameters used to evaluate water quality. High performance computing (HPC) techniques based on graphic processing unit (GPU) parallelization have been applied to improve the efficiency of the package, providing speed-ups of two orders of magnitude in a standard PC. Several test cases were analyzed to show the capabilities and efficiency of the model to evaluate the environmental status of rivers and non-stratified estuaries. IberWQ will be freely available through the package Iber.European Commission; INTERREG-POCTEP; 0034_RISC_ML_6_EXunta de Galicia; ED431C 2017/64-GRCXunta de Galicia; ED481A-2017/31