Gulf Coast assessment overview/charge to the workshop

There are several reasons that the U. S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) has initiated the U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. The reasons all revolve around answering questions posed in Washington by members of Congress on behalf of their constituents as to why climate change concerns them. This workshop is part of the process for getting better answers to these questions. This paper briefly reviews the science of climate change and the human influence on climate change, discusses future climate change, and considers national and international perspectives on global change. It discusses the potential for mitigation of climate change and the need to cope with climate change. The author explains the U.S. National Assessment

National assessment of the consequences of climate change for the United States

The US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is initiating a national assessment of the consequences of climate change and climate variability for the United States and the significance of these consequences for its people

IAMAS: a century of international cooperation in atmospheric sciences

The International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (IAMAS) was founded in 1919 as the Section of Meteorology of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG). Significant advances over human history, particularly during the 19th century, in the gathering, communication, assembly and analysis of observations of the changing weather and in theoretical understanding of the fundamental physical relationships and processes governing atmospheric circulation had been driven by the need for improved weather and climate forecasts to support the expansion of global trade, better public warnings of extreme weather, and safer and more effective military operations. Since its foundation, in parallel and cooperation with intergovernmental development under the auspices of what is now the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), IAMAS and its 10 international commissions have provided the international organizational framework for the convening of the general and scientific assemblies and other meetings that bring together expert scientists from around the world to further advance scientific understanding and prediction of the behaviour of the atmosphere and its connections to and effects on other components of the Earth's intercoupled geophysical system.</p

National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States

The first U.S. National Assessment of the PotentialConsequences of Climate Variability and Change for theUnited States is being conducted under the auspices of theU.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). TheUSGCRP was established through the Global ChangeResearch Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606) and mandatedthrough the statute with the responsibility to undertakeperiodic scientific assessments of the potentialconsequences of global change for the United States. Thegoal of the National Assessment is to analyze andevaluate what is known about the potential consequencesof climate variability and change for the nation in thecontext of other pressures on the public, the environment,and the nation\u27s resources. The conduct of the nationalassessment process will involve a broad spectrum ofstakeholders from state, local, tribal, and Federalgovernments; business; labor; academia; non-profitorganizations; and the general public. The assessmentwill link research by scientists to specific needs of thestakeholders, and will provide planners, managers,organizations, and the public with the information neededto increase resilience to climate variability and cope withclimate change. The national assessment will becomprised of three components: (1) National synthesis,(2) Sectoral analyses (agriculture, forestry, waterresources, human health, and the coastal zone), and(3) Regional analyses. To facilitate comparison,integration, and synthesis of each of the assessmentcomponents, all regional, sectoral, and synthesis analyseswill use a common set of scenarios for climate change and changes in socio-economic conditions. Specific responsibilities have been defined for oversight of the components of the national assessment and forcoordination activities. A National Assessment SynthesisTeam (NAST) will provide overall intellectual oversightof the national assessment process and has responsibilityfor the development of the Synthesis Report. A NationalAssessment Working Group under the auspices of theUSGCRP has lead responsibility for organizing andsponsoring the sectoral analyses and oversight andcoordination responsibilities for regional analyses. ANational Assessment Coordination Office has beenestablished to facilitate coordination of the entire nationalassessment process. The National Assessment SynthesisReport is targeted for completion by January 1, 2000, andis intended to satisfy the mandate for an assessmentdefined in P.L. 101-606 and serve as part of the U.S.contribution to the IPCC Third Assessment Report

Return to 1990: The cost of mitigating United States carbon emissions in the post-2000 period

The Second Generation Model (SGM) is employed to examine four hypothetical agreements to reduce emissions in Annex 1 nations (OECD nations plus most of the nations of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union) to levels in the neighborhood of those which existed in 1990, with obligations taking effect in the year 2010. The authors estimate the cost to the US of complying with such agreements under three distinct conditions: no trading of emissions rights, trading of emissions rights only among Annex 1 nations, and a fully global trading regime. The authors find that the marginal cost of returning to 1990 emissions levels in the US in the absence of trading opportunities is approximately $108 per metric ton carbon in 2010. The total cost in that year is approximately 0.2% of GDP. International trade in emissions permits lowers the cost of achieving any mitigation objective by equalizing the marginal cost of carbon mitigation among countries. For the four mitigation scenarios in this study, economic costs to the US remain below 1% of GDP through at least the year 2020

Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate

Busulphan is active against neuroblastoma and medulloblastoma xenografts in athymic mice at clinically achievable plasma drug concentrations

High-dose busulphan-containing chemotherapy regimens have shown high response rates in children with relapsed or refractory neuroblastoma, Ewing's sarcoma and medulloblastoma. However, the anti-tumour activity of busulfan as a single agent remains to be defined, and this was evaluated in athymic mice bearing advanced stage subcutaneous paediatric solid tumour xenografts. Because busulphan is highly insoluble in water, the use of several vehicles for enteral and parenteral administration was first investigated in terms of pharmacokinetics and toxicity. The highest bioavailability was obtained with busulphan in DMSO administered i.p. When busulphan was suspended in carboxymethylcellulose and given orally or i.p., the bioavailability was poor. Then, in the therapeutic experiments, busulphan in DMSO was administered i.p. on days 0 and 4. At the maximum tolerated total dose (50 mg kg−1), busulphan induced a significant tumour growth delay, ranging from 12 to 34 days in the three neuroblastomas evaluated and in one out of three medulloblastomas. At a dose level above the maximum tolerated dose, busulphan induced complete and partial tumour regressions. Busulphan was inactive in a peripheral primitive neuroectodermal tumour (PNET) xenograft. When busulphan pharmacokinetics in mice and humans were considered, the estimated systemic exposure at the therapeutically active dose in mice (113 μg h ml−1) was close to the mean total systemic exposure in children receiving high-dose busulphan (102.4 μg h ml−1). In conclusion, busulphan displayed a significant anti-tumour activity in neuroblastoma and medulloblastoma xenografts at plasma drug concentrations which can be achieved clinically in children receiving high-dose busulphan-containing regimens. 1999 Cancer Research Campaig

Is complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) cost-effective? a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Out-of-pocket expenditures of over $34 billion per year in the US are an apparent testament to a widely held belief that complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) therapies have benefits that outweigh their costs. However, regardless of public opinion, there is often little more than anecdotal evidence on the health and economic implications of CAM therapies. The objectives of this study are to present an overview of economic evaluation and to expand upon a previous review to examine the current scope and quality of CAM economic evaluations. METHODS: The data sources used were Medline, AMED, Alt-HealthWatch, and the Complementary and Alternative Medicine Citation Index; January 1999 to October 2004. Papers that reported original data on specific CAM therapies from any form of standard economic analysis were included. Full economic evaluations were subjected to two types of quality review. The first was a 35-item checklist for reporting quality, and the second was a set of four criteria for study quality (randomization, prospective collection of economic data, comparison to usual care, and no blinding). RESULTS: A total of 56 economic evaluations (39 full evaluations) of CAM were found covering a range of therapies applied to a variety of conditions. The reporting quality of the full evaluations was poor for certain items, but was comparable to the quality found by systematic reviews of economic evaluations in conventional medicine. Regarding study quality, 14 (36%) studies were found to meet all four criteria. These exemplary studies indicate CAM therapies that may be considered cost-effective compared to usual care for various conditions: acupuncture for migraine, manual therapy for neck pain, spa therapy for Parkinson's, self-administered stress management for cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy, pre- and post-operative oral nutritional supplementation for lower gastrointestinal tract surgery, biofeedback for patients with "functional" disorders (eg, irritable bowel syndrome), and guided imagery, relaxation therapy, and potassium-rich diet for cardiac patients. CONCLUSION: Whereas the number and quality of economic evaluations of CAM have increased in recent years and more CAM therapies have been shown to be of good value, the majority of CAM therapies still remain to be evaluated

The tonic immobility test: Do wild and captive golden mantella frogs (Mantella aurantiaca) have the same response?

Adaptations to captivity that reduce fitness are one of many reasons, which explain the low success rate of reintroductions. One way of testing this hypothesis is to compare an important behavioural response in captive and wild members of the same species. Thanatosis, is an anti-predator strategy that reduces the risk of death from predation, which is a common behavioral response in frogs. The study subjects for this investigation were captive and wild populations of Mantella aurantiaca. Thanatosis reaction was measured using the Tonic Immobility (TI) test, a method that consists of placing a frog on its back, restraining it in this position for a short period of time and then releasing it and measuring how much time was spent feigning death. To understand the pattern of reaction time, morphometric data were also collected as body condition can affect the duration of thanatosis. The significantly different TI times found in this study, one captive population with shorter responses, were principally an effect of body condition rather than being a result of rearing environment. However, this does not mean that we can always dismiss the importance of rearing environment in terms of behavioural skills expressed