2,551 research outputs found

    Rising Temperatures, Falling Ratings: The Effect of Climate Change on Sovereign Creditworthiness

    Get PDF
    Enthusiasm for ‘greening the financial system’ is welcome, but a fundamental challenge remains: financial decision makers lack the necessary information. It is not enough to know that climate change is bad. Markets need credible, digestible information on how climate change translates into material risks. To bridge the gap between climate science and real-world financial indicators, we simulate the effect of climate change on sovereign credit ratings for 108 countries, creating the world’s first climate-adjusted sovereign credit rating. Under various warming scenarios, we find evidence of climate-induced sovereign downgrades as early as 2030, increasing in intensity and across more countries over the century. We find strong evidence that stringent climate policy consistent with limiting warming to below 2°C, honouring the Paris Climate Agreement, and following RCP 2.6 could nearly eliminate the effect of climate change on ratings. In contrast, under higher emissions scenarios (i.e., RCP 8.5), 63 sovereigns experience climate-induced downgrades by 2030, with an average reduction of 1.02 notches, rising to 80 sovereigns facing an average downgrade of 2.48 notches by 2100. We calculate the effect of climate-induced sovereign downgrades on the cost of corporate and sovereign debt. Across the sample, climate change could increase the annual interest payments on sovereign debt by US2233billionunderRCP2.6,risingtoUS 22–33 billion under RCP 2.6, rising to US 137–205 billion under RCP 8.5. The additional cost to corporates is US7.212.6billionunderRCP2.6,andUS 7.2–12.6 billion under RCP 2.6, and US 35.8–62.6 billion under RCP 8.5

    Fock space exploration by angle resolved transmission through quantum diffraction grating of cold atoms in an optical lattice

    Full text link
    Light transmission or diffraction from different quantum phases of cold atoms in an optical lattice has recently come up as a useful tool to probe such ultra cold atomic systems. The periodic nature of the optical lattice potential closely resembles the structure of a diffraction grating in real space, but loaded with a strongly correlated quantum many body state which interacts with the incident electromagnetic wave, a feature that controls the nature of the light transmission or dispersion through such quantum medium. In this paper we show that as one varies the relative angle between the cavity mode and the optical lattice, the peak of the transmission spectrum through such cavity also changes reflecting the statistical distribution of the atoms in the illuminated sites. Consequently the angle resolved transmission spectrum of such quantum diffraction grating can provide a plethora of information about the Fock space structure of the many body quantum state of ultra cold atoms in such an optical cavity that can be explored in current state of the art experiments.Comment: 40 double spaced, single column pages, 40 .eps figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review

    Three-Dimensional Genome Architecture Influences Partner Selection for Chromosomal Translocations in Human Disease

    Get PDF
    Chromosomal translocations are frequent features of cancer genomes that contribute to disease progression. These rearrangements result from formation and illegitimate repair of DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs), a process that requires spatial colocalization of chromosomal breakpoints. The “contact first” hypothesis suggests that translocation partners colocalize in the nuclei of normal cells, prior to rearrangement. It is unclear, however, the extent to which spatial interactions based on three-dimensional genome architecture contribute to chromosomal rearrangements in human disease. Here we intersect Hi-C maps of three-dimensional chromosome conformation with collections of 1,533 chromosomal translocations from cancer and germline genomes. We show that many translocation-prone pairs of regions genome-wide, including the cancer translocation partners BCR-ABL and MYC-IGH, display elevated Hi-C contact frequencies in normal human cells. Considering tissue specificity, we find that translocation breakpoints reported in human hematologic malignancies have higher Hi-C contact frequencies in lymphoid cells than those reported in sarcomas and epithelial tumors. However, translocations from multiple tissue types show significant correlation with Hi-C contact frequencies, suggesting that both tissue-specific and universal features of chromatin structure contribute to chromosomal alterations. Our results demonstrate that three-dimensional genome architecture shapes the landscape of rearrangements directly observed in human disease and establish Hi-C as a key method for dissecting these effects.National Human Genome Research Institute (U.S.) (grant T32 HG002295)United States. Dept. of Defense (National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship Program)Fannie and John Hertz FoundationNational Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (grant 5T32 GM008313)National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U.S.) (Medical Scientist Training Program

    Climate Change and Fiscal Sustainability: Risks and Opportunities

    Get PDF
    Both the physical and transition-related impacts of climate change pose substantial macroeconomic risks. Yet, markets still lack credible estimates of how climate change will affect debt sustainability, sovereign creditworthiness, and the public finances of major economies. We present a taxonomy for tracing the physical and transition impacts of climate change through to impacts on sovereign risk. We then apply the taxonomy to the UK's potential transition to net zero. Meeting internationally agreed climate targets will require an unprecedented structural transformation of the global economy over the next two or three decades. The changing landscape of risks warrants new risk management and hedging strategies to contain climate risk and minimise the impact of asset stranding and asset devaluation. Yet, conditional on action being taken early, the opportunities from managing a net zero transition would substantially outweigh the costs

    Valuing the social and environmental contribution of woodlands and trees in England, Scotland and Wales

    Get PDF
    Final published report. This publication is also available on the Foresty Commission website at: www.forestry.gov.uk/publicationsFirst published by the Forestry Commission in 2017.A second edition of this report is available in ORE: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/36539The diverse resources provided by trees and woodlands contribute to the production of a wide array of benefits ranging from timber to wildlife habitats and from carbon storage to water purification. This diversity is further complicated by the fact that, while some of the goods associated with forests are traded in markets and hence have associated prices, others arise outside markets and, while valuable, lack prices. The need to make evidencebased decisions regarding woodlands, including decisions such as how much public funding should be allocated to support the non-market benefits they generate, has necessitated the estimation of the value of those benefits. This scoping study provides a structured review of the state of knowledge regarding the economic valuation of social and environmental benefits derived from trees and woodlands in order to support policy and practice. Particular (although not exclusive) attention is paid to recent extensions to the literature since previous reviews (especially Eftec, 2011)

    Phase 1b/2a trial of the superoxide dismutase mimetic GC4419 to reduce chemoradiotherapy-induced oral mucositis in patients with oral cavity or oropharyngeal carcinoma

    Get PDF
    PURPOSE: To assess the safety of the superoxide dismutase mimetic GC4419 in combination with radiation and concurrent cisplatin for patients with oral cavity or oropharyngeal cancer (OCC) and to assess the potential of GC4419 to reduce severe oral mucositis (OM). PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with locally advanced OCC treated with definitive or postoperative intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plus cisplatin received GC4419 by 60-minute intravenous infusion, ending \u3c60 minutes before IMRT, Monday through Friday for 3 to 7 weeks, in a dose and duration escalation study. Oral mucositis was assessed twice weekly during and weekly after IMRT. RESULTS: A total of 46 patients received GC4419 in 11 separate dosing and duration cohorts: dose escalation occurred in 5 cohorts receiving 15 to 112 mg/d over 3 weeks (n=20), duration escalation in 3 cohorts receiving 112 mg/d over 4 to 6 weeks (n=12), and then 3 additional cohorts receiving 30 or 90 mg/d over 6 to 7 weeks (n=14). A maximum tolerated dose was not reached. One dose-limiting toxicity (grade 3 gastroenteritis and vomiting with hyponatremia) occurred in each of 2 separate cohorts at 112 mg. Nausea/vomiting and facial paresthesia during infusion seemed to be GC4419 dose-related. Severe OM occurred through 60 Gy in 4 of 14 patients (29%) dosed for 6 to 7 weeks, with median duration of only 2.5 days. CONCLUSIONS: The safety of GC4419 concurrently with chemoradiation for OCC was acceptable. Toxicities included nausea/vomiting and paresthesia. Doses of 30 and 90 mg/d administered for 7 weeks were selected for further study. In an exploratory analysis, severe OM seemed less frequent and briefer than expected

    Study of MicroPattern Gaseous detectors with novel nanodiamond based photocathodes for single photon detection in EIC RICH

    Full text link
    Identification of high momentum hadrons at the future EIC is crucial, gaseous RICH detectors are therefore viable option. Compact collider setups impose to construct RICHes with small radiator length, hence significantly limiting the number of detected photons. More photons can be detected in the far UV region, using a windowless RICH approach. QE of CsI degrades under strong irradiation and air contamination. Nanodiamond based photocathodes (PCs) are being developed as an alternative to CsI. Recent development of layers of hydrogenated nanodiamond powders as an alternative photosensitive material and their performance, when coupled to the THick Gaseous Electron Multipliers (THGEM)-based detectors, are the objects of an ongoing R\&D. We report about the initial phase of our studies.Comment: 3 pages, 5 figures, RICH2018 conference proceedin

    Valuing the social and environmental contribution of woodlands and trees in England, Scotland and Wales. Second edition: to 2018

    Get PDF
    The first edition of this report is available in ORE: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/25958Woodlands and forests constitute arguably the most diverse environments on earth; diverse not only in terms of the plethora of characteristics and habitats they embrace, but also through the variety of benefits and values that they offer to people. While this diversity of benefits is now widely recognised, incorporating these values into decisions regarding the management and extension of woodland remains a challenge. While the value of some forest products, such as timber, is readily reflected within market prices, this is the exception rather than the rule. Most of the benefits provided by woodlands are not traded through markets and are therefore unpriced public goods. The UK Forestry Commission have for many years directly addressed the problem of incorporating the non-market benefits of woodland within conventional economic decision making through the application of techniques to estimate the economic value of these benefits (e.g. Willis, et al., 2003). As part of this initiative, in 2015 the Forestry Commission began working with the authors of the present report to provide a review of the research, policy and grey literature concerned with the economic valuation of the social and environmental benefits of woodlands and trees. This review, subsequently published as Binner et al., (2017) also included the development of a spreadsheet based decision support tool to facilitate the use of valuation estimates within decision making. The present report provides a second edition of that report, updating both the literature review and the accompanying spreadsheet decision support tool. In preparing this study, the research team at the University of Exeter undertook a structured reviewed of how technical and methodological developments are transforming the potential for robust valuation of non-market benefits and allied decision-making. The methods, data and modelling techniques, which underpin the existing evidence base on the value of woodlands and trees were critically evaluated, so as to provide a practical set of actionable options for enhancing that evidence base and improving decision making

    Level Density of a Bose Gas and Extreme Value Statistics

    Full text link
    We establish a connection between the level density of a gas of non-interacting bosons and the theory of extreme value statistics. Depending on the exponent that characterizes the growth of the underlying single-particle spectrum, we show that at a given excitation energy the limiting distribution function for the number of excited particles follows the three universal distribution laws of extreme value statistics, namely Gumbel, Weibull and Fr\'echet. Implications of this result, as well as general properties of the level density at different energies, are discussed.Comment: 4 pages, no figure
    corecore