Assessing risk prediction models using individual participant data from multiple studies.

Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous

Psychological impact and acceptability of magnetic resonance imaging and X-ray mammography: the MARIBS Study

BACKGROUND: As part of the Magnetic Resonance Imaging for Breast Screening (MARIBS), Study women with a family history of breast cancer were assessed psychologically to determine the relative psychological impact and acceptability of annual screening using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and conventional X-ray mammography (XRM). METHODS: Women were assessed psychologically at baseline (4 weeks before MRI and XRM), immediately before, and immediately after, both MRI and XRM, and at follow-up (6 weeks after the scans). RESULTS: Overall, both procedures were found to be acceptable with high levels of satisfaction (MRI, 96.3% and XRM, 97.7%; NS) and low levels of psychological morbidity throughout, particularly at 6-week follow-up. Low levels of self-reported distress were reported for both procedures (MRI, 13.5% and XRM, 7.8%), although MRI was more distressing (P=0.005). Similarly, higher anticipatory anxiety was reported before MRI than before XRM (P=0.003). Relative to XRM, MRI-related distress was more likely to persist at 6 weeks after the scans in the form of intrusive MRI-related thoughts (P=0.006) and total MRI-related distress (P=0.014). More women stated that they intended to return for XRM (96.3%) than for MRI (88%; P<0.0005). These effects were most marked for the first year of screening, although they were also statistically significant in subsequent years. CONCLUSION: Given the proven benefits of MRI in screening for breast cancer in this population, these data point to the urgent need to provide timely information and support to women undergoing MRI.The national study is supported by a grant from the UK Medical Research Council (G960413

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3–19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8–144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Autocompensating Quantum Cryptography

Quantum cryptographic key distribution (QKD) uses extremely faint light pulses to carry quantum information between two parties (Alice and Bob), allowing them to generate a shared, secret cryptographic key. Autocompensating QKD systems automatically and passively compensate for uncontrolled time dependent variations of the optical fiber properties by coding the information as a differential phase between orthogonally-polarized components of a light pulse sent on a round trip through the fiber, reflected at mid-course using a Faraday mirror. We have built a prototype system based on standard telecom technology that achieves a privacy-amplified bit generation rate of ~1000 bits/s over a 10-km optical fiber link. Quantum cryptography is an example of an application that, by using quantum states of individual particles to represent information, accomplishes a practical task that is impossible using classical means.Comment: 18 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Submitted to the New Journal of Physic

Women's Experiences and Views about Costs of Seeking Malaria Chemoprevention and other Antenatal Services: A Qualitative Study from two Districts in Rural Tanzania.

The Tanzanian government recommends women who attend antenatal care (ANC) clinics to accept receiving intermittent preventive treatment against malaria during pregnancy (IPTp) and vouchers for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) at subsidized prices. Little emphasis has been paid to investigate the ability of pregnant women to access and effectively utilize these services. To describe the experience and perceptions of pregnant women about costs and cost barriers for accessing ANC services with emphasis on IPTp in rural Tanzania. Qualitative data were collected in the districts of Mufindi in Iringa Region and Mkuranga in Coast Region through 1) focus group discussions (FGDs) with pregnant women and mothers to infants and 2) exit-interviews with pregnant women identified at ANC clinics. Data were analyzed manually using qualitative content analysis methodology. FGD participants and interview respondents identified the following key limiting factors for women's use of ANC services: 1) costs in terms of money and time associated with accessing ANC clinics, 2) the presence of more or less official user-fees for some services within the ANC package, and 3) service providers' application of fines, penalties and blame when failing to adhere to service schedules. Interestingly, the time associated with travelling long distances to ANC clinics and ITN retailers and with waiting for services at clinic-level was a major factor of discouragement in the health seeking behaviour of pregnant women because it seriously affected their domestic responsibilities. A variety of resource-related factors were shown to affect the health seeking behaviour of pregnant women in rural Tanzania. Thus, accessibility to ANC services was hampered by direct and indirect costs, travel distances and waiting time. Strengthening of user-fee exemption practices and bringing services closer to the users, for example by promoting community-directed control of selected public health services, including IPTp, are urgently needed measures for increasing equity in health services in Tanzania

Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331 288 participants

Background: Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA1c. We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classifi cation of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in diff erent regions. Methods: We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA1c (HbA1c ≥6·5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG ≥7·0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT ≥11·1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings: Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r=0·98), but was higher by 2–6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA1c was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42·8% of age–sex–survey groups and higher in another 41·6%; in the other 15·6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA1c-based prevalences was partly related to participants’ age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA1c 6·5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52·8% (95% CI 51·3–54·3%) and a pooled specificity of 99·74% (99·71–99·78%) compared with FPG 7·0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPGor-2hOGTT was 30·5% (28·7–32·3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA1c versus FPG. Interpretation: Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA1c-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test

A predictive model for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalisation of premature infants born at 33–35 weeks of gestational age, based on data from the Spanish FLIP study

Background: The aim of this study, conducted in Europe, was to develop a validated risk factor based model to predict RSV-related hospitalisation in premature infants born 33-35 weeks' gestational age (GA). Methods: The predictive model was developed using risk factors captured in the Spanish FLIP dataset, a case-control study of 183 premature infants born between 33-35 weeks' GA who were hospitalised with RSV, and 371 age-matched controls. The model was validated internally by 100-fold bootstrapping. Discriminant function analysis was used to analyse combinations of risk factors to predict RSV hospitalisation. Successive models were chosen that had the highest probability for discriminating between hospitalised and non-hospitalised infants. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted. Results: An initial 15 variable model was produced with a discriminant function of 72% and an area under the ROC curve of 0.795. A step-wise reduction exercise, alongside recalculations of some variables, produced a final model consisting of 7 variables: birth +/- 10 weeks of start of season, birth weight, breast feeding for = 2 years, family members with atopy, family members with wheeze, and gender. The discrimination of this model was 71% and the area under the ROC curve was 0.791. At the 0.75 sensitivity intercept, the false positive fraction was 0.33. The 100-fold bootstrapping resulted in a mean discriminant function of 72% (standard deviation: 2.18) and a median area under the ROC curve of 0.785 (range: 0.768-0.790), indicating a good internal validation. The calculated NNT for intervention to treat all at risk patients with a 75% level of protection was 11.7 (95% confidence interval: 9.5-13.6). Conclusion: A robust model based on seven risk factors was developed, which is able to predict which premature infants born between 33-35 weeks' GA are at highest risk of hospitalisation from RSV. The model could be used to optimise prophylaxis with palivizumab across Europe

Evaluation of Human Papilloma Virus Diagnostic Testing in Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Sensitivity, Specificity, and Prognostic Discrimination

Abstract Purpose: Human papillomavirus-16 (HPV16) is the causative agent in a biologically distinct subset of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) with highly favorable prognosis. In clinical trials, HPV16 status is an essential inclusion or stratification parameter, highlighting the importance of accurate testing. Experimental Design: Fixed and fresh-frozen tissue from 108 OPSCC cases were subject to eight possible assay/assay combinations: p16 immunohistochemistry (p16 IHC); in situ hybridization for high-risk HPV (HR HPV ISH); quantitative PCR (qPCR) for both viral E6 RNA (RNA qPCR) and DNA (DNA qPCR); and combinations of the above. Results: HPV16-positive OPSCC presented in younger patients (mean 7.5 years younger, P = 0.003) who smoked less than HPV-negative patients (P = 0.007). The proportion of HPV16-positive cases increased from 15% to 57% (P = 0.001) between 1988 and 2009. A combination of p16 IHC/DNA qPCR showed acceptable sensitivity (97%) and specificity (94%) compared with the RNA qPCR “gold standard”, as well as being the best discriminator of favorable outcome (overall survival P = 0.002). p16 IHC/HR HPV ISH also had acceptable specificity (90%) but the substantial reduction in its sensitivity (88%) impacted upon its prognostic value (P = 0.02). p16 IHC, HR HPV ISH, or DNA qPCR was not sufficiently specific to recommend in clinical trials when used in isolation. Conclusions: Caution must be exercised in applying HPV16 diagnostic tests because of significant disparities in accuracy and prognostic value in previously published techniques. Clin Cancer Res; 17(19); 6262–71. ©2011 AACR.</jats:p