Earthquake Hazard Mitigation in the New Madrid Seismic Zone: Science and Public Policy

In the central United States, earthquake sources that are not well defined, long earthquake recurrence intervals, and uncertain ground-motion attenuation models have contributed to an overstatement of seismic hazard for the New Madrid Seismic Zone on the national seismic hazard maps published by the U.S. Geological Survey. A series of informal interviews in western Kentucky with local businesspersons, public officials, and other professionals in occupations associated with seismic-hazard mitigation discussed seismic-mitigation policies in relation to depressed local economy. Scientific and relative economic analysis was then performed using scenario earthquake models developed with the Federal Emergency management Agency\u27s Hazus-MH software. The ground-motion hazard generated by the 2008 Wenchuan, China, earthquake and seismic mitigation policies in that area were compared with those of the New Madrid Seismic Zone. Continued scientific research, additional educational opportunities for laymen and engineering professionals, and changes in the application of current earthquake science to public policy in the central United States should help improve public safety and economic development

Geologic Characterization, Hydrologic Monitoring, and Soil-Water Relationships for Landslides in Kentucky

Complex spatial and temporal variables control the movement of water through colluvial soils in hillslopes. Some of the factors that influence soil-moisture fluctuation are soil type, thickness, porosity and permeability, and slope morphology. Landslide-characterization and field-monitoring techniques were part of a method to connect hydrologic and geotechnical data in order to monitor long-term hydrologic conditions in three active landslides in Kentucky, establish hydrologic relationships across the slope, and analyze specific soil-water relationships that can predict shear strength. Volumetric water content, water potential, and electrical conductivity were measured between October 2015 and February 2019. The duration and magnitude of drying and wetting within the soil varied for each slope location and soil depth, suggesting that differences in slope morphology, soil texture, and porosity influence the water-infiltration process, as well as shear strength and general landslide dynamics. The parameters measured and soil-water relationships were also compared to rainfall and slope movement at one of the landslides. The method used to acquire hydrologic data was cost-effective, and the field techniques may be useful for subsequent projects, such as slope-stability assessments and landslide-susceptibility modeling. Hydrologic parameters, volumetric water content, and water potential are pertinent to investigating the stability of landslides, which are often triggered or reactivated by rainfall. These methods can be used to support landslide-hazard assessment and improve our understanding of the long-term influence of moisture conditions in hillslope soils

Reconnaissance of Landslides and Debris Flows Associated with the July 2022 Flooding in Eastern Kentucky

Between July 25 and July 30, 2022, a series of convective storms generated approximately 14–16 inches of rainfall across parts of eastern Kentucky, predominately in Clay, Leslie, Perry, Breathitt, Knott, and Letcher Counties. The peak rainfall occurred on the evening of July 27 and the morning of July 28, with the hardest-hit areas experiencing more than 10 inches in a 24-hour period. The historic rainfall led to catastrophic flooding along many rivers and streams, but also triggered widespread landslides and debris flows that damaged roads, homes, property, and other infrastructure. Once initial relief and recovery efforts were established, the Kentucky Geological Survey (KGS) geohazard section conducted a preliminary field reconnaissance that observed and documented landslides and debris flows triggered by the July storm event. We documented landslides from late August to early November 2022 using (1) visual field inspection methods and (2) a remote sensing technique called normalized differencing vegetation index (NDVI). Visual field inspection occurred primarily along roads through documentation of landslide type and location. The NDVI technique allowed identification of larger landslides and debris flows not easily accessible in a vehicle. We identified more than 1,000 new landslides and debris flows triggered by the July event. The majority of landslides the team identified were shallow translational slides, supplemented by some rotational slides (slumps), and debris flows. Documenting landslides in the field before they perish is important for future hazard assessment modeling. Landslide inventories associated with large storm events, and large impact areas, will improve our understanding of landslide occurrence and rainfall rates, and potentially our ability to forecast landslides. The data is intended for use by both scientists and non-scientists, such as emergency managers and public safety decision-makers

Lake Michigan’s suitability for bigheaded carp: The importance of diet flexibility and subsurface habitat

As bighead (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) and silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix)—collectively bigheaded carp (BHC)—arrive at Lake Michigan’s doorstep, questions remain as to whether there is sufficient food to support these invasive filter‐feeding fishes in the upper Laurentian Great Lakes. Previous studies suggest that suitable BHC habitat is limited to a few productive, nearshore areas. However, those studies did not consider the influence of BHC’s diet plasticity or the presence of spatially‐discrete subsurface prey resources. This study aimed to characterise Lake Michigan’s suitability for BHC and evaluate the importance of these considerations in habitat suitability assessments.We used simulated outputs of prey biomass (phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus) and water temperature from a three‐dimensional biophysical model of Lake Michigan to evaluate growth rate potential (GRP, quantitative index of habitat suitability) of adult BHC throughout the entire volume of the lake. Our GRP model applied a foraging model and a bioenergetics model to translate prey concentrations and water temperatures into habitat quality indexed by individual fish growth rate. We defined suitable habitat as habitats that can support GRP ≥ 0 g g−1 day−1. We developed six feeding scenarios to evaluate the impact of diet flexibility and subsurface prey resources on suitable habitat quantity. Scenarios were defined by the number of prey types the fish could consume and the depths at which they could feed (surface or whole water column).Consistent with previous studies, we found that habitats with the highest quality were concentrated near river mouths and in eutrophic areas of Green Bay. However, in contrast to previous studies, we found suitable offshore habitat for bighead carp owing to our added considerations of diet plasticity and subsurface prey resources. For silver carp, these considerations extended suitable habitat within Green Bay and in some tributary‐influenced nearshore areas, but offshore areas remained predominantly unsuitable in all feeding scenarios. Differences in simulated habitat suitability between these two species probably reflect differences in energy density and mass of the specific fishes we used in our model. However, reports of these two species in environments where they coexist indicate that bighead carp grow at faster rates than silver carp, as our model simulated.Our vertical analysis at Muskegon, MI, U.S.A. indicates that subsurface temperature and prey biomass are not only sufficient to support bighead carp growth but provide maximum habitat quality during late summer stratification.Overall, our study demonstrates that BHC are capable of surviving and growing in much larger areas of Lake Michigan than predicted by previous studies, and thus suggests that the risk of establishment is not sufficiently reduced by low plankton concentrations. Maps generated by our model identified the potential for cross‐lake migration corridors that may facilitate and accelerate lake‐wide movements. We believe these maps could be used to prioritise surveillance protocols by identifying areas to which BHC might spread upon entering the lake. More broadly, this research demonstrates how the physiology and trophic ecology of BHC contributes to their high invasive capacity and can permit their survival in novel environments.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151968/1/fwb13382_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151968/2/fwb13382.pd

Application of a synthetic human proteome to autoantigen discovery through PhIP-Seq

In this study, we improve on current autoantigen discovery approaches by creating a synthetic representation of the complete human proteome, the T7 “peptidome” phage display library (T7-Pep), and use it to profile the autoantibody repertoires of individual patients. We provide methods for 1) designing and cloning large libraries of DNA microarray-derived oligonucleotides encoding peptides for display on bacteriophage, and 2) analysis of the peptide libraries using high throughput DNA sequencing. We applied phage immunoprecipitation sequencing (PhIP-Seq) to identify both known and novel autoantibodies contained in the spinal fluid of three patients with paraneoplastic neurological syndromes. We also show how our approach can be used more generally to identify peptide-protein interactions and point toward ways in which this technology will be further developed in the future. We envision that PhIP-Seq can become an important new tool in autoantibody analysis, as well as proteomic research in general

Triplet Repeat–Derived siRNAs Enhance RNA–Mediated Toxicity in a Drosophila Model for Myotonic Dystrophy

More than 20 human neurological and neurodegenerative diseases are caused by simple DNA repeat expansions; among these, non-coding CTG repeat expansions are the basis of myotonic dystrophy (DM1). Recent work, however, has also revealed that many human genes have anti-sense transcripts, raising the possibility that human trinucleotide expansion diseases may be comprised of pathogenic activities due both to a sense expanded-repeat transcript and to an anti-sense expanded-repeat transcript. We established a Drosophila model for DM1 and tested the role of interactions between expanded CTG transcripts and expanded CAG repeat transcripts. These studies revealed dramatically enhanced toxicity in flies co-expressing CTG with CAG expanded repeats. Expression of the two transcripts led to novel pathogenesis with the generation of dcr-2 and ago2-dependent 21-nt triplet repeat-derived siRNAs. These small RNAs targeted the expression of CAG-containing genes, such as Ataxin-2 and TATA binding protein (TBP), which bear long CAG repeats in both fly and man. These findings indicate that the generation of triplet repeat-derived siRNAs may dramatically enhance toxicity in human repeat expansion diseases in which anti-sense transcription occurs

A hierarchical and modular approach to the discovery of robust associations in genome-wide association studies from pooled DNA samples

[Background] One of the challenges of the analysis of pooling-based genome wide association studies is to identify authentic associations among potentially thousands of false positive associations. [Results] We present a hierarchical and modular approach to the analysis of genome wide genotype data that incorporates quality control, linkage disequilibrium, physical distance and gene ontology to identify authentic associations among those found by statistical association tests. The method is developed for the allelic association analysis of pooled DNA samples, but it can be easily generalized to the analysis of individually genotyped samples. We evaluate the approach using data sets from diverse genome wide association studies including fetal hemoglobin levels in sickle cell anemia and a sample of centenarians and show that the approach is highly reproducible and allows for discovery at different levels of synthesis. [Conclusion] Results from the integration of Bayesian tests and other machine learning techniques with linkage disequilibrium data suggest that we do not need to use too stringent thresholds to reduce the number of false positive associations. This method yields increased power even with relatively small samples. In fact, our evaluation shows that the method can reach almost 70% sensitivity with samples of only 100 subjects.Supported by NHLBI grants R21 HL080463 (PS); R01 HL68970 (MHS); K-24, AG025727 (TP); K23 AG026754 (D.T.)

PolyQ Repeat Expansions in ATXN2 Associated with ALS Are CAA Interrupted Repeats

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a devastating, rapidly progressive disease leading to paralysis and death. Recently, intermediate length polyglutamine (polyQ) repeats of 27–33 in ATAXIN-2 (ATXN2), encoding the ATXN2 protein, were found to increase risk for ALS. In ATXN2, polyQ expansions of ≥34, which are pure CAG repeat expansions, cause spinocerebellar ataxia type 2. However, similar length expansions that are interrupted with other codons, can present atypically with parkinsonism, suggesting that configuration of the repeat sequence plays an important role in disease manifestation in ATXN2 polyQ expansion diseases. Here we determined whether the expansions in ATXN2 associated with ALS were pure or interrupted CAG repeats, and defined single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) rs695871 and rs695872 in exon 1 of the gene, to assess haplotype association. We found that the expanded repeat alleles of 40 ALS patients and 9 long-repeat length controls were all interrupted, bearing 1–3 CAA codons within the CAG repeat. 21/21 expanded ALS chromosomes with 3CAA interruptions arose from one haplotype (GT), while 18/19 expanded ALS chromosomes with <3CAA interruptions arose from a different haplotype (CC). Moreover, age of disease onset was significantly earlier in patients bearing 3 interruptions vs fewer, and was distinct between haplotypes. These results indicate that CAG repeat expansions in ATXN2 associated with ALS are uniformly interrupted repeats and that the nature of the repeat sequence and haplotype, as well as length of polyQ repeat, may play a role in the neurological effect conferred by expansions in ATXN2

Burden of Total and Cause-Specific Mortality Related to Tobacco Smoking among Adults Aged ≥45 Years in Asia: A Pooled Analysis of 21 Cohorts

Background:Tobacco smoking is a major risk factor for many diseases. We sought to quantify the burden of tobacco-smoking-related deaths in Asia, in parts of which men's smoking prevalence is among the world's highest.Methods and Findings:We performed pooled analyses of data from 1,049,929 participants in 21 cohorts in Asia to quantify the risks of total and cause-specific mortality associated with tobacco smoking using adjusted hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. We then estimated smoking-related deaths among adults aged ≥45 y in 2004 in Bangladesh, India, mainland China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan-accounting for ∼71% of Asia's total population. An approximately 1.44-fold (95% CI = 1.37-1.51) and 1.48-fold (1.38-1.58) elevated risk of death from any cause was found in male and female ever-smokers, respectively. In 2004, active tobacco smoking accounted for approximately 15.8% (95% CI = 14.3%-17.2%) and 3.3% (2.6%-4.0%) of deaths, respectively, in men and women aged ≥45 y in the seven countries/regions combined, with a total number of estimated deaths of ∼1,575,500 (95% CI = 1,398,000-1,744,700). Among men, approximately 11.4%, 30.5%, and 19.8% of deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and respiratory diseases, respectively, were attributable to tobacco smoking. Corresponding proportions for East Asian women were 3.7%, 4.6%, and 1.7%, respectively. The strongest association with tobacco smoking was found for lung cancer: A 3- to 4-fold elevated risk, accounting for 60.5% and 16.7% of lung cancer deaths, respectively, in Asian men and East Asian women aged ≥45 y.Conclusions:Tobacco smoking is associated with a substantially elevated risk of mortality, accounting for approximately 2 million deaths in adults aged ≥45 y throughout Asia in 2004. It is likely that smoking-related deaths in Asia will continue to rise over the next few decades if no effective smoking control programs are implemented.Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary. © 2014 Zheng et al