Evaluation of onset, cessation and seasonal precipitation of the Southeast Asia rainy season in CMIP5 regional climate models and HighResMIP global climate models

Representing the rainy season of the maritime continent is a challenge for global and regional climate models. Here, we compare regional climate models (RCMs) based on the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) model generation with high-resolution global climate models with a comparable spatial resolution from the HighResMIP experiment. The onset and the total precipitation of the rainy season for both model experiments are compared against observational datasets for Southeast Asia. A realistic representation of the monsoon rainfall is essential for agriculture in Southeast Asia as a delayed onset jeopardizes the possibility of having three annual crops. In general, the coupled historical runs (Hist-1950) and the historical force atmosphere run (HighresSST) of the high-resolution model intercomparison project (HighResMIP) suite were consistently closer to the observations than the RCM of CMIP5 used in this study. We find that for the whole of Southeast Asia, the HighResMIP models simulate the onset date and the total precipitation of the rainy season over the region closer to the observations than the other model sets used in this study. High-resolution models in the HighresSST experiment showed a similar performance to their low-resolution equivalents in simulating the monsoon characteristics. The HighresSST experiment simulated the anomaly of the onset date and the total precipitation for different El Niño-southern oscillation conditions best, although the magnitude of the onset date anomaly was underestimated. © 2021 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society

Lyapunov exponents, one-dimensional Anderson localisation and products of random matrices

The concept of Lyapunov exponent has long occupied a central place in the theory of Anderson localisation; its interest in this particular context is that it provides a reasonable measure of the localisation length. The Lyapunov exponent also features prominently in the theory of products of random matrices pioneered by Furstenberg. After a brief historical survey, we describe some recent work that exploits the close connections between these topics. We review the known solvable cases of disordered quantum mechanics involving random point scatterers and discuss a new solvable case. Finally, we point out some limitations of the Lyapunov exponent as a means of studying localisation properties.Comment: LaTeX, 23 pages, 3 pdf figures ; review for a special issue on "Lyapunov analysis" ; v2 : typo corrected in eq.(3) & minor change

Impact of increased resolution on long-standing biases in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate models

We examine the influence of increased resolution on four long-standing biases using five different climate models developed within the PRIMAVERA project. The biases are the warm eastern tropical oceans, the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the warm Southern Ocean, and the cold North Atlantic. Atmosphere resolution increases from ∼100–200 to ∼25–50 km, and ocean resolution increases from (eddy-parametrized) to (eddy-present). For one model, ocean resolution also reaches ∘ (eddy-rich). The ensemble mean and individual fully coupled general circulation models and their atmosphere-only versions are compared with satellite observations and the ERA5 reanalysis over the period 1980–2014. The four studied biases appear in all the low-resolution coupled models to some extent, although the Southern Ocean warm bias is the least persistent across individual models. In the ensemble mean, increased resolution reduces the surface warm bias and the associated cloud cover and precipitation biases over the eastern tropical oceans, particularly over the tropical South Atlantic. Linked to this and to the improvement in the precipitation distribution over the western tropical Pacific, the double-ITCZ bias is also reduced with increased resolution. The Southern Ocean warm bias increases or remains unchanged at higher resolution, with small reductions in the regional cloud cover and net cloud radiative effect biases. The North Atlantic cold bias is also reduced at higher resolution, albeit at the expense of a new warm bias that emerges in the Labrador Sea related to excessive ocean deep mixing in the region, especially in the ORCA025 ocean model. Overall, the impact of increased resolution on the surface temperature biases is model-dependent in the coupled models. In the atmosphere-only models, increased resolution leads to very modest or no reduction in the studied biases. Thus, both the coupled and atmosphere-only models still show large biases in tropical precipitation and cloud cover, and in midlatitude zonal winds at higher resolutions, with little change in their global biases for temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and net cloud radiative effect. Our analysis finds no clear reductions in the studied biases due to the increase in atmosphere resolution up to 25–50 km, in ocean resolution up to 0.25∘, or in both. Our study thus adds to evidence that further improved model physics, tuning, and even finer resolutions might be necessary

Arrhythmic risk stratification in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is a heritable cardiomyopathy characterized by a predominantly arrhythmic presentation. It represents the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) among athletes and poses a significant morbidity threat in the general population. As a causative treatment for ARVC is still not available, the placement of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator represents the current cornerstone for SCD prevention in this setting. Thanks to international ARVC-dedicated efforts, significant steps have been achieved in recent years towards an individualized, patient-centred risk stratification approach. A novel risk calculator algorithm estimating the 5-year risk of arrhythmias of patients with ARVC has been introduced in clinical practice and subsequently validated. The purpose of this article is to summarize the body of evidence that has allowed the development of this tool and to discuss the best way to implement its use in the care of an individual patient

Arrhythmic Risk Stratification in Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy

Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is an heritable cardiomyopathy characterized by a predominantly arrhythmic presentation. It represents the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) among athletes and poses a significant morbidity treat in the general population. As a causative treatment for ARVC is still not available, the placement of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) represent the current cornerstone for SCD prevention in this setting. Thanks to international ARVC-dedicated efforts, significant steps have been achieved in recent years towards an individualized, patient-centered risk stratification approach. A novel risk calculator algorithm estimating the 5 year risk of arrhythmias of patients with ARVC have been introduced in clinical practice and subsequently validated. The purpose of this article is to summarize the body of evidence that has allowed the development of this tool and to discuss the best way to implement its use in the care of an individual patient

Net primary production annual maxima in the North Atlantic projected to shift in the 21st century

Shifts in the day of peak net primary production (NPP) were detected in different biogeochemical provinces of the North Atlantic (25–65° N). Most provinces displayed a shift toward earlier peak NPP, with the largest change points in the 21st century and in the northern parts of the domain. Furthermore, the occurrences of the first day with a mixed-layer depth (MLD) shallower than 40 m and the day of peak NPP are positively correlated over most of the domain. As was the case for the day of peak NPP, the largest change points for the day of MLD shallower than 40 m occur around or after the year 2000. Daily output from two fully coupled CMIP6 Earth system models, EC-Earth3-CC and NorESM2-LM, for the period 1750–2100 and under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, were used for the analysis. The ESM NPP data were compared with estimates derived from Carbon, Absorption and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) satellite-based data. The ESMs showed significant differences from the CAFE model, though the timing of peak NPP was well captured for most provinces. The largest change points in the day of peak NPP occur earlier in EC-Earth3-CC than in NorESM2-LM. Although SSP5-8.5 is a scenario with very high warming, EC-Earth3-CC generates change points for most provinces in the early part of the 21st century, before the warming has deviated far from lower-emissions scenarios. NorESM2-LM displays the largest change points centered around the mid 21st century, with two out of eight provinces displaying the largest change point before the year 2050. The early timing of the detected shifts in some provinces in both ESMs suggests that similar shifts could already have been initiated or could start in the near future. This highlights the need for long-term monitoring campaigns in the North Atlantic.</p

Monitoring of Manufacturing Changes and Formulation Excipients on Solid Oral Dosage Forms of Furosemide Using Chemometrics and Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS)

Peer reviewed: NoNRC publication: Ye

Oscillatory surface rheotaxis of swimming E. coli bacteria

Bacterial contamination of biological conducts, catheters or water resources is a major threat to public health and can be amplified by the ability of bacteria to swim upstream. The mechanisms of this rheotaxis, the reorientation with respect to flow gradients, often in complex and confined environments, are still poorly understood. Here, we follow individual E. coli bacteria swimming at surfaces under shear flow with two complementary experimental assays, based on 3D Lagrangian tracking and fluorescent flagellar labelling and we develop a theoretical model for their rheotactic motion. Three transitions are identified with increasing shear rate: Above a first critical shear rate, bacteria shift to swimming upstream. After a second threshold, we report the discovery of an oscillatory rheotaxis. Beyond a third transition, we further observe coexistence of rheotaxis along the positive and negative vorticity directions. A full theoretical analysis explains these regimes and predicts the corresponding critical shear rates. The predicted transitions as well as the oscillation dynamics are in good agreement with experimental observations. Our results shed new light on bacterial transport and reveal new strategies for contamination prevention.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figure

Diagnosing arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy by 2010 Task Force Criteria: clinical performance and simplified practical implementation

AIMS: Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy (ARVC) is diagnosed by a complex set of clinical tests as per 2010 Task Force Criteria (TFC). Avoiding misdiagnosis is crucial to prevent sudden cardiac death as well as unnecessary implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantations. This study aims to validate the overall performance of the TFC in a real-world cohort of patients referred for ARVC evaluation. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included patients consecutively referred to our centres for ARVC evaluation. Patients were diagnosed by consensus of three independent clinical experts. Using this as a reference standard, diagnostic performance was measured for each individual criterion as well as the overall TFC classification. Of 407 evaluated patients (age 38 ± 17 years, 51% male), the expert panel diagnosed 66 (16%) with ARVC. The clinically observed TFC was false negative in 7/66 (11%) patients and false positive in 10/69 (14%) patients. Idiopathic outflow tract ventricular tachycardia was the most common alternative diagnosis. While the TFC performed well overall (sensitivity and specificity 92%), signal-averaged electrocardiogram (SAECG, P = 0.43), and several family history criteria (P ≥ 0.17) failed to discriminate. Eliminating these criteria reduced false positives without increasing false negatives (net reclassification improvement 4.3%, P = 0.019). Furthermore, all ARVC patients met at least one electrocardiogram (ECG) or arrhythmia criterion (sensitivity 100%). CONCLUSION: The TFC perform well but are complex and can lead to misdiagnosis. Simplification by eliminating SAECG and several family history criteria improves diagnostic accuracy. Arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy can be ruled out using ECG and arrhythmia criteria alone, hence these tests may serve as a first-line screening strategy among at-risk individuals