An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market

This paper examines the effect that heterogeneous customer orders flows have on exchange rates by using a new, and the largest, proprietary dataset of weekly net order flow segmented by customer type across nine of the most liquid currency pairs. We make several contributions. Firstly, we investigate the extent to which customer order flow can help to explain exchange rate movements over and above the influence of macro-economic variables. Secondly, we address the issue of whether order flows contain (private) information which explain exchange rates changes. Thirdly, we look at the usefulness of order flow in forecasting exchange rate movements at longer horizons than those generally considered in the micro-structure literature. Finally we address the question of whether the out-of-sample exchange rate forecasts generated by order flows can be employed profitably in the foreign exchange markets

Plasma proteomic signature predicts myeloid neoplasm risk

PURPOSE: Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) is thought to be the origin of myeloid neoplasms (MN). Yet, our understanding of the mechanisms driving CH progression to MN and clinical risk prediction of MN remains limited. The human proteome reflects complex interactions between genetic and epigenetic regulation of biological systems. We hypothesized that the plasma proteome might predict MN risk and inform our understanding of the mechanisms promoting MN development. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: We jointly characterized CH and plasma proteomic profiles of 46,237 individuals in the UK Biobank at baseline study entry. During 500,036 person-years of follow-up, 115 individuals developed MN. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to test for an association between plasma protein levels and MN risk. RESULTS: We identified 115 proteins associated with MN risk, of which 30% (N = 34) were also associated with CH. These were enriched for known regulators of the innate and adaptive immune system. Plasma proteomics improved the prediction of MN risk (AUC = 0.85; P = 5×10-9) beyond clinical factors and CH (AUC = 0.80). In an independent group (N = 381,485), we used inherited polygenic risk scores (PRS) for plasma protein levels to validate the relevance of these proteins toMNdevelopment. PRS analyses suggest that most MN-associated proteins we identified are not directly causally linked toMN risk, but rather represent downstream markers of pathways regulating the progression of CH to MN. CONCLUSIONS: These data highlight the role of immune cell regulation in the progression of CH to MN and the promise of leveraging multi-omic characterization of CH to improveMN risk stratification. See related commentary by Bhalgat and Taylor, p. 3095

Specificity and Actions of an Arylaspartate Inhibitor of Glutamate Transport at the Schaffer Collateral-CA1 Pyramidal Cell Synapse

In this study we characterized the pharmacological selectivity and physiological actions of a new arylaspartate glutamate transporter blocker, L-threo-ß-benzylaspartate (L-TBA). At concentrations up to 100 µM, L-TBA did not act as an AMPA receptor (AMPAR) or NMDA receptor (NMDAR) agonist or antagonist when applied to outside-out patches from mouse hippocampal CA1 pyramidal neurons. L-TBA had no effect on the amplitude of field excitatory postsynaptic potentials (fEPSPs) recorded at the Schaffer collateral-CA1 pyramidal cell synapse. Excitatory postsynaptic currents (EPSCs) in CA1 pyramidal neurons were unaffected by L-TBA in the presence of physiological extracellular Mg2+ concentrations, but in Mg2+-free solution, EPSCs were significantly prolonged as a consequence of increased NMDAR activity. Although L-TBA exhibited approximately four-fold selectivity for neuronal EAAT3 over glial EAAT1/EAAT2 transporter subtypes expressed in Xenopus oocytes, the L-TBA concentration-dependence of the EPSC charge transfer increase in the absence of Mg2+ was the same in hippocampal slices from EAAT3 +/+ and EAAT3 −/− mice, suggesting that TBA effects were primarily due to block of glial transporters. Consistent with this, L-TBA blocked synaptically evoked transporter currents in CA1 astrocytes with a potency in accord with its block of heterologously expressed glial transporters. Extracellular recording in the presence of physiological Mg2+ revealed that L-TBA prolonged fEPSPs in a frequency-dependent manner by selectively increasing the NMDAR-mediated component of the fEPSP during short bursts of activity. The data indicate that glial glutamate transporters play a dominant role in limiting extrasynaptic transmitter diffusion and binding to NMDARs. Furthermore, NMDAR signaling is primarily limited by voltage-dependent Mg2+ block during low-frequency activity, while the relative contribution of transport increases during short bursts of higher frequency signaling

Spurious long memory, uncommon breaks and the implied–realized volatility puzzle

One of the puzzles in international finance is the frequent finding that implied volatility is a biased predictor of realized volatility. However, given asset price volatility is often characterized as possessing long memory, the recent literature has shown that allowing for long-range dependence removes this bias. Of course, the appearance of long memory can be generated by the presence of structural breaks. This paper discusses the effect of structural breaks on the implied-realized volatility relation. Simulations show that if significant structural breaks are omitted, testing can spuriously show the typical patterns of fractional cointegration found in the literature. Next, empirical results show that foreign exchange implied and realized volatility contains structural breaks. The breaks in the implied series never closely anticipate or co-occur with those of the realized series, suggesting that the market has no ability to forecast structural change. When breaks are accounted for in the bi-variate framework, the point estimate of the slope parameter falls and the null of unbiasedness can be rejected. Allowing for structural breaks suggests that the implied-realized volatility puzzle might not be solved after all

EXD2 Protects Stressed Replication Forks and Is Required for Cell Viability in the Absence of BRCA1/2.

Accurate DNA replication is essential to preserve genomic integrity and prevent chromosomal instability-associated diseases including cancer. Key to this process is the cells' ability to stabilize and restart stalled replication forks. Here, we show that the EXD2 nuclease is essential to this process. EXD2 recruitment to stressed forks suppresses their degradation by restraining excessive fork regression. Accordingly, EXD2 deficiency leads to fork collapse, hypersensitivity to replication inhibitors, and genomic instability. Impeding fork regression by inactivation of SMARCAL1 or removal of RECQ1's inhibition in EXD2-/- cells restores efficient fork restart and genome stability. Moreover, purified EXD2 efficiently processes substrates mimicking regressed forks. Thus, this work identifies a mechanism underpinned by EXD2's nuclease activity, by which cells balance fork regression with fork restoration to maintain genome stability. Interestingly, from a clinical perspective, we discover that EXD2's depletion is synthetic lethal with mutations in BRCA1/2, implying a non-redundant role in replication fork protection.Work in W.N.’s laboratory is funded by ICR Intramural Grant and Cancer Research UK Programme (A24881). R.A.S. and L.S. were supported by WIMM Senior Non-Clinical Fellowship awarded to W.N. M.M.S. and M.A.B. were supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH, National Institute on Aging, United States (Z01-AG000746-08). Work in S.G.’s laboratory is supported by BRFAA Intramural Funds. V.C. was supported by John S. Latsis Public Benefit Foundation and Alexander S. Onassis Public Benefit Foundation. Work in the P.P.’s laboratory is supported by grants from the Agence Nationale pour la Recherche (ANR), the Ligue Contre le Cancer (équipe labellisée), SIRIC Montpellier Cancer (INCa Inserm DGOS 12553), and the MSDAvenir fund

Expression profiles of switch-like genes accurately classify tissue and infectious disease phenotypes in model-based classification

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Large-scale compilation of gene expression microarray datasets across diverse biological phenotypes provided a means of gathering a priori knowledge in the form of identification and annotation of bimodal genes in the human and mouse genomes. These switch-like genes consist of 15% of known human genes, and are enriched with genes coding for extracellular and membrane proteins. It is of interest to determine the prediction potential of bimodal genes for class discovery in large-scale datasets.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Use of a model-based clustering algorithm accurately classified more than 400 microarray samples into 19 different tissue types on the basis of bimodal gene expression. Bimodal expression patterns were also highly effective in differentiating between infectious diseases in model-based clustering of microarray data. Supervised classification with feature selection restricted to switch-like genes also recognized tissue specific and infectious disease specific signatures in independent test datasets reserved for validation. Determination of "on" and "off" states of switch-like genes in various tissues and diseases allowed for the identification of activated/deactivated pathways. Activated switch-like genes in neural, skeletal muscle and cardiac muscle tissue tend to have tissue-specific roles. A majority of activated genes in infectious disease are involved in processes related to the immune response.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Switch-like bimodal gene sets capture genome-wide signatures from microarray data in health and infectious disease. A subset of bimodal genes coding for extracellular and membrane proteins are associated with tissue specificity, indicating a potential role for them as biomarkers provided that expression is altered in the onset of disease. Furthermore, we provide evidence that bimodal genes are involved in temporally and spatially active mechanisms including tissue-specific functions and response of the immune system to invading pathogens.</p

The Adaptor Molecule Nck Localizes the WAVE Complex to Promote Actin Polymerization during CEACAM3-Mediated Phagocytosis of Bacteria

Background: CEACAM3 is a granulocyte receptor mediating the opsonin-independent recognition and phagocytosis of human-restricted CEACAM-binding bacteria. CEACAM3 function depends on an intracellular immunoreceptor tyrosine-based activation motif (ITAM)-like sequence that is tyrosine phosphorylated by Src family kinases upon receptor engagement. The phosphorylated ITAM-like sequence triggers GTP-loading of Rac by directly associating with the guanine nucleotide exchange factor (GEF) Vav. Rac stimulation in turn is critical for actin cytoskeleton rearrangements that generate lamellipodial protrusions and lead to bacterial uptake. Principal Findings: In our present study we provide biochemical and microscopic evidence that the adaptor proteins Nck1 and Nck2, but not CrkL, Grb2 or SLP-76, bind to tyrosine phosphorylated CEACAM3. The association is phosphorylation-dependent and requires the Nck SH2 domain. Overexpression of the isolated Nck1 SH2 domain, RNAi-mediated knock-down of Nck1, or genetic deletion of Nck1 and Nck2 interfere with CEACAM3-mediated bacterial internalization and with the formation of lamellipodial protrusions. Nck is constitutively associated with WAVE2 and directs the actin nucleation promoting WAVE complex to tyrosine phosphorylated CEACAM3. In turn, dominant-negative WAVE2 as well as shRNA-mediated knock-down of WAVE2 or the WAVE-complex component Nap1 reduce internalization of bacteria. Conclusions: Our results provide novel mechanistic insight into CEACAM3-initiated phagocytosis. We suggest that the CEACAM3 ITAM-like sequence is optimized to co-ordinate a minimal set of cellular factors needed to efficiently trigger actin-based lamellipodial protrusions and rapid pathogen engulfment

Coevolution of activating and inhibitory receptors within mammalian carcinoembryonic antigen families

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most rapidly evolving gene families are involved in immune responses and reproduction, two biological functions which have been assigned to the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) gene family. To gain insights into evolutionary forces shaping the CEA gene family we have analysed this gene family in 27 mammalian species including monotreme and marsupial lineages.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Phylogenetic analysis provided convincing evidence that the primordial CEA gene family in mammals consisted of five genes, including the immune inhibitory receptor-encoding <it>CEACAM1 </it>(CEA-related cell adhesion molecule) ancestor. Our analysis of the substitution rates within the nucleotide sequence which codes for the ligand binding domain of CEACAM1 indicates that the selection for diversification is, perhaps, a consequence of the exploitation of CEACAM1 by a variety of viral and bacterial pathogens as their cellular receptor. Depending on the extent of the amplification of an ancestral <it>CEACAM1</it>, the number of <it>CEACAM1</it>-related genes varies considerably between mammalian species from less than five in lagomorphs to more than 100 in bats. In most analysed species, ITAM (immunoreceptor tyrosine-based activation motifs) or ITAM-like motif-containing proteins exist which contain Ig-V-like, ligand binding domains closely related to that of CEACAM1. Human CEACAM3 is one such protein which can function as a CEACAM1 decoy receptor in granulocytes by mediating the uptake and destruction of specific bacterial pathogens via its ITAM-like motif. The close relationship between <it>CEACAM1 </it>and its ITAM-encoding relatives appears to be maintained by gene conversion and reciprocal recombination. Surprisingly, secreted CEACAMs resembling immunomodulatory CEACAM1-related trophoblast-specific pregnancy-specific glycoproteins (PSGs) found in humans and rodents evolved only in a limited set of mammals. The appearance of <it>PSG</it>-like genes correlates with invasive trophoblast growth in these species.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These phylogenetic studies provide evidence that pathogen/host coevolution and a possible participation in fetal-maternal conflict processes led to a highly species-specific diversity of mammalian CEA gene families.</p

Simulation of Postsynaptic Glutamate Receptors Reveals Critical Features of Glutamatergic Transmission

Activation of several subtypes of glutamate receptors contributes to changes in postsynaptic calcium concentration at hippocampal synapses, resulting in various types of changes in synaptic strength. Thus, while activation of NMDA receptors has been shown to be critical for long-term potentiation (LTP) and long term depression (LTD) of synaptic transmission, activation of metabotropic glutamate receptors (mGluRs) has been linked to either LTP or LTD. While it is generally admitted that dynamic changes in postsynaptic calcium concentration represent the critical elements to determine the direction and amplitude of the changes in synaptic strength, it has been difficult to quantitatively estimate the relative contribution of the different types of glutamate receptors to these changes under different experimental conditions. Here we present a detailed model of a postsynaptic glutamatergic synapse that incorporates ionotropic and mGluR type I receptors, and we use this model to determine the role of the different receptors to the dynamics of postsynaptic calcium with different patterns of presynaptic activation. Our modeling framework includes glutamate vesicular release and diffusion in the cleft and a glutamate transporter that modulates extracellular glutamate concentration. Our results indicate that the contribution of mGluRs to changes in postsynaptic calcium concentration is minimal under basal stimulation conditions and becomes apparent only at high frequency of stimulation. Furthermore, the location of mGluRs in the postsynaptic membrane is also a critical factor, as activation of distant receptors contributes significantly less to calcium dynamics than more centrally located ones. These results confirm the important role of glutamate transporters and of the localization of mGluRs in postsynaptic sites in their signaling properties, and further strengthen the notion that mGluR activation significantly contributes to postsynaptic calcium dynamics only following high-frequency stimulation. They also provide a new tool to analyze the interactions between metabotropic and ionotropic glutamate receptors