Hydrological aspects of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme: finding from field experiments and simulations

Proc. International Conference on Alpine Metorology, Zagreb 23-27 Ma

Multivariate statistical analysis of flood variables by copulas: two italian case studies

Multivariate statistics are important to determine the flood hydrograph for the design of hydraulic structures and for the hydraulic risk assessment. In the last decade, the copula approach has been investigated in hydrological practice to assess the design flood hydrograph in terms of flood peak, volume and duration. In this paper, the copula approach is exploited to perform pair analyses of these three random variables for two Italian watersheds, in the Apennine and the Alps respectively. The criterion to separate continuous flow series into independent events is discussed along with its implications on the dependence structure. The goodness-of-fits of the proposed copulas are then assessed by non-parametric tests. Marginal distributions to derive joint distributions are briefly suggested. The possibility of generating flood events according to the proposed model and potential applications to hydraulic structure design and flood management are finally examined

Estimate of turbulent fluxes with eddy-covariance technique in a complex topography: A case study in the Italian Alps

A sensitivity analysis to different eddy—covariance data processing algorithms is presented for a dataset collected in an Alpine environment with complex topography. In Summer 2012 a micrometeorological station was installed at Cividate Camuno (274 m a.s.l., Oglio river basin, Central Italian Alps), in a flat and rectangular grass-covered lawn. The grass was 0.6 m tall during most of the field campaign. The station is equipped with traditional devices, four multiplexed TDR probes, and an eddy--covariance apparatus sampling at 20 Hz (Gill WindMaster Sonic Anemometer and Licor Li7500 Gas Analyzer), at about 3 m above the ground. The local winds regime is strongly affected by the morphology of the valley, and the topography is complex also due to the heterogeneity of the surrounding-areas land—cover. Using EddyPro software, the sensitivity of the turbulent fluxes estimate was assessed addressing three major issues of the data processing procedure, i.e. the choice of the computational averaging period, of the axis rotation method and of the data detrending criterion. Once identified three test periods of consecutive days without rainfall, the fluxes of momentum, sensible heat and latent heat were computed at the averaging period of 30, 60 and 120 min respectively. At each averaging period, both the triple rotation method, the double rotation method and the planar fit method were applied. Particularly the latter was applied both fitting a unique plane for all the wind directions and fitting multiple planes, one for each sector of the wind rose. Regarding the detrending criteria, data were processed with a block average and a linear detrend, the latter with time constant of 5, 30, 60 and 120 min respectively. Therefore, for each test period about 50 estimates of the fluxes were provided. As a result the obtained fluxes were compared. Even if with different flux quality, their pattern is quite stable with regard to the applied estimate procedures, but with sensitively different average values

Non-linear analysis of two-layer timber beams considering interlayer slip and uplift

A new mathematical model and its finite element formulation for the non-linear analysis of mechanical behaviour of a two-layer timber planar beam is presented. A modified principle of virtual work is employed in formulating the finite element method. The basic unknowns are strains. The following assumptions are adopted in the mathematical model: materials are taken to be non-linear and can differ from layer to layer; interacting shear and normal contact tractions between layers are derived from the non-linear shear contact traction-slip and the non-linear normal contact traction-uplift characteristics of the connectors; the geometrically linear and materially non-linear Bernoulli's beam theory is assumed for each layer. The formulation is found to be accurate, reliable and computationally effective. The suitability of the theory is validated by the comparison of the numerical solution and the experimental results of full-scale laboratory tests on a simply supported beam. An excellent agreement between measured and calculated results is observed for all load levels. The further objective of the paper is the analysis of the effect of different normal contact traction-uplift constitutive relationships on the kinematic and static quantities in a statically determined and undetermined structure. While the shear contact traction-slip constitutive relationship dictates the deformability of the composite beam and has a substantial influence on most of the static and kinematic quantities of the composite beam, a variable normal contact traction-uplift constitutive relationship is in most cases negligible

A multi-century meteo-hydrological analysis for the Adda river basin (Central Alps). Part I: Gridded monthly precipitation (1800–2016) records

The 1800–2016 monthly precipitation record for the upper Adda river basin is presented. It is computed by applying the anomaly method to a quality-checked and homogenized observation database. The reconstruction accuracy and its evolution over the study period is evaluated at both station and grid-cell levels. The anomaly-based interpolation provides rather robust estimates even for the early years of sparse station coverage with basin precipitation reconstruction errors around 10%. The Theil-Sen trend analysis on the basin precipitation series shows significant (Mann-Kendall p value <.05) long-term tendencies of −3.8 ± 1.9% and −9.3 ± 3.8% century−1 for annual and autumn precipitation, respectively, even though the annual trend is not significant by excluding the first decades from the evaluation. As the basin precipitation record is expected to be underestimated due to the rain-gauge snow undercatch, the monthly precipitation fields are subjected to a correction procedure which allows to derive the multiplicative correcting constant to be applied to the basin annual precipitation series. The comparison between 1845 and 2016 yearly corrected precipitation and runoff records highlights current annual water losses of about 400 mm while the annual runoff coefficients exhibit a long-term significant decrease of −6.4 ± 1.0% century−1. This change in the hydrological cycle is mostly to be ascribed to the strong long-term reduction in annual runoff values (−11.8 ± 3.2% century−1) driven by increasing evapotranspiration due to both temperature increase and, likely, land-use changes

Locking-free two-layer Timoshenko beam element with interlayer slip

A new locking-free strain-based finite element formulation for the numerical treatment of linear static analysis of two-layer planar composite beams with interlayer slip is proposed. In this formulation, the modified principle of virtual work is introduced as a basis for the finite element discretization. The linear kinematic equations are included into the principle by the procedure, similar to that of Lagrangian multipliers. A strain field vector remains the only unknown function to be interpolated in the finite element implementation of the principle. In contrast with some of the displacement-based and mixed finite element formulations of the composite beams with interlayer slip, the present formulation is completely locking-free. Hence, there are no shear and slip locking, poor convergence and stress oscillations in these finite elements. The generalization of the composite beam theory with the consideration of the Timoshenko beam theory for the individual component of a composite beam represents a substantial contribution in the field of analysis of non-slender composite beams with an interlayer slip. An extension of the present formulation to the non-linear material problems is straightforward. As only a few finite elements are needed to describe a composite beam with great precision, the new finite element formulations is perfectly suited for practical calculations. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Failure Probability Analysis of Levees Affected by Mammal Bioerosion

Mammal bioerosion is an emergent threat to the functionality of levees. In the present paper, the problem of assessing the failure probability of levees affected by mammal bioerosion is addressed. A fully bivariate description of peak flow discharge and flood duration is combined with a deterministic unsteady seepage flow model to obtain a suitable model of variably disturbed levee response to the observed natural variability of floods. Monte Carlo analysis is also implemented to evaluate the epistemic uncertainty connected to the description of the river system. The obtained model is tested with respect to a real-world levee located along the Secchia River in northern Italy, which underwent a disastrous failure caused by mammal bioerosion in 2014. The convex linear combination of two Archimedean copulas is found to fit the empirical dependence structure between peak flow discharge and flood duration. The reliability of the unsteady seepage flow model is tested against detailed numerical simulations of the seepage occurring through the levee body. A limit state function is obtained by comparing the maximum extent of the seepage front to the distance between the den end and the riverside levee slope, and the corresponding levee safety and failure regions are delimited. Results obtained from the developed model reveal a significant impact of mammal dens located near the levee crest in terms of failure probability and related return period. This impact is consistent with failures observed in the study area

Uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the Alps: different views and impacts from MAP D-PHASE

D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project of theWorldWeather Research Programme (WWRP) related to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). Its goal was to demonstrate the reliability and quality of operational forecasting of orographically influenced (determined) precipitation in the Alps and its consequences on the distribution of run-off characteristics. A special focus was, of course, on heavy-precipitation events. The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) ran from June to November 2007, during which an end-to-end forecasting system was operated covering many individual catchments in the Alps, with their water authorities, civil protection organizations or other end users. The forecasting system’s core piece was a Visualization Platform where precipitation and flood warnings from some 30 atmospheric and 7 hydrological models (both deterministic and probabilistic) and corresponding model fields were displayed in uniform and comparable formats. Also, meteograms, nowcasting information and end user communication was made available to all the forecasters, users and end users. D-PHASE information was assessed and used by some 50 different groups ranging from atmospheric forecasters to civil protection authorities or water management bodies. In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented along with its outstanding scientific results and, in particular, the lessons learnt with respect to uncertainty propagation. A focus is thereby on the transfer of ensemble prediction information into the hydrological community and its use with respect to other aspects of societal impact. Objective verification of forecast quality is contrasted to subjective quality assessments during the project (end user workshops, questionnaires) and some general conclusions concerning forecast demonstration projects are drawn

GLIMS-IT: contributo italiano al progetto GLIMS di monitoraggio satellitare dei ghiacciai del globo

Si illustra lo stato di avanzamento del contributo italiano al progetto GLIMS-Global Land Ice Measurements from Space che consiste nella redazione di un Atlante satellitare dei ghiacciai italiani. Dall'analisi di cinque immagini rilevate dal sensore ASTER installato sul satellite TERRA sono stati delineati i limiti dei ghiacciai nei gruppi montuosi delle Alpi Lepontine, Pusteresi, delle Dolomiti venete, del versante trentino del Cevedale e dell'Adamello-Presanella. Dal punto di vista metodologico si sono sfruttate, tra l'altro, le informazioni desumibili dai canali spettrali dell'infrarosso termico per il riconoscimento di alcuni ghiacciai coperti da detrito e, una volta delineata l'estensione del ghiacciaio, i parametri geomorfologici vengono estratti in modo automatico con un codice di calcolo che implementa i requisiti del progetto GLIMS. I risultati delle elaborazioni sono stati trasmessi al data base gestito dal National Snow and Ice Data Center ed al Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, che collabora all'iniziativa per l'aggiornamento del catasto dei ghiacciai italiani. Le informazioni per i gruppi montuosi del Cevedale e dell'Adamello-Presanella sono state organizzate in un sistema informativo territoriale in formato KML. Mediamente, nelle aree sinora investigate, è stata rilevata una diminuzione dell'estensione dei ghiacciai, dagli anni '80 al 2007, compresa tra il 34% ed il 50%, una marcata frammentazione di diversi ghiacciai e la scomparsa di alcune unità glaciologiche, confermando l'accelerazione del ritiro iniziato al termine della Piccola Età Glaciale. Si presentano i risultati dell'elaborazione di un'immagine del gruppo dell'Adamello-Presanella la cui estensione dei ghiacciai si è ridotta del 36% dagli anni '80 al 2007