Tree migration-rates : narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates

Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60–260 m yr–1) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115–550 m yr–1), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia

Climate change and health and social care: Defining future hazard, vulnerability and risk for infrastructure systems supporting older people’s health care in England

Health and social care systems (including the care needs of the population and infrastructures providing health and social care) are likely to be influenced by climate change, in particular by the increasing frequency and severity of weather-related hazards such as floods and heatwaves. Coldwaves will also continue to be challenging in the foreseeable future. Protecting people’s health and wellbeing from the impacts of climate change is especially important for older people, as they are particularly vulnerable to climate-related hazards. In addition, the proportion of people aged 65 and over is projected to increase significantly. This paper addresses these issues through a discussion of our work to map variations across England in future hazards, vulnerability and risk. We explain how this mapping has been used to identify areas of the country where the built infrastructure serving the older age group might be most severely impacted by climate-related events over the next 20–30 years and where planning for adaptation and resilience is most urgently required. Based on a review of research on the links between extreme weather events and their impacts on older people’s health and the care services on which they depend, we developed operational definitions of extreme weather-related hazards likely to place particular pressure on health and social care systems that are essential for older people’s health and wellbeing. We consider ways to relate these to the latest climate projections for the 2030s from the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCP09); river and coastal flooding projections for the 2050s from the 2004 UK Government’s Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project (Environment Agency, 2004); and demographic projections for 2031 produced by the Office for National Statistics, UK. The research highlights the complexity of undertaking future hazard and vulnerability assessments. Key challenges include: how to define future hazards associated with climate change; how to predict and interpret future socio-demographic conditions contributing to vulnerability; and how geographical variability in hazards and vulnerabilities may combine to produce risks at the local level. In contrast to a number of more local studies which have focused on the vulnerability of urban populations to the impact of climate change (particularly heatwaves), the findings highlight the potential vulnerability of older populations in more rural regions (often in coastal areas) to a range of extreme weather-related hazards in both the North and South of England

Parallel declines in pollinators and insect-pollinated plants in Britain and the Netherlands

Despite widespread concern about declines in pollination services, little is known about the patterns of change in most pollinator assemblages. By studying bee and hoverfly assemblages in Britain and the Netherlands, we found evidence of declines (pre-versus post-1980) in local bee diversity in both countries; however, divergent trends were observed in hoverflies. Depending on the assemblage and location, pollinator declines were most frequent in habitat and flower specialists, in univoltine species, and/or in nonmigrants. In conjunction with this evidence, outcrossing plant species that are reliant on the declining pollinators have themselves declined relative to other plant species. Taken together, these findings strongly suggest a causal connection between local extinctions of functionally linked plant and pollinator species

Simulation and optimization of ant colony optimization algorithm for the stochastic uncapacitated location-allocation problem

This study proposes a novel methodology towards using ant colony optimization (ACO) with stochastic demand. In particular, an optimization-simulation-optimization approach is used to solve the Stochastic uncapacitated location-allocation problem with an unknown number of facilities, and an objective of minimizing the fixed and transportation costs. ACO is modeled using discrete event simulation to capture the randomness of customers' demand, and its objective is to optimize the costs. On the other hand, the simulated ACO's parameters are also optimized to guarantee superior solutions. This approach's performance is evaluated by comparing its solutions to the ones obtained using deterministic data. The results show that simulation was able to identify better facility allocations where the deterministic solutions would have been inadequate due to the real randomness of customers' demands.PublishedN/

Multiple Dimensions of Climate Change and Their Implications for Biodiversity

The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.Peer Reviewe

An integrated analysis of 33 Eucalyptus trials linking the onset of competition-induced tree growth suppression with management, physiographic and climatic factors

One of the greatest difficulties associated with controlling competitive vegetation during the establishment of eucalypts relates to the timing and planning of `weeding' operations. This may be due to site related variability in vegetation species distribution and abundance, climatic conditions and methods of site preparation. Using data from 33 eucalypt vegetation management trials, multivariate statistical techniques were used to determine whether any climatic, physiographic or management related variables could be related to the time taken for competition-induced tree growth suppression to occur. Altitude, the method of site preparation (burning versus not burning) and the interaction between these two factors were significantly related to the timing of tree growth suppression. Regardless of the method of site preparation, the onset of competition-induced tree growth suppression occurred earlier at lower altitudes, where the vegetation was more diverse and vigorous. At higher altitudes, burning appears to stimulate the earlier growth of vegetation, reducing the time for competition-induced tree growth suppression to occur.Une analyse intégrée de 33 essais avec des eucalyptus reliant le début de la baisse de croissance due à la compétition avec la gestion des peuplements, les facteurs physiographiques et climatiques. Une des grandes difficultés pour obtenir un contrôle de la végétation concurrentielle pendant l'installation de plantations d'eucalyptus est liée à la planification des opérations de désherbage. La difficulté provient de la variabilité de distribution et d'abondance des espèces qui constituent la végétation, des conditions climatiques et des méthodes de préparation du terrain. Des données de 33 essais de gestion de la végétation concurrente en plantation d'Eucalyptus ont été analysées avec des techniques statistiques multivariées pour identifier les variables climatiques, physiographiques ou de gestion susceptibles d'influencer l'apparition du ralentissement de croissance par la compétition herbacée. L'altitude, la méthode de préparation du terrain (brûlis ou non brûlis) et l'interaction entre ces deux facteurs ont eu un effet significatif sur ce ralentissement. Indépendamment de la méthode de préparation du terrain, le ralentissement de croissance se produisait plus précocement à basse altitude, là où la végétation était plus variée et plus vigoureuse. À plus haute altitude, le brûlis semble stimuler une croissance plus précoce de la végétation herbacée, en favorisant ainsi le ralentissement de la croissance des arbres