The impact of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies on the low-carbon transition

There is growing consensus on the fact that fossil fuel subsidies provided by governments in high-income countries represent a misalignment on emissions\u2019 reduction with the global climate agenda. In addition, a discussion emerged on the negative socio-economic and environmental externalities associated with fossil fuel subsidies. Nevertheless, pathways for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies in high income countries and their implications on the low-carbon transition have not yet been assessed. With the aim to narrow this knowledge gap, we extend the EIRIN Stock-Flow Consistent behavioral model to study the implications on sustainable development of the gradual phasing out of fossil fuels subsidies, whose revenues could be used by the government to subsidize energy investments in green capital (e.g. solar panels), either via fiscal policies or green bonds. We assess the effects on green growth, employment, credit and bonds market, as well as the distributive effects across heterogeneous households and sectors. A smooth phasing out of fossil fuels subsidies contributes to improve macroeconomic performance, to decrease inequality and helps the government to find fiscal space to support stable renewable energy policies. Renewable energy subsidies contribute to foster the low-carbon transition but could imply distributive effects, depending on the way in which they are implemented

Compounding COVID-19 and climate risks: The interplay of banks’ lending and government's policy in the shock recovery

We assess the individual and compounding impacts of COVID-19 and climate physical risks in the economy and finance, using the EIRIN Stock-Flow Consistent model. We study the interplay between banks’ lending decisions and government's policy effectiveness in the economic recovery process. We calibrate EIRIN on Mexico, being a country highly exposed to COVID-19 and hurricanes risks. By embedding financial actors and the credit market, and by endogenising investors’ expectations, EIRIN analyses the finance-economy feedbacks, providing an accurate assessment of risks and policy co-benefits. We quantify the impacts of compounding COVID-19 and hurricanes on GDP through time using a compound risk indicator. We find that procyclical lending and credit market constraints amplify the initial shocks by limiting firms’ recovery investments, thus mining the effectiveness of higher government spending. When COVID-19 and hurricanes compound, non-linear dynamics that amplify losses emerge, negatively affecting the economic recovery, banks’ financial stability and public debt sustainability

Análisis de incidencia de brucelosis canina en la ciudad de La Punta, San Luis

Este proyecto fue pensado para investigar de manera exploratoria la incidencia de Brucelosis canina, en la ciudad de La Punta entre la Facultad de Cs Veterinarias de la UCCuyo San Luis y la dirección de Salud, Bromatología e Higiene de la ciudad. El epidemiológico nos permite conocer la prevalencia de la enfermedad, la dinámica de la misma, y la relación del agente causal con las especies susceptibles a contraer la enfermedad; además nos permite tomar medidas para la elaboración de planes de control y erradicación.Facultad de Ciencias Veterinaria

Feedbacks and social tipping: A dynamic systems approach to rapid decarbonization

Social tipping points are promising levers for accelerating progress towards net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets. They describe how social, political, economic or technological systems can move rapidly into a new state if cascading positive feedback mechanisms are triggered. Analysing the potential for social tipping requires considering the inherent complexity of social systems and their feedbacks. Here, drawing on insights from an expert elicitation workshop, we outline a dynamic systems approach that entails i) a systems outlook involving interconnected feedback mechanisms alongside cross-system and cross-scale interactions, ii) directed data collection efforts to provide empirical evidence and monitoring of social tipping dynamics, and iii) global, integrated, descriptive modelling to project future dynamics and provide ex-ante evidence for interventions aiming to trigger positive feedback mechanisms. We argue how and why this approach will strengthen the climate policy relevance of research on social tipping

A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping

Social tipping points are promising levers to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets. They describe how social, political, economic or technological systems can move rapidly into a new state if cascading positive feedback mechanisms are triggered. Analysing the potential of social tipping for rapid decarbonization requires considering the inherent complexity of social systems. Here, we identify that existing scientific literature is inclined to a narrative-based account of social tipping, lacks a broad empirical framework and a multi-systems view. We subsequently outline a dynamic systems approach that entails (i) a systems outlook involving interconnected feedback mechanisms alongside cross-system and cross-scale interactions, and including a socioeconomic and environmental injustice perspective (ii) directed data collection efforts to provide empirical evidence for and monitor social tipping dynamics, (iii) global, integrated, descriptive modelling to project future dynamics and provide ex-ante evidence for interventions. Research on social tipping must be accordingly solidified for climate policy relevance

Validation of bioelectrical impedance analysis for body composition assessment in children with obesity aged 8-14y

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim was to generate a predictive equation to assess body composition (BC) in children with obesity using bioimpedance (BIA), and avoid bias produced by different density levels of fat free mass (FFM) in this population. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional validation study using baseline data from a randomized intervention trial to treat childhood obesity. Participants were 8 to 14y (n = 315), underwent assessments on anthropometry and BC through Air Displacement Plethysmography (ADP), Dual X-Ray Absorptiometry and BIA. They were divided into a training (n = 249) and a testing subset (n = 66). In addition, the testing subset underwent a total body water assessment using deuterium dilution, and thus obtained results for the 4-compartment model (4C). A new equation to estimate FFM was created from the BIA outputs by comparison to a validated model of ADP adjusted by FFM density in the training subset. The equation was validated against 4C in the testing subset. As reference, the outputs from the BIA device were also compared to 4C. RESULTS: The predictive equation reduced the bias from the BIA outputs from 14.1% (95%CI: 12.7, 15.4) to 4.6% (95%CI: 3.8, 5.4) for FFM and from 18.4% (95%CI: 16.9, 19.9) to 6.4% (95% CI: 5.3, 7.4) for FM. Bland-Altman plots revealed that the new equation significantly improved the agreement with 4C; furthermore, the observed trend to increase the degree of bias with increasing FM and FFM also disappeared. CONCLUSION: The new predictive equation increases the precision of BC assessment using BIA in children with obesity

Climate change challenges for central banks and financial regulators

The academic and policy debate regarding the role of central banks and financial regulators in addressing climate-related financial risks has rapidly expanded in recent years. This Perspective presents the key controversies and discusses potential research and policy avenues for the future. Developing a comprehensive analytical framework to assess the potential impact of climate change and the low-carbon transition on financial stability seems to be the first crucial challenge. These enhanced risk measures could then be incorporated in setting financial regulations and implementing the policies of central banks

The introduction of solid food and growth in the first 2 y of life in formula-fed children: analysis of data from a European cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early introduction of solid food has been suspected to induce excessive infant energy intake and weight gain. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to test whether introduction of solid foods influences energy intake or growth. DESIGN: Healthy, formula-fed infants who were recruited in 5 European countries were eligible for study participation. Anthropometric measurements were taken at recruitment and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 mo. Time of introduction of solid foods and energy intake were determined by questionnaires and 3-d weighed food records at monthly intervals. Age at introduction of solid food was categorized into 4 groups: 6413 wk, 14-17 wk, 18-21 wk, and 6522 wk. RESULTS: Of 1090 recruited infants, 830 (76%) had data available for age at first introduction of solid food, and 671 (61%) completed the study until 24 mo of age. The median age at introduction of solid food was 19 wk. The time of introduction of solid foods was associated with country, sex, birth weight, parental education and marital status, and maternal smoking. Energy intake was higher in the first 8 mo of life in children with solid-food intake. Solid-food introduction did not predict anthropometric measures at 24 mo. Growth trajectories differed significantly: children with solid-food introduction in the first 12 wk experienced early catch-up growth, whereas those introduced to solid food at >22 wk of age grew more slowly and stayed on lower trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: Solid foods do not simply replace infant formula but increase energy intake. Time of introduction of solid food has little influence on infant growth. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00338689