Lyman-alpha Damping Wing Constraints on Inhomogeneous Reionization

One well-known way to constrain the hydrogen neutral fraction, x_H, of the high-redshift intergalactic medium (IGM) is through the shape of the red damping wing of the Lya absorption line. We examine this method's effectiveness in light of recent models showing that the IGM neutral fraction is highly inhomogeneous on large scales during reionization. Using both analytic models and "semi-numeric" simulations, we show that the "picket-fence" absorption typical in reionization models introduces both scatter and a systematic bias to the measurement of x_H. In particular, we show that simple fits to the damping wing tend to overestimate the true neutral fraction in a partially ionized universe, with a fractional error of ~ 30% near the middle of reionization. This bias is generic to any inhomogeneous model. However, the bias is reduced and can even underestimate x_H if the observational sample only probes a subset of the entire halo population, such as quasars with large HII regions. We also find that the damping wing absorption profile is generally steeper than one would naively expect in a homogeneously ionized universe. The profile steepens and the sightline-to-sightline scatter increases as reionization progresses. Of course, the bias and scatter also depend on x_H and so can, at least in principle, be used to constrain it. Damping wing constraints must therefore be interpreted by comparison to theoretical models of inhomogeneous reionization.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures; submitted to MNRA

Foreground Model and Antenna Calibration Errors in the Measurement of the Sky-Averaged \lambda 21 cm Signal at z~20

The most promising near-term observable of the cosmic dark age prior to widespread reionization (z~15-200) is the sky-averaged \lambda 21 cm background arising from hydrogen in the intergalactic medium. Though an individual antenna could in principle detect the line signature, data analysis must separate foregrounds that are orders of magnitude brighter than the \lambda 21 cm background (but that are anticipated to vary monotonically and gradually with frequency). Using more physically motivated models for foregrounds than in previous studies, we show that the intrinsic "spectral smoothness" of the foregrounds is likely not a concern, and that data analysis for an ideal antenna should be able to detect the \lambda 21 cm signal after deprojecting a ~5th order polynomial in log(\nu). However, we find that the foreground signal is corrupted by the frequency-dependent response of a real antenna. The frequency dependence complicates modeling of foregrounds commonly based on the assumption of spectral smoothness. Much of our study focuses on the Large-aperture Experiment to detect the Dark Age (LEDA), which combines both radiometric and interferometric measurements. We show that statistical uncertainty remaining after fitting antenna gain patterns to interferometric measurements does not compromise extraction of the \lambda 21 cm signal for a range of cosmological models after fitting a 7th order polynomial to radiometric data. Our results generalize to most efforts to measure the sky-averaged spectrum.Comment: 12 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ. Accepted version uploade

Exploring the Implications of Monetary Policy Normalisation for Irish Mortgage Arrears. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, Spring 2019.

The current level of the monetary policy rate in the Eurozone is low both by international and historical standards and will likely rise over the coming years. In this Article we consider what the impact of a rise in ECB policy rates would mean for the Irish mortgage market. First, we examine the structure of the Irish mortgage market in terms of interest rate contract types and explore the link between the mortgage rate and the policy rate. Second, we draw out the results of policy modelling linking arrears and interest rates using a model put forward in Slaymaker et al. (2019). We then use this model to provide some further scenarios exploring the impact of interest rate rises on the arrears rate for particular groups of Irish households. Our findings suggest a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate would lead to a 0.1 percentage point increase in new missed mortgage payments. While households are in a better economic position to withstand policy rate increases given the recovery in the labour market and in house prices, rate rises would lead to payments rising faster than long-term income growth. Younger, lower income households who are at an earlier stage in their mortgage contract are more at risk, as are households on tracker interest rates who have a contractual pass-through from the policy rate to the lending rate

Observational Constraints on the Molecular Gas Content in Nearby Starburst Dwarf Galaxies

Using star formation histories derived from optically resolved stellar populations in nineteen nearby starburst dwarf galaxies observed with the Hubble Space Telescope, we measure the stellar mass surface densities of stars newly formed in the bursts. By assuming a star formation efficiency (SFE), we then calculate the inferred gas surface densities present at the onset of the starbursts. Assuming a SFE of 1%, as is often assumed in normal star-forming galaxies, and assuming that the gas was purely atomic, translates to very high HI surface densities (~10^2-10^3 Msun pc^-2), which are much higher than have been observed in dwarf galaxies. This implies either higher values of SFE in these dwarf starburst galaxies or the presence of significant amounts of H_2 in dwarfs (or both). Raising the assumed SFEs to 10% or greater (in line with observations of more massive starbursts associated with merging galaxies), still results in HI surface densities higher than observed in 10 galaxies. Thus, these observations appear to require that a significant fraction of the gas in these dwarf starbursts galaxies was in the molecular form at the onset of the bursts. Our results imply molecular gas column densities in the range 10^19-10^21 cm^-2 for the sample. In those galaxies where CO observations have been made, these densities correspond to values of the CO-H_2 conversion factor (X_CO) in the range >3-80x10^20 cm^-2 (K km s^-1)^-1, or up to 40x greater than Galactic X_CO values.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

The ACS Nearby Galaxy Survey Treasury VII. The NGC 4214 Starburst and the Effects of Star Formation History on Dwarf Morphology

We present deep Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) optical observations obtained as part of the ACS Nearby Galaxy Survey Treasury (ANGST) as well as early release Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) ultra-violet and infrared observations of the nearby dwarf starbursting galaxy NGC 4214. Our data provide a detailed example of how covering such a broad range in wavelength provides a powerful tool for constraining the physical properties of stellar populations. The deepest data reach the ancient red clump at M_F814W -0.2. All of the optical data reach the main sequence turnoff for stars younger than ~300 Myr, and the blue He burning sequence for stars younger than 500 Myr. The full CMD-fitting analysis shows that all three fields in our data set are consistent with ~75% of the stellar mass being older than 8 Gyr, in spite of showing a wide range in star formation rates at the present day. Thus, our results suggest that the scale length of NGC 4214 has remained relatively constant for many Gyr. As previously noted by others, we also find the galaxy has recently ramped up production, consistent with its bright UV luminosity and its population of UV-bright massive stars. In the central field we find UV point sources with F336W magnitudes as bright as -9.9. These are as bright as stars with masses of at least 52-56 M_sun and ages near 4 Myr in stellar evolution models. Assuming a standard IMF, our CMD is well-fitted by an increase in star formation rate beginning 100 Myr ago. The stellar populations of this late-type dwarf are compared with those of NGC 404, an early-type dwarf that is also the most massive galaxy in its local environment. The late-type dwarf appears to have a similar high fraction of ancient stars, suggesting that these dominant galaxies may form at early epochs even if they have low total mass and very different present-day morphologies.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in Ap