The strength of weak bots

Some fear that social bots, automated accounts on online social networks, propagate falsehoods that can harm public opinion formation and democratic decision-making. Empirical research, however, resulted in puzzling findings. On the one hand, the content emitted by bots tends to spread very quickly in the networks. On the other hand, it turned out that bots’ ability to contact human users tends to be very limited. Here we analyze an agent-based model of social influence in networks explaining this inconsistency. We show that bots may be successful in spreading falsehoods not despite their limited direct impact on human users, but because of this limitation. Our model suggests that bots with limited direct impact on humans may be more and not less effective in spreading their views in the social network, because their direct contacts keep exerting influence on users that the bot does not reach directly. Highly active and well-connected bots, in contrast, may have a strong impact on their direct contacts, but these contacts grow too dissimilar from their network neighbors to further spread the bot\u27s content. To demonstrate this effect, we included bots in Axelrod\u27s seminal model of the dissemination of cultures and conducted simulation experiments demonstrating the strength of weak bots. A series of sensitivity analyses show that the finding is robust, in particular when the model is tailored to the context of online social networks. We discuss implications for future empirical research and developers of approaches to detect bots and misinformatio

The strength of weak bots

Some fear that social bots, automated accounts on online social networks, propagate falsehoods that can harm public opinion formation and democratic decision-making. Empirical research, however, resulted in puzzling findings. On the one hand, the content emitted by bots tends to spread very quickly in the networks. On the other hand, it turned out that bots’ ability to contact human users tends to be very limited. Here we analyze an agent-based model of social influence in networks explaining this inconsistency. We show that bots may be successful in spreading falsehoods not despite their limited direct impact on human users, but because of this limitation. Our model suggests that bots with limited direct impact on humans may be more and not less effective in spreading their views in the social network, because their direct contacts keep exerting influence on users that the bot does not reach directly. Highly active and well-connected bots, in contrast, may have a strong impact on their direct contacts, but these contacts grow too dissimilar from their network neighbors to further spread the bot\u27s content. To demonstrate this effect, we included bots in Axelrod\u27s seminal model of the dissemination of cultures and conducted simulation experiments demonstrating the strength of weak bots. A series of sensitivity analyses show that the finding is robust, in particular when the model is tailored to the context of online social networks. We discuss implications for future empirical research and developers of approaches to detect bots and misinformatio

Cultural Integration and Differentiation in Groups and Organizations

Experimental and field research has demonstrated a pervasive tendency toward pairwise conformity among individuals connected by positive social ties, and work using formal models has shown that opinions on connected inuence networks should thus converge toward uniformity. Observing that diversity persists even in small scale groups and organizations, we investigate two empirically grounded mechanisms of social differentiation that may account for this persistence: First, actors may dislike or disrespect peers who diverge too much from their own views, and may change their opinions or behaviors to distance themselves further from those negative referents. Second, when surrounded by similar others, actors may try to maintain a sufficient sense of uniqueness by exploring new opinions or behaviors. Using computational experiments, we demonstrate that these two mechanisms lead to different patterns of polarization, radicalization, and factionalism and also investigate theconditions under which integration occurs. In closing, we discuss the implications for cultural dynamics in organizations

The role of noise and initial conditions in the asymptotic solution of a bounded confidence, continuous-opinion model

We study a model for continuous-opinion dynamics under bounded confidence. In particular, we analyze the importance of the initial distribution of opinions in determining the asymptotic configuration. Thus, we sketch the structure of attractors of the dynamical system, by means of the numerical computation of the time evolution of the agents density. We show that, for a given bound of confidence, a consensus can be encouraged or prevented by certain initial conditions. Furthermore, a noisy perturbation is added to the system with the purpose of modeling the free will of the agents. As a consequence, the importance of the initial condition is partially replaced by that of the statistical distribution of the noise. Nevertheless, we still find evidence of the influence of the initial state upon the final configuration for a short range of the bound of confidence parameter

Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior, building a complex interplay between risk perception, behavior, and disease spread. We studied how voluntary health-protective behavior and vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. We analyzed how different levels of mandatory NPIs determine how individuals use their leeway for voluntary actions. If mandatory NPIs are too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity and mortality before individuals react; if they are too strong, one expects a rebound wave once restrictions are lifted, challenging the transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate mandatory NPIs give individuals time and room to adapt their level of caution, mitigating disease spread effectively. When complemented with high vaccination rates, this also offers a robust way to limit the impacts of the Omicron variant of concern. Altogether, our work highlights the importance of appropriate mandatory NPIs to maximise the impact of individual voluntary actions in pandemic control

Individualization as driving force of clustering phenomena in humans

One of the most intriguing dynamics in biological systems is the emergence of clustering, the self-organization into separated agglomerations of individuals. Several theories have been developed to explain clustering in, for instance, multi-cellular organisms, ant colonies, bee hives, flocks of birds, schools of fish, and animal herds. A persistent puzzle, however, is clustering of opinions in human populations. The puzzle is particularly pressing if opinions vary continuously, such as the degree to which citizens are in favor of or against a vaccination program. Existing opinion formation models suggest that "monoculture" is unavoidable in the long run, unless subsets of the population are perfectly separated from each other. Yet, social diversity is a robust empirical phenomenon, although perfect separation is hardly possible in an increasingly connected world. Considering randomness did not overcome the theoretical shortcomings so far. Small perturbations of individual opinions trigger social influence cascades that inevitably lead to monoculture, while larger noise disrupts opinion clusters and results in rampant individualism without any social structure. Our solution of the puzzle builds on recent empirical research, combining the integrative tendencies of social influence with the disintegrative effects of individualization. A key element of the new computational model is an adaptive kind of noise. We conduct simulation experiments to demonstrate that with this kind of noise, a third phase besides individualism and monoculture becomes possible, characterized by the formation of metastable clusters with diversity between and consensus within clusters. When clusters are small, individualization tendencies are too weak to prohibit a fusion of clusters. When clusters grow too large, however, individualization increases in strength, which promotes their splitting.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Argument mining: A machine learning perspective

Argument mining has recently become a hot topic, attracting the interests of several and diverse research communities, ranging from artificial intelligence, to computational linguistics, natural language processing, social and philosophical sciences. In this paper, we attempt to describe the problems and challenges of argument mining from a machine learning angle. In particular, we advocate that machine learning techniques so far have been under-exploited, and that a more proper standardization of the problem, also with regards to the underlying argument model, could provide a crucial element to develop better systems