HydroTest: a web-based toolbox of evaluation metrics for the standardised assessment of hydrological forecasts

This paper presents details of an open access web site that can be used by hydrologists and other scientists to evaluate time series models. There is at present a general lack of consistency in the way in which hydrological models are assessed that handicaps the comparison of reported studies and hinders the development of superior models. The HydroTest web site provides a wide range of objective metrics and consistent tests of model performance to assess forecasting skill. This resource is designed to promote future transparency and consistency between reported models and includes an open forum that is intended to encourage further discussion and debate on the topic of hydrological performance evaluation metrics. It is envisaged that the provision of such facilities will lead to the creation of superior forecasting metrics and the development of international benchmark time series datasets

Geographically weighted evidence combination approaches for combining discordant and inconsistent volunteered geographical information

There is much interest in being able to combine crowdsourced data. One of the critical issues in information sciences is how to combine data or information that are discordant or inconsistent in some way. Many previous approaches have taken a majority rules approach under the assumption that most people are correct most of the time. This paper analyses crowdsourced land cover data generated by the Geo-Wiki initiative in order to infer the land cover present at locations on a 50 km grid. It compares four evidence combination approaches (Dempster Shafer, Bayes, Fuzzy Sets and Possibility) applied under a geographically weighted kernel with the geographically weighted average approach applied in many current Geo-Wiki analyses. A geographically weighted approach uses a moving kernel under which local analyses are undertaken. The contribution (or salience) of each data point to the analysis is weighted by its distance to the kernel centre, reflecting Tobler’s 1st law of geography. A series of analyses were undertaken using different kernel sizes (or bandwidths). Each of the geographically weighted evidence combination methods generated spatially distributed measures of belief in hypotheses associated with the presence of individual land cover classes at each location on the grid. These were compared with GlobCover, a global land cover product. The results from the geographically weighted average approach in general had higher correspondence with the reference data and this increased with bandwidth. However, for some classes other evidence combination approaches had higher correspondences possibly because of greater ambiguity over class conceptualisations and / or lower densities of crowdsourced data. The outputs also allowed the beliefs in each class to be mapped. The differences in the soft and the crisp maps are clearly associated with the logics of each evidence combination approach and of course the different questions that they ask of the data. The results show that discordant data can be combined (rather than being removed from analysis) and that data integrated in this way can be parameterised by different measures of belief uncertainty. The discussion highlights a number of critical areas for future research

Investigating the feasibility of geo-tagged photographs as sources of land cover input data

Geo-tagged photographs are used increasingly as a source of Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI), which could potentially be used for land use and land cover applications. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the feasibility of using this source of spatial information for three use cases related to land cover: Calibration, validation and verification. We first provide an inventory of the metadata that are collected with geo-tagged photographs and then consider what elements would be essential, desirable, or unnecessary for the aforementioned use cases. Geo-tagged photographs were then extracted from Flickr, Panoramio and Geograph for an area of London, UK, and classified based on their usefulness for land cover mapping including an analysis of the accompanying metadata. Finally, we discuss protocols for geo-tagged photographs for use of VGI in relation to land cover applications

Developing an Individual-level Geodemographic Classification

Geodemographics is a spatially explicit classification of socio-economic data, which can be used to describe and analyse individuals by where they live. Geodemographic information is used by the public sector for planning and resource allocation but it also has considerable use within commercial sector applications. Early geodemographic systems, such as the UK’s ACORN (A Classification of Residential Neighbourhoods), used only area-based census data, but more recent systems have added supplementary layers of information, e.g. credit details and survey data, to provide better discrimination between classes. Although much more data has now become available, geodemographic systems are still fundamentally built from area-based census information. This is partly because privacy laws require release of census data at an aggregate level but mostly because much of the research remains proprietary. Household level classifications do exist but they are often based on regressions between area and household data sets. This paper presents a different approach for creating a geodemographic classification at the individual level using only census data. A generic framework is presented, which classifies data from the UK Census Small Area Microdata and then allocates the resulting clusters to a synthetic population created via microsimulation. The framework is then applied to the creation of an individual-based system for the city of Leeds, demonstrated using data from the 2001 census, and is further validated using individual and household survey data from the British Household Panel Survey