Portfolio risk evaluation: An approach based on dynamic conditional correlations models and wavelet multiresolution analysis

We analyzed the volatility dynamics of three developed markets (U.K., U.S. and Japan), during the period 2003-2011, by comparing the performance of several multivariate volatility models, namely Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC), Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) and consistent DCC (cDCC) models. To evaluate the performance of models we used four statistical loss functions on the daily Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates of a diversified portfolio in three stock indices: FTSE 100, S&P 500 and Nikkei 225. We based on one-day ahead conditional variance forecasts. To assess the performance of the abovementioned models and to measure risks over different time-scales, we proposed a wavelet-based approach which decomposes a given time series on different time horizons. Wavelet multiresolution analysis and multivariate conditional volatility models are combined for volatility forecasting to measure the comovement between stock market returns and to estimate daily VaR in the time-frequency space. Empirical results shows that the asymmetric cDCC model of Aielli (2008) is the most preferable according to statistical loss functions under raw data. The results also suggest that wavelet-based models increase predictive performance of financial forecasting in low scales according to number of violations and failure probabilities for VaR models

Rhanteriol, a New Rhanterium suaveolens Desf. Lignan with Pharmacological Potential as an Inhibitor of Enzymes Involved in Neurodegeneration and Type 2 Diabetes

Several specialized plant metabolites are reported to be enzyme inhibitors. In this investigation, the phytochemical composition and the biological activity of Rhanterium suaveolens Desf. were studied. One new lignan (rhanteriol 1) and seven known secondary metabolites were isolated from the aerial parts of R. suaveolens by using different chromatographic procedures. The biological properties of the R. suaveolens extracts and the new compound were evaluated by measuring their ability to inhibit the cholinesterase and carbohydrate-hydrolyzing enzymes, using cell-free in vitro methods. The new lignan, rhanteriol, was shown to inhibit alpha-amylase and alpha-glucosidase (IC50 = 46.42 +/- 3.25 mu M and 26.76 +/- 3.29 mu M, respectively), as well as butyrylcholinesterase (IC50 = 10.41 +/- 0.03 mu M), with an effect comparable to that of the respective standards, acarbose and galantamine. Furthermore, docking studies were performed suggesting the interaction mode of rhanteriol with the active sites of the investigated enzymes. The obtained data demonstrated that the aerial part of R. suaveolens could represent a source of active molecules, such as rhanteriol, usable in the development of treatments for preventing or treating type 2 diabetes mellitus and neurodegeneration

An obstetric sphincter injury risk identification system (OSIRIS): is this a clinically useful tool?

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: To establish the contribution of maternal, fetal and intrapartum factors to the risk of incidence of obstetric anal sphincter injuries (OASIS) and assess the feasibility of an OASIS risk prediction model based on variables available to clinicians prior to birth. METHODS: This was a population-based, retrospective cohort study using single-site data from the birth database of Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark. The participants were all women who had a singleton vaginal birth during the period 1989 to 2006. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed using multiple imputations for missing data and internally validated using bootstrap methods. The main outcome measures were the contributions of maternal, fetal and intrapartum events to the incidence of OASIS. RESULTS: A total of 71,469 women met the inclusion criteria, of whom 1,754 (2.45 %) sustained OASIS. In the multivariate analysis of variables known prior to birth, maternal age 20 – 30 years (OR 1.65, 95 % CI 1.44 – 1.89) and ≥30 years (OR 1.60, 95 % CI 1.39 – 1.85), occipitoposterior fetal position (OR 1.34, 95 % CI 1.06 – 1.70), induction/augmentation of labour (OR 1.46, 95 % CI 1.32 – 1.62), and suspected macrosomia (OR 2.20, 95 % CI 1.97 – 2.45) were independent significant predictors of OASIS, with increasing parity conferring a significant protective effect. The ‘prebirth variable’ model showed a 95 % sensitivity and a 24 % specificity in predicting OASIS with 1 % probability, and a 3 % sensitivity and a 99 % specificity in predicting OASIS with a 10 % probability. CONCLUSIONS: Our model identified several significant OASIS risk factors that are known prior to actual birth. The prognostic model shows potential for ruling out OASIS (high sensitivity with a low risk cut-off value), but is not useful for ruling in the event. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00192-016-3125-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Creation of multiple nanodots by single ions

In the challenging search for tools that are able to modify surfaces on the nanometer scale, heavy ions with energies of several 10 MeV are becoming more and more attractive. In contrast to slow ions where nuclear stopping is important and the energy is dissipated into a large volume in the crystal, in the high energy regime the stopping is due to electronic excitations only. Because of the extremely local (< 1 nm) energy deposition with densities of up to 10E19 W/cm^2, nanoscaled hillocks can be created under normal incidence. Usually, each nanodot is due to the impact of a single ion and the dots are randomly distributed. We demonstrate that multiple periodically spaced dots separated by a few 10 nanometers can be created by a single ion if the sample is irradiated under grazing angles of incidence. By varying this angle the number of dots can be controlled.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Potential energy threshold for nano-hillock formation by impact of slow highly charged ions on a CaF2_2(111) surface

We investigate the formation of nano-sized hillocks on the (111) surface of CaF$_2$ single crystals by impact of slow highly charged ions. Atomic force microscopy reveals a surprisingly sharp and well-defined threshold of potential energy carried into the collision of about 14 keV for hillock formation. Estimates of the energy density deposited suggest that the threshold is linked to a solid-liquid phase transition (``melting'') on the nanoscale. With increasing potential energy, both the basal diameter and the height of the hillocks increase. The present results reveal a remarkable similarity between the present predominantly potential-energy driven process and track formation by the thermal spike of swift ($\sim$ GeV) heavy ions.Comment: 10 pages, 2 figure

HICS: Highly charged ion collisions with surfaces

The layout of a new instrument designed to study the interaction of highly charged ions with surfaces, which consists of an ion source, a beamline including charge separation and a target chamber, is presented here. By varying the charge state and impact velocity of the projectiles separately, the dissipation of potential and kinetic energy at or below the surface can be studied independently. The target chamber offers the use of tunable metal-insulator-metal devices as detectors for internal electronic excitation, a timeof-flight system to study the impact induced particle emission and the possibility to transfer samples in situ to a UHV scanning probe microscope. Samples and detectors can be prepared in situ as well. As a first example data on graphene layers on SrTiO3 which have been irradiated with Xe36+ are presented. Key words: highly charged ions, sputtering, AFM, grapheneComment: 4 pages, 4 figures, conference proceeding to 17th Internat. Workshop for Ion Surf. Collision

Characterization of MHz pulse repetition rate femtosecond laser-irradiated gold-coated silicon surfaces

In this study, MHz pulse repetition rate femtosecond laser-irradiated gold-coated silicon surfaces under ambient condition were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The radiation fluence used was 0.5 J/cm2 at a pulse repetition rate of 25 MHz with 1 ms interaction time. SEM analysis of the irradiated surfaces showed self-assembled intermingled weblike nanofibrous structure in and around the laser-irradiated spots. Further TEM investigation on this nanostructure revealed that the nanofibrous structure is formed due to aggregation of Au-Si/Si nanoparticles. The XRD peaks at 32.2°, 39.7°, and 62.5° were identified as (200), (211), and (321) reflections, respectively, corresponding to gold silicide. In addition, the observed chemical shift of Au 4f and Si 2p lines in XPS spectrum of the irradiated surface illustrated the presence of gold silicide at the irradiated surface. The generation of Si/Au-Si alloy fibrous nanoparticles aggregate is explained by the nucleation and subsequent condensation of vapor in the plasma plume during irradiation and expulsion of molten material due to high plasma pressure

Formation of silicon nanodots via ion beam sputtering of ultrathin gold thin film coatings on Si

Ion beam sputtering of ultrathin film Au coatings used as a physical catalyst for self-organization of Si nanostructures has been achieved by tuning the incident particle energy. This approach holds promise as a scalable nanomanufacturing parallel processing alternative to candidate nanolithography techniques. Structures of 11- to 14-nm Si nanodots are formed with normal incidence low-energy Ar ions of 200 eV and fluences above 2 × 1017 cm-2. In situ surface characterization during ion irradiation elucidates early stage ion mixing migration mechanism for nanodot self-organization. In particular, the evolution from gold film islands to the formation of ion-induced metastable gold silicide followed by pure Si nanodots formed with no need for impurity seeding

Genome wide analysis of gene expression changes in skin from patients with type 2 diabetes

Non-healing chronic ulcers are a serious complication of diabetes and are a major healthcare problem. While a host of treatments have been explored to heal or prevent these ulcers from forming, these treatments have not been found to be consistently effective in clinical trials. An understanding of the changes in gene expression in the skin of diabetic patients may provide insight into the processes and mechanisms that precede the formation of non-healing ulcers. In this study, we investigated genome wide changes in gene expression in skin between patients with type 2 diabetes and non-diabetic patients using next generation sequencing. We compared the gene expression in skin samples taken from 27 patients (13 with type 2 diabetes and 14 non-diabetic). This information may be useful in identifying the causal factors and potential therapeutic targets for the prevention and treatment of diabetic related diseases

Joint management of shared resources as an alternative approach for addressing maritime boundary disputes : the Kenya-Somalia maritime boundary dispute

Socio-economic security has motivated African states to explore natural resources in areas of overlapping maritime claims. However, Africa’s maritime boundaries are characterized by unresolved disputes. Resolution of these disputes is time-consuming, expensive and can undermine the state’s ability to exploit natural resources. The Somalia and Kenya maritime dispute under litigation with the International Court of Justice demonstrates the continental commitment to peaceful resolution. Citing cases from across Africa, we discuss outright delimitation or Joint Management Zones (JMZs) as means to address disputes over shared resources, particularly transboundary fisheries, which have received little attention. Reframing the Kenya-Somalia maritime dispute resolution process as cooperation over fisheries management will have spill-over effects into greater diplomatic relations. Fish do not abide by maritime boundaries. As such, we posit that the peaceful resolution of maritime boundary disputes lies in Africa’s ability to consider settlements by way of JMZs to motivate sustainable use of natural resources.PostprintPeer reviewe