Real estate stock selection and attribute preferences

The majority of studies that explore property portfolio construction and management strategies utilise highly aggregated ex-post data, but stock selection is known to be a significant determinant of portfolio performance. Thus, here we look at stock selection, focusing on the choices faced by investors, necessitating the collection and analysis of primary data, carried out utilising conjoint analysis. This represents a new step in property research, with the data collection undertaken using a simulation exercise. This enables fund managers to make hypothetical purchase decisions, viewing properties comprising a realistic bundle of attributes and making complex contemporaneous trade-offs between attributes, subject to their stated market and economic forecasts and sector specialism. In total 51 fund managers were surveyed, producing 918 purchase decisions for analysis, with additional data collected regarding fund and personal characteristics. The results reveal that ‘fixed’ property characteristics (location and obsolescence) are dominant in the decision-making process, over and above ‘manageable’ tenant and lease characteristics which can be explicitly included within models of probabilities of income variation. This reveals investors are making ex-ante risk judgements and are considering post acquisition risk management strategies. The study also reveals that behavioural factors affect acquisition decisions

Obscuring and feeding supermassive black holes with evolving nuclear star clusters

Recently, high resolution observations with the help of the near-infrared adaptive optics integral field spectrograph SINFONI at the VLT proved the existence of massive and young nuclear star clusters in the centres of a sample of Seyfert galaxies. With the help of high resolution hydrodynamical simulations with the PLUTO-code, we follow the evolution of such clusters, especially focusing on mass and energy feedback from young stars. This leads to a filamentary inflow of gas on large scales (tens of parsec), whereas a turbulent and very dense disc builds up on the parsec scale. Here, we concentrate on the long-term evolution of the nuclear disc in NGC 1068 with the help of an effective viscous disc model, using the mass input from the large scale simulations and accounting for star formation in the disc. This two-stage modelling enables us to connect the tens of parsec scale region (observable with SINFONI) with the parsec scale environment (MIDI observations). At the current age of the nuclear star cluster, our simulations predict disc sizes of the order of 0.8 to 0.9 pc, gas masses of 1.0e6 Msun and mass transfer rates through the inner boundary of 0.025 Msun/yr in good agreement with values derived from observations.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, to appear in the proceedings of the IAU General Assembly 2009, Rio de Janeiro, S267 Co-evolution of Central Black Holes and Galaxie

Structural development of laminar flow control aircraft chordwise wing joint designs

For laminar flow to be achieved, any protuberances on the surface must be small enough to avoid transition to turbulent flow. However, the surface must have joints between the structural components to allow assembly or replacement of damaged parts, although large continuous surfaces can be utilized to minimize the number the number of joints. Aircraft structural joints usually have many countersunk bolts or rivets on the outer surface. To maintain no mismatch on outer surfaces, it is desirable to attach the components from the inner surface. It is also desirable for the panels to be interchangeable, without the need for shims at the joint, to avoid surface discontinuities that could cause turbulence. Fabricating components while pressing their outer surfaces against an accurate mold helps to ensure surface smoothness and continuity at joints. These items were considered in evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of the joint design concepts. After evaluating six design concepts, two of the leading candidates were fabricated and tested using many small test panels. One joint concept was also built and tested using large panels. The small and large test panel deflections for the leading candidate designs at load factors up to +1.5 g's were well within the step and waviness requirements for avoiding transition.The small panels were designed and tested for compression and tension at -65 F, at ambient conditions, and at 160 F. The small panel results for the three-rib and the sliding-joint concepts indicated that they were both acceptable. The three-rib concept, with tapered splice plates, was considered to be the most practical. A modified three-rib joint that combined the best attributes of previous candidates was designed, developed, and tested. This improved joint met all of the structural strength, surface smoothness, and waviness criteria for laminar flow control (LFC). The design eliminated all disadvantages of the initial three-rib concept except for unavoidable eccentricity, which was reduced and reacted satisfactorily by the rib supports. It should also result in a relatively simple low-cost installation, and makes it easy to replace any panels damaged in the field

Nonuniqueness in a minimal model for cell motility

Two–phase flow models have been used previously to model cell motility, however these have rapidly become very complicated, including many physical processes, and are opaque. Here we demonstrate that even the simplest one–dimensional, two–phase, poroviscous, reactive flow model displays a number of behaviours relevant to cell crawling. We present stability analyses that show that an asymmetric perturbation is required to cause a spatially uniform, stationary strip of cytoplasm to move, which is relevant to cell polarization. Our numerical simulations identify qualitatively distinct families of travelling–wave solution that co–exist at certain parameter values. Within each family, the crawling speed of the strip has a bell–shaped dependence on the adhesion strength. The model captures the experimentally observed behaviour that cells crawl quickest at intermediate adhesion strengths, when the substrate is neither too sticky nor too slippy

Origin of non-keplerian motions of masers in NGC 1068

We demonstrate that the ``sub-keplerian'' rotation curve of maser spots in NGC 1068 can be explained by the gravitational attraction of the disc orbiting the central black hole. Possible parameters matching observations are: black hole mass of 12 million solar masses, disc outer edge > 1.3 pc, aspect ratio in the range 0.003 to 0.3, surface density varying approximately as 1/R, and disc mass of about 9.4 million solar masses. The physical conditions required for the excitation of masers are fulfilled, and the outer disc would stand in a gravitationally marginally stable state.Comment: 4 pages; accepted in A&A Letter

A Flaring Megamaser in Mrk 348

We report new observations of the H2O megamaser in the Seyfert 2 galaxy Mrk 348. Following our initial detection in 2000 March using the Effelsberg 100 m telescope, re-analysis of previous data on this source indicates that the maser was present but only marginally detectable in late 1997. Monitoring through late 2000 shows that the maser has again decreased to its original level. The H2O line is redshifted by ~130 km/s with respect to the systemic velocity, is extremely broad, with a FWHM of 130 km/s, and has no detectable high velocity components within 1500 km/s on either side of the strong line. Followup VLBA observations show that the maser emission emanates entirely from a region >0.25 pc in extent, toward the base of the radio jet.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figures, to appear in Cosmic Masers: from Protostars to Black Holes, IAU 206, Eds. V. Migenes et al., ASP Conference Serie

Online molecular characterisation of organic aerosols in an atmospheric chamber using extractive electrospray ionisation mass spectrometry

Abstract. The oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) represents a substantial source of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in the atmosphere. In this study, we present online measurements of the molecular constituents formed in the gas and aerosol phases during α-pinene oxidation in the Cambridge Atmospheric Simulation Chamber (CASC). We focus on characterising the performance of extractive electrospray ionisation (EESI) mass spectrometry (MS) for particle analysis. A number of new aspects of EESI-MS performance are considered here. We show that relative quantification of organic analytes can be achieved in mixed organic–inorganic particles. A comprehensive assignment of mass spectra for α-pinene derived SOA in both positive and negative ion modes is obtained using an ultra-high-resolution mass spectrometer. We compare these online spectra to conventional offline ESI-MS spectra and find good agreement in terms of the compounds identified, without the need for complex sample work-up procedures. Under our experimental conditions, EESI-MS signals arise only from particle-phase analytes. High-time-resolution (7 min) EESI-MS spectra are compared with simulations from the near-explicit Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) for a range of reaction conditions. We show that MS peak abundances scale with modelled concentrations for condensable products (pinonic acid, pinic acid, OH-pinonic acid). Relative quantification is achieved throughout SOA formation as the composition, size and mass (5–2400 µg m−3) of particles is evolving. This work provides a robust demonstration of the advantages of EESI-MS for chamber studies over offline ESI-MS (time resolution, relative quantification) and over hard online techniques (molecular information). </jats:p