Climate Response to Negative Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing in Polar Winter

Greenhouse gas (GHG) additions to Earth’s atmosphere initially reduce global outgoing longwave radiation, thereby warming the planet. In select environments with temperature inversions, however, increased GHG concentrations can actually increase local outgoing longwave radiation. Negative top of atmosphere and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from this situation give the impression that local surface temperatures could cool in response to GHG increases. Here we consider an extreme scenario in which GHG concentrations are increased only within the warmest layers of winter near‐surface inversions of the Arctic and Antarctic. We find, using a fully coupled Earth system model, that the underlying surface warms despite the GHG addition exerting negative ERF and cooling the troposphere in the vicinity of the GHG increase. This unique radiative forcing and thermal response is facilitated by the high stability of the polar winter atmosphere, which inhibit thermal mixing and amplify the impact of surface radiative forcing on surface temperature. These findings also suggest that strategies to exploit negative ERF via injections of short‐lived GHGs into inversion layers would likely be unsuccessful in cooling the planetary surface.Key PointsIncreased GHG concentrations in polar inversion layers cause negative top of atmosphere instantaneous and effective radiative forcingPolar and global surface temperatures warm despite this negative radiative forcingSurface warming and tropospheric cooling result from high stability and increased surface downwelling longwave fluxPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142965/1/grl56994_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142965/2/grl56994.pd

Sensitivity studies on the impacts of Tibetan Plateau snowpack pollution on the Asian hydrological cycle and monsoon climate

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. In this modeling study a series of numerical experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate radiative effect of black carbon (BC) and dust in snow, and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic CO₂ and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow on the snowpack over the TP and subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Simulations results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope. Because of the high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation in the low latitude and high elevation, the TP exhibits the largest surface radiative flux changes induced by aerosols (e.g. BC, Dust) in snow compared to any other snow-covered regions in the world. <br><br> Simulation results show that the aerosol-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface radiative flux changes of 5–25 W m⁻² during spring, with a maximum in April or May. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0 °C averaged over the TP and reduces spring snowpack over the TP more than pre-industrial to present CO₂ increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer (i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates). The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1–4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO₂ increase during April–July, indicating that BC-in-snow more efficiently accelerates snowmelt because the increased net solar radiation induced by reduced albedo melts the snow more efficiently than snow melt due to warming in the air. <br><br> The TP also influences the South (SAM) and East (EAM) Asian monsoon through its dynamical and thermal forcing. Simulation results show that during boreal spring aerosols are transported by southwesterly, causing some particles to reach higher altitude and deposit to the snowpack over the TP. While BC and Organic Matter (OM) in the atmosphere directly absorb sunlight and warm the air, the darkened snow surface polluted by BC absorbs more solar radiation and increases the skin temperature, which warms the air above through sensible heat flux. Both effects enhance the upward motion of air and spur deep convection along the TP during the pre-monsoon season, resulting in earlier onset of the SAM and increase of moisture, cloudiness and convective precipitation over northern India. BC-in-snow has a more significant impact on the EAM in July than CO₂ increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. Contributed by the significant increase of both sensible heat flux associated with the warm skin temperature and latent heat flux associated with increased soil moisture with long memory, the role of the TP as a heat pump is elevated from spring through summer as the land-sea thermal contrast increases to strengthen the EAM. As a result, both southern China and northern China become wetter, but central China (i.e. Yangtze River Basin) becomes drier – a near-zonal anomaly pattern that is consistent with the dominant mode of precipitation variability in East Asia. <br><br> The snow impurity effects reported in this study likely represent some upper limits as snowpack is remarkably overestimated over the TP due to excessive precipitation. Improving the simulation of precipitation and snowpack will be important for improved estimates of the effects of snowpack pollution in future work

Neither dust nor black carbon causing apparent albedo decline in Greenland\u27s dry snow zone: Implications for MODIS C5 surface reflectance

Remote sensing observations suggest Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) albedo has declined since 2001, even in the dry snow zone. We seek to explain the apparent dry snow albedo decline. We analyze samples representing 2012–2014 snowfall across NW Greenland for black carbon and dust light-absorbing impurities (LAI) and model their impacts on snow albedo. Albedo reductions due to LAI are small, averaging 0.003, with episodic enhancements resulting in reductions of 0.01–0.02. No significant increase in black carbon or dust concentrations relative to recent decades is found. Enhanced deposition of LAI is not, therefore, causing significant dry snow albedo reduction or driving melt events. Analysis of Collection 5 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data indicates that the decline and spectral shift in dry snow albedo contains important contributions from uncorrected Terra sensor degradation. Though discrepancies are mostly below the stated accuracy of MODIS products, they will require revisiting some prior conclusions with C6 data

Do biomass burning aerosols intensify drought in equatorial Asia during El Niño?

During El Niño years, fires in tropical forests and peatlands in equatorial Asia create large regional smoke clouds. We characterized the sensitivity of these clouds to regional drought, and we investigated their effects on climate by using an atmospheric general circulation model. Satellite observations during 2000–2006 indicated that El Niño-induced regional drought led to increases in fire emissions and, consequently, increases in aerosol optical depths over Sumatra, Borneo and the surrounding ocean. Next, we used the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to investigate how climate responded to this forcing. We conducted two 30 year simulations in which monthly fire emissions were prescribed for either a high (El Niño, 1997) or low (La Niña, 2000) fire year using a satellite-derived time series of fire emissions. Our simulations included the direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols on the radiation budget within the model. We assessed the radiative and climate effects of anthropogenic fire by analyzing the differences between the high and low fire simulations. Fire aerosols reduced net shortwave radiation at the surface during August–October by 19.1&amp;plusmn;12.9 W m&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;2&lt;/sup&gt; (10%) in a region that encompassed most of Sumatra and Borneo (90&amp;deg; E–120&amp;deg; E, 5&amp;deg; S–5&amp;deg; N). The reductions in net shortwave radiation cooled sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land surface temperatures by 0.5&amp;plusmn;0.3 and 0.4&amp;plusmn;0.2 &amp;deg;C during these months. Tropospheric heating from black carbon (BC) absorption averaged 20.5&amp;plusmn;9.3 W m&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;2&lt;/sup&gt; and was balanced by a reduction in latent heating. The combination of decreased SSTs and increased atmospheric heating reduced regional precipitation by 0.9&amp;plusmn;0.6 mm d&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;1&lt;/sup&gt; (10%). The vulnerability of ecosystems to fire was enhanced because the decreases in precipitation exceeded those for evapotranspiration. Together, the satellite and modeling results imply a possible positive feedback loop in which anthropogenic burning in the region intensifies drought stress during El Niño

Investigating the impact of aerosol deposition on snowmelt over the Greenland Ice Sheet using a large-ensemble kernel

Accelerating surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has led to a doubling of Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise during recent decades. Black carbon (BC), dust, and other light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) darken the surface and enhance snowmelt by boosting the absorption of solar energy. It is therefore important for coupled aerosol–climate and ice sheet models to include snow darkening effects from LAI, and yet most do not. In this study, we conduct several thousand simulations with the Community Land Model (CLM) component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to characterize changes in melt runoff due to variations in the amount, timing, and nature (wet or dry) of BC deposition on the GrIS. From this large matrix of simulations, we develop a kernel relating runoff to the location, month, year (from 2006 to 2015), and magnitudes of BC concentration within precipitation and dry deposition flux. BC deposition during June–August causes the largest increase in annually integrated runoff, but winter deposition events also exert large (roughly half as great) runoff perturbations due to reexposure of impurities at the snow surface during summer melt. Current BC deposition fluxes simulated with the atmosphere component of CESM induce a climatological-mean increase in GrIS-wide runoff of  ∼ &thinsp;8&thinsp;Gt&thinsp;yr−1, or +6.8&thinsp;% relative to a paired simulation without BC deposition. We also provide linear equations that relate the increase in total runoff to GrIS-wide wet and dry BC deposition fluxes. It is our hope that the runoff kernel and simple equations provided here can be used to extend the utility of state-of-the-art aerosol models.</p

Recent increase in black carbon concentrations from a Mt. Everest ice core spanning 1860–2000 AD

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95622/1/grl27751.pd

Transport of black carbon to polar regions: Sensitivity and forcing by black carbon

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/95651/1/grl29697.pd

Quantifying black carbon deposition over the Greenland ice sheet from forest fires in Canada

Black carbon (BC) concentrations observed in 22 snowpits sampled in the northwest sector of the Greenland ice sheet in April 2014 have allowed us to identify a strong and widespread BC aerosol deposition event, which was dated to have accumulated in the pits from two snow storms between 27 July and 2 August 2013. This event comprises a significant portion (57% on average across all pits) of total BC deposition over 10 months (July 2013 to April 2014). Here we link this deposition event to forest fires burning in Canada during summer 2013 using modeling and remote sensing tools. Aerosols were detected by both the Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (on board CALIPSO) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Aqua) instruments during transport between Canada and Greenland. We use high‐resolution regional chemical transport modeling (WRF‐Chem) combined with high‐resolution fire emissions (FINNv1.5) to study aerosol emissions, transport, and deposition during this event. The model captures the timing of the BC deposition event and shows that fires in Canada were the main source of deposited BC. However, the model underpredicts BC deposition compared to measurements at all sites by a factor of 2–100. Underprediction of modeled BC deposition originates from uncertainties in fire emissions and model treatment of wet removal of aerosols. Improvements in model descriptions of precipitation scavenging and emissions from wildfires are needed to correctly predict deposition, which is critical for determining the climate impacts of aerosols that originate from fires

Improving snow albedo processes in WRF/SSiB regional climate model to assess impact of dust and black carbon in snow on surface energy balance and hydrology over western U.S.

Two important factors that control snow albedo are snow grain growth and presence of light‐absorbing impurities (aerosols) in snow. However, current regional climate models do not include such processes in a physically based manner in their land surface models. We improve snow albedo calculations in the Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) land surface model coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model (RCM), by incorporating the physically based SNow ICe And Radiative (SNICAR) scheme. SNICAR simulates snow albedo evolution due to snow aging and presence of aerosols in snow. The land surface model is further modified to account for deposition, movement, and removal by meltwater of such impurities in the snowpack. This paper presents model development technique, validation with in situ observations, and preliminary results from RCM simulations investigating the impact of such impurities in snow on surface energy and water budgets. By including snow‐aerosol interactions, the new land surface model is able to realistically simulate observed snow albedo, snow grain size, dust in snow, and surface water and energy balances in offline simulations for a location in western U.S. Preliminary results with the fully coupled RCM show that over western U.S., realistic aerosol deposition in snow induces a springtime average radiative forcing of 16 W/m2 due to a 6% albedo reduction, a regional surface warming of 0.84°C, and a snowpack reduction of 11 mm.Key PointsIncluding snow aging and aerosols in snow improves offline and WRF snow simulationsDust and black/organic carbon exerts nontrivial radiative forcing in western U.S.RCM simulation shows temperature increase and snow mass loss from aerosols in snowPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/111782/1/jgrd52045.pd

Arctic air pollution: Challenges and opportunities for the next decade

The Arctic is a sentinel of global change. This region is influenced by multiple physical and socio-economic drivers and feedbacks, impacting both the natural and human environment. Air pollution is one such driver that impacts Arctic climate change, ecosystems and health but significant uncertainties still surround quantification of these effects. Arctic air pollution includes harmful trace gases (e.g. tropospheric ozone) and particles (e.g. black carbon, sulphate) and toxic substances (e.g. polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) that can be transported to the Arctic from emission sources located far outside the region, or emitted within the Arctic from activities including shipping, power production, and other industrial activities. This paper qualitatively summarizes the complex science issues motivating the creation of a new international initiative, PACES (air Pollution in the Arctic: Climate, Environment and Societies). Approaches for coordinated, international and interdisciplinary research on this topic are described with the goal to improve predictive capability via new understanding about sources, processes, feedbacks and impacts of Arctic air pollution. Overarching research actions are outlined, in which we describe our recommendations for 1) the development of trans-disciplinary approaches combining social and economic research with investigation of the chemical and physical aspects of Arctic air pollution; 2) increasing the quality and quantity of observations in the Arctic using long-term monitoring and intensive field studies, both at the surface and throughout the troposphere; and 3) developing improved predictive capability across a range of spatial and temporal scales