The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden

The impact of green space structure on physiological equivalent temperature index in open space

Planting vegetation in urban areas can tilt the heat balance in favor of cooler temperatures. For this reason, studying the extension and intensity of the cooling effect of vegetation and the factors which can influence these two parameters is significant in open space design. In this regard, the purpose of the present study was to analyze the different thermal behaviors of green spaces at the micro scale and explain the reason of different extensions and intensities of the cooling effect in spaces which have vegetation. The region of Sistan (Zabol), situated east of Iran, was selected as the study area. Data analysis and study of the parameters affecting physiological equivalent temperature index indicated that the highest impact of green space on this index is related to air temperature and mean radiant temperature among all microclimatic parameters. It was revealed that in stations with vegetation, mean air temperature was lower by 1 °C, mean radiant temperature was lower by 6 °C and PET index was lower by 7 °C in comparison to stations without any vegetation. Analysis of the relation between PET and spatial variables which form the structure of green space, indicated that flooring type has a significant relation with physiological equivalent temperature

Dynamic Ensemble Selection Using Fuzzy Hyperboxes

Most dynamic ensemble selection (DES) methods utilize the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm to estimate the competence of classifiers in a small region surrounding the query sample. However, KNN is very sensitive to the local distribution of the data. Moreover, it also has a high computational cost as it requires storing the whole data in memory and performing multiple distance calculations during inference. Hence, the dependency on the KNN algorithm ends up limiting the use of DES techniques for large-scale problems. This paper presents a new DES framework based on fuzzy hyperboxes called FH-DES. Each hyperbox can represent a group of samples using only two data points (Min and Max corners). Thus, the hyperbox-based system will have less computational complexity than other dynamic selection methods. In addition, despite the KNN-based approaches, the fuzzy hyperbox is not sensitive to the local data distribution. Therefore, the local distribution of the samples does not affect the system's performance. Furthermore, in this research, for the first time, misclassified samples are used to estimate the competence of the classifiers, which has not been observed in previous fusion approaches. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method has high classification accuracy while having a lower complexity when compared with the state-of-the-art dynamic selection methods. The implemented code is available at https://github.com/redavtalab/FH-DES_IJCNN.git

An Integrated Approach for Site Selection of Snow Measurement Stations

Snowmelt provides a reliable water resource for meeting domestic, agricultural, industrial and hydropower demands. Consequently, estimating the available snow water equivalent is essential for water resource management of snowy regions. Due to the spatiotemporal variability of the snowfall pattern in mountainous areas and difficult access to high altitudes areas, snow measurement is one of the most challenging hydro-meteorological data collection efforts. Development of an optimum snow measurement network is a complex task that requires integration of meteorological, hydrological, physiographical and economic studies. In this study, site selection of snow measurement stations is carried out through an integrated process using observed snow course data and analysis of historical snow cover images from National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) at both regional and local scales. Several important meteorological and hydrological factors, such as monthly and annual rainfall distribution, spatial distribution of average frequency of snow observation (FSO) for two periods of snow falling and melting season, as well as priority contribution of sub-basins to annual snowmelt runoff are considered for selecting optimum station network. The FSO maps representing accumulation of snowfall during falling months and snowpack persistence during melting months are prepared in the GIS based on NOAA-AVHRR historical snow cover images. Basins are partitioned into 250 m elevation intervals such that within each interval, establishment of new stations or relocation/removing of the existing stations were proposed. The decision is made on the basis of the combination of meteorological, hydrological and satellite information. Economic aspects and road access constraints are also considered in determining the station type. Eventually, for the study area encompassing a number of large basins in southwest of Iran, several new stations and relocation of some existing stations are proposed

An Integrated Approach for Site Selection of Snow Measurement Stations

Snowmelt provides a reliable water resource for meeting domestic, agricultural, industrial and hydropower demands. Consequently, estimating the available snow water equivalent is essential for water resource management of snowy regions. Due to the spatiotemporal variability of the snowfall pattern in mountainous areas and difficult access to high altitudes areas, snow measurement is one of the most challenging hydro-meteorological data collection efforts. Development of an optimum snow measurement network is a complex task that requires integration of meteorological, hydrological, physiographical and economic studies. In this study, site selection of snow measurement stations is carried out through an integrated process using observed snow course data and analysis of historical snow cover images from National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) at both regional and local scales. Several important meteorological and hydrological factors, such as monthly and annual rainfall distribution, spatial distribution of average frequency of snow observation (FSO) for two periods of snow falling and melting season, as well as priority contribution of sub-basins to annual snowmelt runoff are considered for selecting optimum station network. The FSO maps representing accumulation of snowfall during falling months and snowpack persistence during melting months are prepared in the GIS based on NOAA-AVHRR historical snow cover images. Basins are partitioned into 250 m elevation intervals such that within each interval, establishment of new stations or relocation/removing of the existing stations were proposed. The decision is made on the basis of the combination of meteorological, hydrological and satellite information. Economic aspects and road access constraints are also considered in determining the station type. Eventually, for the study area encompassing a number of large basins in southwest of Iran, several new stations and relocation of some existing stations are proposed

Accurate Prediction of the Condensed Phase (Solid or Liquid) Heat of Formation of Triazolium-based Energetic Ionic Salts at 298.15 K

A novel method is introduced for the reliable prediction of the condensed phase (solid or liquid) heat of formation (Δf H θ (c)) of triazolium-based energetic ionic salts (EISs) at 298.15 K. It is based on the influence of some specific elemental compositions of cations and anions as additive parts. Two correcting functions, as non-additive quantities, are also used to adjust the first part. The coefficients of the specific elemental compositions of cations and anions in the new correlation, with a negative sign as well as a negative correcting function in the triazolium-based EISs, can decrease the value of Δf H θ (c) for the corresponding EISs. The reported Δf H θ (c) values of 57 different triazolium-based EISs were used to derive the new model. For 34 triazolium-based EISs, where the outputs of quantum mechanical methods were available, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of the new model was 156.0 kJ/mol. Meanwhile, the RMSE of complicated quantum mechanical methods is very large, i.e. 298.0 kJ/mol. The high reliability of the new model was also confirmed for a further 5 complex triazolium-based EISs as compared to the results of quantum mechanical calculations