Real-time prediction with U.K. monetary aggregates in the presence of model uncertainty

A popular account for the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime in the 1980s blames the fluctuating predictive relationships between broad money and inflation and real output growth. Yet ex post policy analysis based on heavily revised data suggests no fluctuations in the predictive content of money. In this paper, we investigate the predictive relationships for inflation and output growth using both real-time and heavily revised data. We consider a large set of recursively estimated vector autoregressive (VAR) and vector error correction models (VECM). These models differ in terms of lag length and the number of cointegrating relationships. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to demonstrate that real-time monetary policymakers faced considerable model uncertainty. The in-sample predictive content of money fluctuated during the 1980s as a result of data revisions in the presence of model uncertainty. This feature is only apparent with real-time data as heavily revised data obscure these fluctuations. Out-of-sample predictive evaluations rarely suggest that money matters for either inflation or real output. We conclude that both data revisions and model uncertainty contributed to the demise of the U.K.’s monetary targeting regime

Monetary policy uncertainty spillovers in time and frequency domains

We use the recently created monthly Interest Rate Uncertainty measure, to investigate monetary policy uncertainty across the US, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Canada, and Sweden in both the time and frequency domains. We find that the largest spillover indices are from innovations in the country itself; however, there are some instances where spillover indices between countries are large. These relationships change over time and we observe large variances in pairwise spillovers during the global financial crisis. We find that most of the volatility is confined to the crisis period. Policy makers should consider accounting for the spillovers from the US, Germany, France and Spain, as we found that they are the most consistent net transmitters of monetary policy uncertainty

Structure and apparent topography of TiO2 (110) surfaces

We present self-consistent ab-initio total-energy and electronic-structure calculations on stoichiometric and non-stoichiometric TiO2 (110) surfaces. Scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) topographs are simulated by calculating the local electronic density of states over an energy window appropriate for the experimental positive-bias conditions. We find that under these conditions the STM tends to image the undercoordinated Ti atoms, in spite of the physical protrusion of the O atoms, giving an apparent reversal of topographic contrast on the stoichiometric 1x1 or missing-row 2x1 surface. We also show that both the interpretation of STM images and the direct comparison of surface energies favor an added-row structure over the missing-row structure for the oxygen-deficient 2x1 surface.Comment: 6 pages, two-column style with 5 postscript figures embedded. Uses REVTEX and epsf macros. Also available at http://www.physics.rutgers.edu/~dhv/preprints/index.html#ng_tio

Weak decays of 4He-Lambda

We measured the lifetime and the mesonic and non-mesonic decay rates of the 4He-Lambda hypernucleus. The hypernuclei were created using a 750 MeV/c momentum K- beam on a liquid 4He target by the reaction 4He(K-,pi-)4He-Lambda. The 4He-Lambda lifetime was directly measured using protons from Lambda p -> n p non-mesonic decay (also referred to as proton-stimulated decay) and was found to have a value of tau = 245 +/- 24 ps. The mesonic decay rates were determined from the observed numbers of pi-'s and pi0's as Gamma_pi-/Gamma_tot = 0.270 +/- 0.024 and Gamma_pi0/Gamma_tot = 0.564 +/- 0.036, respectively, and the values of the proton- and neutron-stimulated decay rates were extracted as Gamma_p/Gamma_tot = 0.169 +/- 0.019 and Gamma_n/Gamma_tot <= 0.032 (95% CL), respectively. The effects of final-state interactions and possible 3-body Lambda N N decay contributions were studied in the context of a simple model of nucleon-stimulated decay. Nucleon-nucleon coincidence events were observed and were used in the determination of the non-mesonic branching fractions. The implications of the results of this analysis were considered for the empirical Delta I = 1/2 rule and the decay rates of the 4H-Lambda hypernucleus.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, published in PRC, revised content to match published versio

Business cycles, international trade and capital flows: Evidence from Latin America

This paper adopts a flexible framework to assess both short- and long-run business cycle linkages between six Latin American (LA) countries and the four largest economies in the world (namely the US, the Euro area, Japan and China) over the period 1980:I-2011:IV. The result indicate that within the LA region there are considerable differences between countries, success stories coexisting with extremely vulnerable economies. They also show that the LA region as a whole is largely dependent on external developments, especially in the years after the great recession of 2008 and 2009. The trade channel appears to be the most important source of business cycle comovement, whilst capital flows are found to have a limited role, especially in the very short run

Multiple shifts and fractional integration in the us and uk unemployment rates

This paper analyses the long-run behaviour of the US and UK unemployment rates by testing for possibly fractional orders of integration and multiple shifts using a sample of over 100 annual observations. The results show that the orders of integration are higher than 0 in both series, which implies long memory. If we assume that the underlying disturbances are white noise, the values are higher than 0.5, i.e., nonstationary. However, if the disturbances are autocorrelated, the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0.5), implying stationarity and mean-reverting behaviour. Moreover, when multiple shifts are taken into account, unemployment is more persistent in the US than in the UK, implying the need for stronger policy action in the former to bring unemployment back to its original level

Au/TiO2(110) interfacial reconstruction stability from ab initio

We determine the stability and properties of interfaces of low-index Au surfaces adhered to TiO2(110), using density functional theory energy density calculations. We consider Au(100) and Au(111) epitaxies on rutile TiO2(110) surface, as observed in experiments. For each epitaxy, we consider several different interfaces: Au(111)//TiO2(110) and Au(100)//TiO2(110), with and without bridging oxygen, Au(111) on 1x2 added-row TiO2(110) reconstruction, and Au(111) on a proposed 1x2 TiO reconstruction. The density functional theory energy density method computes the energy changes on each of the atoms while forming the interface, and evaluates the work of adhesion to determine the equilibrium interfacial structure.Comment: 20 pages, 11 figure

Non-stoichiometric oxide and metal interfaces and reactions

We have employed a combination of experimental surface science techniques and density functional calculations to study the reduction of TiO2(110) surfaces through the doping with submonolayer transition metals. We concentrate on the role of Ti adatoms in self doping of rutile and contrast the behaviour to that of Cr. DFT+U calculations enable identification of probable adsorption structures and their spectroscopic characteristics. Adsorption of both metals leads to a broken symmetry and an asymmetric charge transfer localised around the defect site of a mixed localised/delocalised character. Charge transfer creates defect states with Ti 3d character in the band gap at similar to 1-eV binding energy. Cr adsorption, however, leads to a very large shift in the valence-band edge to higher binding energy and the creation of Cr 3d states at 2.8-eV binding energy. Low-temperature oxidation lifts the Ti-derived band-gap states and modifies the intensity of the Cr features, indicative of a change of oxidation state from Cr3+ to Cr4+. Higher temperature processing leads to a loss of Cr from the surface region, indicative of its substitution into the bulk