Identifying prognostic indicators for electrical treeing in solid insulation through pulse sequence analysis

Predictive maintenance attempts to evaluate the condition of equipment and predict the future trend of the equipment's aging, in order to reduce costs when compared to the two traditional approaches: corrective and preventive maintenance. This prediction requires an accurate prognostic model of aging. In solid insulation, the ultimate goal of prognostics is to predict the advent of failure, i.e., insulation breakdown, in terms of remaining useful life (RUL). One fault is electrical treeing, which is progressive thus leading to potentially catastrophic failure. Research has shown that diagnosis of faults can be achieved based on partial discharge (PD) monitoring [1], i.e., phase-resolved and pulse sequence analysis (PSA). This work will explore the extension of this concept towards predicting evolution of the defect: moving beyond diagnostics towards prognostics. To do this, there is a need for further investigation of prognostic features within PD characteristics leading up to breakdown. In this work, a needle-plane test arrangement was set up using a hypodermic needle and pre-formed silicone rubber as test samples. The visual observations and tree growth measurements were made using a digital microscope. PD data was captured using a radio frequency (RF) sensor and analysed using PSA. The main idea of the PSA approach is the strong relationship between two consecutive pulses caused by PD activities, which can give an understanding of the local degradation processes [1]. As for electrical treeing, a breakdown indicator in PSA is the appearance of heavily clustered data points that lie diagonally in scatter plots of the differential ratio of voltage and time of consecutive charges (Un = Δun/Δtn) [2,3]. Figure 1 shows an example of a plot that changed to a diagonal line after 14 hours of aging time. This paper investigates the formation of the diagonal line based on the distribution of the plot from the start of electrical treeing until breakdown occurs. Finally, statistical features of the PSA plot are given and will be used for lifetime prediction of insulation samples in future work

Deep neural networks for understanding and diagnosing partial discharge data

Artificial neural networks have been investigated for many years as a technique for automated diagnosis of defects causing partial discharge (PD). While good levels of accuracy have been reported, disadvantages include the difficulty of explaining results, and the need to hand-craft appropriate features for standard two-layer networks. Recent advances in the design and training of deep neural networks, which contain more than two layers of hidden neurons, have resulted in improved results in speech and image recognition tasks. This paper investigates the use of deep neural networks for PD diagnosis. Defect samples constructed in mineral oil were used to generate data for training and testing. The paper demonstrates the improvements in accuracy and visualization of learning which can be gained from deep learning

Supporting group maintenance through prognostics-enhanced dynamic dependability prediction

Condition-based maintenance strategies adapt maintenance planning through the integration of online condition monitoring of assets. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of these strategies can be improved by integrating prognostics predictions and grouping maintenance actions respectively. In complex industrial systems, however, effective condition-based maintenance is intricate. Such systems are comprised of repairable assets which can fail in different ways, with various effects, and typically governed by dynamics which include time-dependent and conditional events. In this context, system reliability prediction is complex and effective maintenance planning is virtually impossible prior to system deployment and hard even in the case of condition-based maintenance. Addressing these issues, this paper presents an online system maintenance method that takes into account the system dynamics. The method employs an online predictive diagnosis algorithm to distinguish between critical and non-critical assets. A prognostics-updated method for predicting the system health is then employed to yield well-informed, more accurate, condition-based suggestions for the maintenance of critical assets and for the group-based reactive repair of non-critical assets. The cost-effectiveness of the approach is discussed in a case study from the power industry

Learning models of plant behavior for anomaly detection and condition monitoring

Providing engineers and asset managers with a too] which can diagnose faults within transformers can greatly assist decision making on such issues as maintenance, performance and safety. However, the onus has always been on personnel to accurately decide how serious a problem is and how urgently maintenance is required. In dealing with the large volumes of data involved, it is possible that faults may not be noticed until serious damage has occurred. This paper proposes the integration of a newly developed anomaly detection technique with an existing diagnosis system. By learning a Hidden Markov Model of healthy transformer behavior, unexpected operation, such as when a fault develops, can be flagged for attention. Faults can then be diagnosed using the existing system and maintenance scheduled as required, all at a much earlier stage than would previously have been possible

On the use of probabilistic model-checking for the verification of prognostics applications

Prognostics aims to improve asset availability through intelligent maintenance actions. Up-to-date remaining useful life predictions enable the optimization of maintenance planning. Verification of prognostics techniques aims to analyze if the prognostics application meets the design requirements. Online prognostics applications depend on the data-gathering hardware architecture to perform correct prognostics predictions. Accordingly, when verifying prognostics requirements compliance, it is necessary to include the effect of hardware failures on prognostics predictions. In this paper we investigate the use of formal verification techniques for the integrated verification of prognostics applications including hardware and software components. Focusing on the probabilistic model-checking approach, a case study from the power industry shows the validity of the proposed framework

ADEPS: a methodology for designing prognostic applications

Prognostics applications predict the future evolution of an asset under study, by diagnosing the actual health state and modeling the future degradation. Due to rapidly growing interest in prognostics, different prediction techniques have been developed independently without a consistent and systematic design. In this paper we formalize the prognostics design process with a novel methodology entitled ADEPS (Assisted Design for Engineering Prognostic Systems). ADEPS combines prognostics concepts with model-based safety assessment, criticality analysis, knowledge engineering and formal verification approaches. The main activities of ADEPS include synthesis of the safety assessment model from the design model, prioritization of the system failure modes, systematic prognostics model selection and verification of the adequacy of the prognostics results with respect to design requirements. By linking system-level safety assessment models and prognostics results, design and safety models are updated with online information about different failure modes. This step enables system-level health assessment including prognostics predictions of different failure modes. The end-to-end application of the methodology for the design and evaluation of a power transformer demonstrates the benefits of the proposed approach including reduced design time and effort, complete consideration of prognostics algorithms and updated system-level health assessment

Prognostics of transformer paper insulation using statistical particle filtering of on-line data

Prognostics of transformer remaining life can be achieved through a statistical technique called particle filtering, which gives a more accurate prediction than standard methods by quantifying sources of uncertainty

Wave height forecasting to improve off-shore access and maintenance scheduling

This paper presents research into modelling and predicting wave heights based on historical data. Wave height is one of the key criteria for allowing access to off-shore wind turbines for maintenance. Better tools for predicting wave height will allow more accurate identification of suitable “weather windows” in which access vessels can be dispatched to site. This in turn improves the ability to schedule maintenance, reducing costs related to vessel dispatch and recall due to unexpected wave patterns. The paper outlines the data available for wave height modelling. Through data mining, different modelling approaches are identified and compared. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach, and their accuracies for a given site implementation, are discussed

Optimisation of the bidding strategy for wind power trading

The optimal bidding strategy for trading electricity from a wind farm is not always clear. This paper outlines a method for predicting whether the market will be long or short and uses this information to select the best quantile regression for the current market conditions. Results from a simulation with a 2.5MW turbine produced a savings of over £2,000 compared to using only a P50 forecaster