Effects of the 6th September 2002 earthquake: damage amplification in the south-eastern sector of Palermo explained by GIS technology

During the 6th September 2002 earthquake the highest damage level in Palermo was observed in the SE sector. This is a recent urbanization area where reinforced concrete structures predominate. A detailed analysis of soil properties in Palermo was carried out by City-GIS to investigate a possible role of nearsurface geology on earthquake effects. City-GIS is a tool dedicated to natural hazard evaluation in urban areas. The availability of high density of well log data (stratigraphic and geotechnical) allowed a realistic modeling of surface geology and physical-mechanical properties that control the seismic response. In wide zones of the above mentioned sector of Palermo, outcropping terrains are composed of thin calcarenite layers, lying above remarkably thick siltyclayey sands that overlay the Numidian Flysch, commonly considered the bedrock of Quaternary sediments. Since silty-clayey sands feature greater deformability properties (Young's modulus) and smaller resistance properties (undrained cohesion and shear resistance angle) than Numidian Flysch, these zones of the SE sector exhibit high values of the acoustic impedance contrast. Moreover, a quite wide portion of the study area, crossed by the Oreto River, is characterized by very thick alluvial deposits. Here, the significant lateral variations of the lithostratigraphic geometry may be an additional cause of strong site effects

Output, Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Explicit modelling of factor markets clarifies two fundamental aspects of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). First, we clarify the relationship between output and marginal cost. Second, for the NKPC in inflation-output space, we identify the key stochastic influences on inflation without recourse to ad hoc cost or excess demand shocks. The econometric implementation of this clarified NKPC, based on Campbell (1987), allows us jointly to derive inflation as a forecast of future variables and infer the degree of price stickiness in real-world data. Our approach clarifies the empirical successes and failures of the NKPC

Can the shadow economy undermine the effect of political stability on inflation? empirical evidence

This paper revisits the empirical relationship between political stability and inflation while explicitly accounting for the presence of the shadow economy. Using a large data set of 122 countries over the 1999 to 2007 period, we find that the well established negative correlation between political stability and inflation holds only if the size of the shadow economy remains modest; and it ceases to exist at higher levels of the size of the informal sector. This finding contributes to the existing literature on public finance that assigns special importance to political determinants of inflation. The results are robust against alternative specifications and satisfy the usual assumptions of a valid statistical inference