637 research outputs found
Confidence Cycles
We provide a model that rationalizes variations in confidence of rational agents, both in the time-series and the cross-section. Combining horizon-dependent risk aversion (“anxiety”) and selective memory, we show that over- and underconfidence can arise in the Bayesian equilibrium of an intra-personal game. In
the time-series, overconfidence is more prevalent when actual risk levels are high, while underconfidence occurs when risks are low. In the cross-section, more anxious agents are more prone to biased confidence and their beliefs fluctuate more, leading them to buy in booms and sell in crashes. Lastly, fluctuations in confidence can amplify boom-bust cycles
Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion and the Timing and Pricing of Uncertainty
We address two fundamental critiques of established asset pricing models: that they (1) require a controversial degree of preference for early resolution of uncertainty; and (2) do not match the
term structures of risk premia observed in the data. Inspired by experimental evidence, we construct preferences in which risk aversion decreases with the temporal horizon. The resulting
model implies term structures of risk premia consistent with the evidence, including timevariations and reversals in the slope, without imposing a particular preference for early or late
resolutions of uncertainty or compromising on the ability to match standard moments in the returns distributions
Field theoretic approach to the counting problem of Hamiltonian cycles of graphs
A Hamiltonian cycle of a graph is a closed path that visits each site once
and only once. I study a field theoretic representation for the number of
Hamiltonian cycles for arbitrary graphs. By integrating out quadratic
fluctuations around the saddle point, one obtains an estimate for the number
which reflects characteristics of graphs well. The accuracy of the estimate is
verified by applying it to 2d square lattices with various boundary conditions.
This is the first example of extracting meaningful information from the
quadratic approximation to the field theory representation.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, uses epsf.sty. Estimates for the site entropy and
the gamma exponent indicated explicitl
Theory of Adsorption and Surfactant Effect of Sb on Ag (111)
We present first-principles studies of the adsorption of Sb and Ag on clean
and Sb-covered Ag (111). For Sb, the {\it substitutional} adsorption site is
found to be greatly favored with respect to on-surface fcc sites and to
subsurface sites, so that a segregating surface alloy layer is formed. Adsorbed
silver adatoms are more strongly bound on clean Ag(111) than on Sb-covered Ag.
We propose that the experimentally reported surfactant effect of Sb is due to
Sb adsorbates reducing the Ag adatom mobility. This gives rise to a high
density of Ag islands which coalesce into regular layers.Comment: RevTeX 3.0, 11 pages, 0 figures] 13 July 199
The structure ofAl(111)-K−(√3 × √3)R30° determined by LEED: stable and metastable adsorption sites
It is found that the adsorption of potassium on Al(111) at 90 K and at 300 K both result in a (√3 × √3)R0° structure. Through a detailed LEED analysis it is revealed that at 300 K the adatoms occupy substitutional sites and at 90 K the adatoms occupy on-top sites; both geometries have hitherto been considered as very unusual. The relationship between bond length and coordination is discussed with respect to the present results, and with respect to other quantitative studies of alkali-metal/metal adsorption systems
Hamiltonian walks on Sierpinski and n-simplex fractals
We study Hamiltonian walks (HWs) on Sierpinski and --simplex fractals. Via
numerical analysis of exact recursion relations for the number of HWs we
calculate the connectivity constant and find the asymptotic behaviour
of the number of HWs. Depending on whether or not the polymer collapse
transition is possible on a studied lattice, different scaling relations for
the number of HWs are obtained. These relations are in general different from
the well-known form characteristic of homogeneous lattices which has thus far
been assumed to hold for fractal lattices too.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures; final versio
The Generation of Fullerenes
We describe an efficient new algorithm for the generation of fullerenes. Our
implementation of this algorithm is more than 3.5 times faster than the
previously fastest generator for fullerenes -- fullgen -- and the first program
since fullgen to be useful for more than 100 vertices. We also note a
programming error in fullgen that caused problems for 136 or more vertices. We
tabulate the numbers of fullerenes and IPR fullerenes up to 400 vertices. We
also check up to 316 vertices a conjecture of Barnette that cubic planar graphs
with maximum face size 6 are hamiltonian and verify that the smallest
counterexample to the spiral conjecture has 380 vertices.Comment: 21 pages; added a not
Exact Results for Hamiltonian Walks from the Solution of the Fully Packed Loop Model on the Honeycomb Lattice
We derive the nested Bethe Ansatz solution of the fully packed O() loop
model on the honeycomb lattice. From this solution we derive the bulk free
energy per site along with the central charge and geometric scaling dimensions
describing the critical behaviour. In the limit we obtain the exact
compact exponents and for Hamiltonian walks, along with
the exact value for the connective constant
(entropy). Although having sets of scaling dimensions in common, our results
indicate that Hamiltonian walks on the honeycomb and Manhattan lattices lie in
different universality classes.Comment: 12 pages, RevTeX, 3 figures supplied on request, ANU preprint
MRR-050-9
Loop Model with Generalized Fugacity in Three Dimensions
A statistical model of loops on the three-dimensional lattice is proposed and
is investigated. It is O(n)-type but has loop fugacity that depends on global
three-dimensional shapes of loops in a particular fashion. It is shown that,
despite this non-locality and the dimensionality, a layer-to-layer transfer
matrix can be constructed as a product of local vertex weights for infinitely
many points in the parameter space. Using this transfer matrix, the site
entropy is estimated numerically in the fully packed limit.Comment: 16pages, 4 eps figures, (v2) typos and Table 3 corrected. Refs added,
(v3) an error in an explanation of fig.2 corrected. Refs added. (v4) Changes
in the presentatio
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