Black swans or dragon kings? A simple test for deviations from the power law

We develop a simple test for deviations from power law tails, which is based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function. We use this test to answer the question whether great natural disasters, financial crashes or electricity price spikes should be classified as dragon kings or 'only' as black swans

Range of motion and between-measurement variation of spinal kinematics in sound horses at trot on the straight line and on the lunge

Clinical assessment of spinal motion in horses is part of many routine clinical exams but remains highly subjective. A prerequisite for the quantification of spinal motion is the assessment of the expected normal range of motion and variability of back kinematics. The aim of this study was to objectively quantify spinal kinematics and between-measurement,-surface and-day variation in owner-sound horses. In an observational study, twelve ownersound horses were trotted 12 times on four different paths (hard/soft straight line, soft lunge left and right). Measurements were divided over three days, with five repetitions on day one and two, and two repetitions on day three (recheck) which occurred 28-55 days later. Optical motion capture was used to collect kinematic data. Elements of the outcome were: 1) Ranges of Motion (ROM) with confidence intervals per path and surface, 2) a variability model to calculate between-measurement variation and test the effect of time, surface and path, 3) intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) to determine repeatability. ROM was lowest on the hard straight line. Cervical lateral bending was doubled on the left compared to the right lunge. Mean variation for the flexion-extension and lateral bending of the whole back were 0.8 and 1 degrees. Pelvic motion showed a variation of 1.0 (pitch), 0.7 (yaw) and 1.3 (roll) degrees. For these five parameters, a tendency for more variation on the hard surface and reduced variation with increased repetitions was observed. More variation was seen on the recheck (p<0.001). ICC values for pelvic rotations were between 0.76 and 0.93, for the whole back flexion-extension and lateral bending between 0.51 and 0.91. Between-horse variation was substantially higher than within-horse variation. In conclusion, ROM and variation in spinal biomechanics are horse-specific and small, necessitating individual analysis and making subjective and objective clinical assessment of spinal kinematics challenging

Europeana: What Users Search For and Why

People use digital cultural heritage sites in different ways and for various purposes. In this paper we explore what information people search for and why when using Europeana, one of the world’s largest aggregators of cultural heritage. We gathered a probability sample of 240 search requests from users via an online survey and used qualitative content analysis complemented with Shatford-Panofsky’s mode/facet analysis for analysing requests to visual archives to investigate the following: (i) the broad type of search task; (ii) the subject content of searches; and (iii) motives for searching and uses of the information found. Results highlight the rich diversity of searches conducted using Europeana. Contributions include: collection and analysis of a comprehensive sample of Europeana search requests, a scheme for categorising information use, and deeper insights into the users and uses of Europeana

Withers vertical movement asymmetry in dressage horses walking in different head -neck positions with and without riders

The superimposed influences of different head and neck positions (HNPs) and rider effects on symmetry in sound horses have not been studied. Our aim was to investigate the effects of HNPs and rider on thesymmetry in minimum height of the withers at the walk. Seven high-level dressage horses were studied with and without rider in six HNPs: HNP1, free position; HNP2, dressage competition position; HNP3,flexed poll position; HNP4, over-flexed position; HNP5, extended raised position; and HNP6, forward downward position. Kinematic and vertical ground reaction force data were recorded during 15 s trialson an instrumented treadmill. In mixed models, difference in the minimal height of the withers in earlyleft vs right forelimb stance was modelled as dependent variable. The more restricted HNP3 (T-values2.62 to 1.98, 118 DF,P¼0.001 to<0.05) and HNP5 (P¼0.002 to<0.05) were generally less symmetrical while unridden and more symmetrical while ridden, compared with the free (HNP1) or forward downward (HNP6) positions. Both with and without rider, when the withers dropped lower in earlystance of one forelimb, this was associated with shorter protraction at the start of stance in the ipsilateral hind limb, and shorter stance overlaps between this hind limb and the other limbs during diagonalsupport, 3-limb support with two forelimbs and one hind limb, and ipsilateral support. HNP effects on withers movement asymmetry differed between unridden and ridden conditions. The considerablevariation between horses stresses the need for trainers to use individualized training programs to address horse asymmetry

Visual lameness assessment in comparison to quantitative gait analysis data in horses

Background Quantitative gait analysis offers objective information to support clinical decision-making during lameness workups including advantages in terms of documentation, communication, education, and avoidance of expectation bias. Nevertheless, hardly any data exist comparing outcome of subjective scoring with the output of objective gait analysis systems. Objectives To investigate between- and within-veterinarian agreement on primary lame limb and lameness grade, and to determine relationships between subjective lameness grade and quantitative data, focusing on differences between (1) veterinarians, (2) live vs video assessment, (3) baseline assessment vs assessment following diagnostic analgesia. Study design Clinical observational study. Methods Kinematic data were compared to subjective lameness assessment by clinicians with >= 8 years of orthopaedic experience. Subjective assessments and kinematic data for baseline trot-ups and response to 48 diagnostic analgesia interventions in 23 cases were included. Between and within-veterinarian agreement was investigated using Cohen's Kappa (kappa). Asymmetry parameters for kinematic data ('forelimb lame pattern', 'hindlimb lame pattern', 'overall symmetry', 'vector sum head', 'pelvic sum') were determined, and used as outcome variables in mixed models; explanatory variables were subjective lameness grade and its interaction with (1) veterinarian, (2) live or video evaluation and (3) baseline or diagnostic analgesia assessment. Results Agreement on lame limb between live and video assessment was 'good' between and within veterinarians (median kappa = 0.64 and kappa = 0.53). There was a positive correlation between subjective scoring and measured asymmetry. The relationship between lameness grade and objective asymmetry differed slightly between (1) veterinarians (for all combined parameters, p-values between P < .001 and 0.04), (2) between live and video assessments ('forelimb lame pattern', 'overall symmetry', both P <= .001), and (3) between baseline and diagnostic analgesia assessment (all combined parameters, between P < .001 and .007). Main limitations Limited number of veterinarians (n = 4) and cases (n = 23), only straight-line soft surface data, different number of subjective assessments live vs from video. Conclusions Overall, between- and within-veterinarian agreement on lame limb was 'good', whereas agreement on lameness grade was 'acceptable' to 'poor'. Quantitative data and subjective assessments correlated well, with minor though significant differences in the number of millimetres, equivalent to one lameness grade between veterinarians, and between assessment conditions. Differences between baseline assessment vs assessment following diagnostic analgesia suggest that addition of objective data can be beneficial to reduce expectation bias. The small differences between live and video assessments support the use of high-quality videos for documentation, communication, and education, thus, complementing objective gait analysis data

Adaptation strategies of horses with induced forelimb lameness walking on a treadmill

Background There is a paucity of research describing the gait pattern of lame horses at the walk. Objectives To describe the changes in motion pattern and vertical ground reaction forces (GRFz) in horses with induced forelimb lameness at the walk and compare those changes with the changes observed at the trot. Study design Experimental study. Methods In 10 clinically sound Warmblood horses, moderate forelimb lameness was induced using a sole pressure model followed by trot and walk on a treadmill. Kinematic data were collected using 3D optical motion capture (OMC), and GRFz by an instrumented treadmill. Mixed models were used to compare sound baseline versus forelimb lameness (significance was set atP < .05). Results Lameness induction significantly reduced peak GRFz on the second force peak, and vertical impulse in the lame limb. Stride and stance duration in all limbs were reduced. Lameness significantly affected the vertical movement symmetry of the head and withers. Maximum limb retraction angle, fetlock extension and protraction speed were reduced in the lame limb. Body centre of mass (COM) translation was reduced in the side-to-side direction and increased in the vertical and fore-aft directions. Several compensatory kinetic and kinematic changes were observed in the nonlame limbs. The observed changes in both kinetics and kinematics were generally smaller at walk with fewer variables being affected, compared to the trot. Main limitations Only one degree and type of orthopaedic pain (sole pressure) was studied. Conclusions Compensatory strategies of forelimb lameness at the walk include alteration of several kinetic and kinematic parameters and have some specific patterns and inter-individual differences that are not seen at the trot. However, much like at the trot, head movement and forelimb vertical force symmetry seem to be the most useful parameters to detect forelimb lameness at walk

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normally distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalised assumption of normally distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to model distribution tails properly so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey in 2000 and combine GARCH-type models with the extreme value theory to estimate the tails of three financial index returns ¿ S&P 500, FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 ¿ representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are more accurate than those from conventional GARCH models assuming normal or Student¿s t distribution innovations when doing not only in-sample but also out-of-sample estimation. Moreover, these results are robust to alternative GARCH model specifications. The findings of this paper should be useful to investors in general, since their goal is to be able to forecast unforeseen price movements and take advantage of them by positioning themselves in the market according to these predictions

Withers vertical movement symmetry is useful for locating the primary lame limb in naturally occurring lameness

BackgroundDuring orthopaedic assessment of lame horses, a head nod is commonly present in both primary forelimb and hindlimb lame horses. Additional motion metrics that could assist clinicians in correctly differentiating between these two scenarios would be of great clinical value. ObjectivesThe primary objective of this study was to examine whether withers movement asymmetry can be used in a clinical setting to distinguish primary forelimb lameness from compensatory head movement asymmetry due to primary hindlimb lameness. Study designRetrospective, multicentre study. MethodsMovement asymmetry of head, withers and pelvis was measured using multi-camera optical motion capture, as part of routine lameness investigations at four European equine hospitals. Vertical movement asymmetry parameters from 317 horses trotting in a straight line were compared before and after successful diagnostic analgesia of a single limb. Descriptive statistics, t-tests and linear models were used to analyse the data. ResultsIn forelimb lame horses, 80%-81% showed head and withers asymmetry both indicating lameness in the same forelimb. In hindlimb lame horses, 69%-72% showed head asymmetry ipsilateral to the lame hindlimb and withers asymmetry diagonal to the lame hindlimb, thus, head and withers asymmetry indicated lameness in different forelimbs. A large (>15 mm) compensatory head nod was seen in 28%-31% of the hindlimb lame horses. In 89%-92% of these, head and withers asymmetry indicated lameness in different forelimbs. Withers asymmetry decreased linearly with reduced head or pelvic asymmetry for both forelimb and hindlimb lame horses. Main limitationsCompensatory strategies were evaluated on group level to identify common patterns, potentially ignoring uncommon individual strategies. ConclusionsWithers vertical movement asymmetry metrics can be useful in helping to locate the primary lame limb during quantitative lameness assessment. Head and withers movement asymmetry parameters generally indicate the same forelimb in forelimb lame horses, but different forelimbs in hindlimb lame horses