Share prices, house prices and monetary policy

Recent developments in stock and house prices revived the debate on the role of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy. The article first explores the links between asset price fluctuations, macroeconomic developments and monetary policy, highlighting the possibility of asset price booms and bursts in an environment of stable consumer prices and the challenges for monetary policy. The problem of identification of “bubbles” is then illustrated by an assessment of recent developments in stock prices in the United States and the euro area and in house prices in the euro area, with special attention for the fast-increasing house prices in some countries and for the Belgian situation. Finally, the article briefly explains how asset prices are taken into account in the monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem.monetary policy, transmission process, stock prices, residential property prices, Eurosystem

Universality of ac-conduction in anisotropic disordered systems: An effective medium approximation study

Anisotropic disordered system are studied in this work within the random barrier model. In such systems the transition probabilities in different directions have different probability density functions. The frequency-dependent conductivity at low temperatures is obtained using an effective medium approximation. It is shown that the isotropic universal ac-conduction law, $\sigma \ln \sigma=u$, is recovered if properly scaled conductivity ($\sigma$) and frequency ($u$) variables are used.Comment: 5 pages, no figures, final form (with corrected equations

Density results for automorphic forms on Hilbert modular groups

We give density results for automorphic representations of Hilbert modular groups. In particular, we show that there are infinitely many automorphic representations that have a prescribed discrete series factor at some (but not all) real places.Comment: 35 pages, LaTe

Modelling water-harvesting systems in the arid south of Tunisia using SWAT

In many arid countries, runoff water-harvesting systems support the livelihood of the rural population. Little is known, however, about the effect of these systems on the water balance components of arid watersheds. The objective of this study was to adapt and evaluate the GIS-based watershed model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) for simulating the main hydrologic processes in arid environments. The model was applied to the 270-km(2) watershed of wadi Koutine in southeast Tunisia, which receives about 200 mm annual rain. The main adjustment for adapting the model to this dry Mediterranean environment was the inclusion of water-harvesting systems, which capture and use surface runoff for crop production in upstream subbasins, and a modification of the crop growth processes. The adjusted version of the model was named SWAT-WH. Model evaluation was performed based on 38 runoff events recorded at the Koutine station between 1973 and 1985. The model predicted that the average annual watershed rainfall of the 12-year evaluation period (209 mm) was split into ET (72%), groundwater recharge (22%) and outflow (6%). The evaluation coefficients for calibration and validation were, respectively, R-2 (coefficient of determination) 0.77 and 0.44; E (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient) 0.73 and 0.43; and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) 2.6 mm and 3.0 mm, indicating that the model could reproduce the observed events reasonably well. However, the runoff record was dominated by two extreme events, which had a strong effect on the evaluation criteria. Discrepancies remained mainly due to uncertainties in the observed daily rainfall and runoff data. Recommendations for future research include the installation of additional rainfall and runoff gauges with continuous data logging and the collection of more field data to represent the soils and land use. In addition, crop growth and yield monitoring is needed for a proper evaluation of crop production, to allow an economic assessment of the different water uses in the watershed

Involvement of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis and its interaction with the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis in the ontogeny of avian thermoregulation: a review

The emergence of thermoregulation in avian species is a complex matter in which neural as well as hormonal processes are involved. In a previous paper, the neural aspects of primary avian thermoregulation were discussed. In this paper the role of the hypothalamus-pituitary-thyroid axis (HPT-axis) and the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis (HPA-axis) in the ontogeny of avian thermoregulation is evaluated. The regulatory mechanisms and different important hormones of both axes, which have stimulatory or inhibitory effects, are discussed. Because the onset of functionality of the thermoregulatory system is of great interest, the ontogeny and functionality of the hormonal axes are clarified. There is a great difference between precocial and altricial birds in hormonal events as well as in neural processes which are involved in the emergence of thermoregulation. In precocial avian species the HPT-axis becomes functional during the mid- to late embryonic period while the same axis only becomes fully functional during the first week post-hatch in altricial avian species. As early as the sixties, the emergence of homeothermy in chickens was investigated. It was concluded that the thyroid gland plays an important role in the thermoregulatory mechanisms of newly hatched chicks. More recent studies however were not able to show any direct effect of the thyroid hormones on the thermoregulation of day-old chicks, although blocking the conversion of T4 to T3 caused a decrease in body temperature in young chicks. Thyrotropin releasing hormone (TRH) is known to act in thermoregulation in mammals and several authors have found an effect of TRH on the metabolism of young and older chicks. However, the exact mechanism still remains unclear. Because the HPT- and the HPA-axis show close relationships, the role of the HPA-axis in the ontogeny of thermoregulation is also taken into consideration in this review. In mammals as well as in birds, corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH) is involved in the primary thermoregulation. We conclude that the HPT-axis has an important role in the ontogeny of avian thermoregulation. The exact role of the HPA-axis remains largely unclear although at least CRH is definitely of some importance

Factors Influencing Pika Foraging Behavior in the North Cascades National Park Service Complex, Washington

The American pika (Ochotona princeps) is a small lagomorph restricted to talus slopes at higher elevations or latitudes throughout mountainous regions in western North America. Pikas respond to seasonal fluctuations in food availability by haying, i.e., storing, vegetation for use during winter, and are considered a climate change indicator species because of their sensitivity to heat and restricted habitat requirements. Prior to 2009, no data existed on pika populations or foraging behavior in the North Cascades National Park Service Complex (NOCA) in Washington. To help address these data needs, we collected behavioral data on 95 foraging pikas throughout NOCA during summer 2009 and 2010 to better understand abiotic and biotic factors affecting foraging behavior and potential impacts of climate change on pikas. We calculated the proportion of time pikas spent grazing and haying, and developed competing hypotheses for each behavior expressed as logistic regression models consisting of climate, vegetation, elevation, date, and year covariates. We selected top models for both behaviors using information-theoretic techniques, and found that time spent grazing decreased while haying behavior increased through summer. Pikas spent more time haying as elevation increased while time spent grazing was negatively correlated with elevation, suggesting possible constraints in time available for foraging at higher elevations. Time spent grazing was also negatively correlated with temperature, a result likely in response to thermoregulation limitations of pikas. These results demonstrate how multiple factors may affect pika foraging behavior, thereby providing an opportunity to assist resource managers in future decisions regarding pika conservation

A Superlens Based on Metal-Dielectric Composites

Pure noble metals are typically considered to be the materials of choice for a near-field superlens that allows subwavelength resolution by recovering both propagating and evanescent waves. However, a superlens based on bulk metal can operate only at a single frequency for a given dielectric host. In this Letter, it is shown that a composite metal-dielectric film, with an appropriate metal filling factor, can operate at practically any desired wavelength in the visible and near-infrared ranges. Theoretical analysis and simulations verify the feasibility of the proposed lens.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure

The origin of carbon isotope vital effects in coccolith calcite

Calcite microfossils are widely used to study climate and oceanography in Earth’s geological past. Coccoliths, readily preserved calcite plates produced by a group of single-celled surface-ocean dwelling algae called coccolithophores, have formed a significant fraction of marine sediments since the Late Triassic. However, unlike the shells of foraminifera, their zooplankton counterparts, coccoliths remain underused in palaeo-reconstructions. Precipitated in an intracellular chemical and isotopic microenvironment, coccolith calcite exhibits large and enigmatic departures from the isotopic composition of abiogenic calcite, known as vital effects. Here we show that the calcification to carbon fixation ratio determines whether coccolith calcite is isotopically heavier or lighter than abiogenic calcite, and that the size of the deviation is determined by the degree of carbon utilization. We discuss the theoretical potential for, and current limitations of, coccolith-based CO2 paleobarometry, that may eventually facilitate use of the ubiquitous and geologically extensive sedimentary archive

Latitudinal Variation in Plankton Traits and Ecosystem Function

Planktonic ecosystems are usually modeled in terms of autotrophic and heterotrophic compartments. However, the trophic strategy of unicellular organisms can take a range of mixotrophic strategies with both autotrophic and heterotrophic contributions. The dominant emerging strategy found in nature depends on the environment (both biotic and abiotic aspects) and the cell size and influences key ecosystem functions like trophic transfer and carbon export. Ecosystem models that faithfully represent this diversity of trophic strategies are lacking. Here we develop a trait‐based model of unicellular plankton with cell size as the master trait and three other traits that determine trophic strategies: investments in photosynthesis, nutrient uptake, and phagotrophy. This unicellular model spans the entire auto‐ mixohererotrophic strategy continuum and the entire size range of unicellular organisms. The model reproduces observed latitudinal patterns in biomass, primary productivity, vertical carbon export, and energy transfer efficiency; all increase with increasing latitude. The size range of mixotrophic cells is independent of the season at low latitudes. At high latitudes, the dominance of pure phototrophs during early spring restricts mixotrophic behavior to a narrower range of cell sizes and with the occurrence of relatively smaller mixotrophs during summer. The model's ability to adapt to different environmental conditions, combined with its simple conceptual structure and low number of parameters and state variables(10),makes it ideally suited for global simulation studies under changing environmental conditions