The role of credibility in the relation between management forecasts and analyst forecasts in Japan

We explore the relation between management forecasts and analyst forecasts to determine whether a moderating role exists for credibility. Two types of credibility are examined: management credibility and analyst credibility. Management credibility is evaluated by management\u27s forecasting ability (based upon prior forecast outcomes) and the firm\u27s underlying Corporate Governance (CG) structure. Analyst credibility is assessed by their forecasting ability only, based upon prior forecast outcomes. Two questions are addressed by this study: (1) does management credibility moderate the relation between management\u27s initial forecasts and initial analyst forecasts? and, (2) is the relation between analyst forecasts and subsequent management forecast revisions moderated by analyst credibility

On the statistical mechanics of prion diseases

We simulate a two-dimensional, lattice based, protein-level statistical mechanical model for prion diseases (e.g., Mad Cow disease) with concommitant prion protein misfolding and aggregation. Our simulations lead us to the hypothesis that the observed broad incubation time distribution in epidemiological data reflect fluctuation dominated growth seeded by a few nanometer scale aggregates, while much narrower incubation time distributions for innoculated lab animals arise from statistical self averaging. We model `species barriers' to prion infection and assess a related treatment protocol.Comment: 5 Pages, 3 eps figures (submitted to Physical Review Letters

Quantitative Detection and Biological Propagation of Scrapie Seeding Activity In Vitro Facilitate Use of Prions as Model Pathogens for Disinfection

Prions are pathogens with an unusually high tolerance to inactivation and constitute a complex challenge to the re-processing of surgical instruments. On the other hand, however, they provide an informative paradigm which has been exploited successfully for the development of novel broad-range disinfectants simultaneously active also against bacteria, viruses and fungi. Here we report on the development of a methodological platform that further facilitates the use of scrapie prions as model pathogens for disinfection. We used specifically adapted serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA) for the quantitative detection, on steel wires providing model carriers for decontamination, of 263K scrapie seeding activity converting normal protease-sensitive into abnormal protease-resistant prion protein. Reference steel wires carrying defined amounts of scrapie infectivity were used for assay calibration, while scrapie-contaminated test steel wires were subjected to fifteen different procedures for disinfection that yielded scrapie titre reductions of ≤101- to ≥105.5-fold. As confirmed by titration in hamsters the residual scrapie infectivity on test wires could be reliably deduced for all examined disinfection procedures, from our quantitative seeding activity assay. Furthermore, we found that scrapie seeding activity present in 263K hamster brain homogenate or multiplied by PMCA of scrapie-contaminated steel wires both triggered accumulation of protease-resistant prion protein and was further propagated in a novel cell assay for 263K scrapie prions, i.e., cerebral glial cell cultures from hamsters. The findings from our PMCA- and glial cell culture assays revealed scrapie seeding activity as a biochemically and biologically replicative principle in vitro, with the former being quantitatively linked to prion infectivity detected on steel wires in vivo. When combined, our in vitro assays provide an alternative to titrations of biological scrapie infectivity in animals that substantially facilitates the use of prions as potentially highly indicative test agents in the search for novel broad-range disinfectants

Presence and Seeding Activity of Pathological Prion Protein (PrPTSE) in Skeletal Muscles of White-Tailed Deer Infected with Chronic Wasting Disease

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a contagious, rapidly spreading transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE), or prion disease, occurring in cervids such as white tailed-deer (WTD), mule deer or elk in North America. Despite efficient horizontal transmission of CWD among cervids natural transmission of the disease to other species has not yet been observed. Here, we report for the first time a direct biochemical demonstration of pathological prion protein PrPTSE and of PrPTSE-associated seeding activity, the static and dynamic biochemical markers for biological prion infectivity, respectively, in skeletal muscles of CWD-infected cervids, i. e. WTD for which no clinical signs of CWD had been recognized. The presence of PrPTSE was detected by Western- and postfixed frozen tissue blotting, while the seeding activity of PrPTSE was revealed by protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA). Semi-quantitative Western blotting indicated that the concentration of PrPTSE in skeletal muscles of CWD-infected WTD was approximately 2000-10000 -fold lower than in brain tissue. Tissue-blot-analyses revealed that PrPTSE was located in muscle-associated nerve fascicles but not, in detectable amounts, in myocytes. The presence and seeding activity of PrPTSE in skeletal muscle from CWD-infected cervids suggests prevention of such tissue in the human diet as a precautionary measure for food safety, pending on further clarification of whether CWD may be transmissible to humans

Preverbs: an introduction

The notion ‘preverb’ is a traditional descriptive notion in Indo-European linguistics. It refers to morphemes that appear in front of a verb, and which form a close semantic unit with that verb. In many cases, the morpheme that functions as a preverb can also function without a preverbal context, often as an adverb or an adposition. Most linguists use the notion ‘preverb’ as a cover term for preverbal words and preverbal prefixes. The preverb may be separated from the verb whilst retaining its close cohesion with the verb, which is called ‘tmesis’. It may also develop into a bound morpheme, that is, a prefix inseparable from the verb, with concomitant reduction of phonological form in some cases. If the preverb has become a real prefix, we may use the more specific notion of ‘complex verb’, whereas we take the notion ‘complex predicate’ to refer generally to multi-morphemic expressions with verbal valency. That is, we make a terminological distinction between complex predicates and complex verbs. The latter are multi-morphemic, but behave as single grammatical words

Foodborne transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy to nonhuman primates

Risk for human exposure to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)-inducing agent was estimated in a nonhuman primate model. To determine attack rates, incubation times, and molecular signatures, we orally exposed 18 macaques to 1 high dose of brain material from cattle with BSE. Several macaques were euthanized at regular intervals starting at 1 year postinoculation, and others were observed until clinical signs developed. Among those who received >5 g BSE-inducing agent, attack rates were 100% and prions could be detected in peripheral tissues from 1 year postinoculation onward. The overall median incubation time was 4.6 years (3.7-5.3). However, for 3 macaques orally exposed on multiple occasions, incubation periods were at least 7-10 years. Before clinical signs were noted, we detected a non-type 2B signature, indicating the existence of atypical prion protein during the incubation period. This finding could affect diagnosis of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans and might be relevant for retrospective studies of positive tonsillectomy or appendectomy specimens because time of infection is unknown

All clinically-relevant blood components transmit prion disease following a single blood transfusion: a sheep model of vCJD

Variant CJD (vCJD) is an incurable, infectious human disease, likely arising from the consumption of BSE-contaminated meat products. Whilst the epidemic appears to be waning, there is much concern that vCJD infection may be perpetuated in humans by the transfusion of contaminated blood products. Since 2004, several cases of transfusion-associated vCJD transmission have been reported and linked to blood collected from pre-clinically affected donors. Using an animal model in which the disease manifested resembles that of humans affected with vCJD, we examined which blood components used in human medicine are likely to pose the greatest risk of transmitting vCJD via transfusion. We collected two full units of blood from BSE-infected donor animals during the pre-clinical phase of infection. Using methods employed by transfusion services we prepared red cell concentrates, plasma and platelets units (including leucoreduced equivalents). Following transfusion, we showed that all components contain sufficient levels of infectivity to cause disease following only a single transfusion and also that leucoreduction did not prevent disease transmission. These data suggest that all blood components are vectors for prion disease transmission, and highlight the importance of multiple control measures to minimise the risk of human to human transmission of vCJD by blood transfusion

In Vivo Comparison of Two Human Norovirus Surrogates for Testing Ethanol-Based Handrubs: The Mouse Chasing the Cat!

Human noroviruses (HuNoV), a major cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide, cannot be readily cultured in the lab. Therefore, a feline calicivirus (FCV) is often used as its surrogate to, among other things, test alcohol-based handrubs (ABHR). The more recent laboratory culture of a mouse norovirus (MNV) provides an alternative. While MNV is closer to HuNoV in several respects, to date, no comparative testing of FCV and MNV survival and inactivation on human hands has been performed. This study was designed to address the knowledge gap. The rates of loss in viability during drying on hands were −1.91 and −1.65% per minute for FCV and MNV, respectively. When the contaminated skin was exposed for 20 s to either a commercial ABHR with 62% (v/v) ethanol or to 75% (v/v) ethanol in water, FCV infectivity was reduced by <1 log10 while that of MNV by nearly 2.8 log10. Extending the contact time to 30 s reduced the FCV titer by almost 2 log10 by both test substances and that of MNV by >3.5 log10 by the commercial ABHR while 75% ethanol did not show any noticeable improvement in activity as compared to the 20 s contact. An 80% (v/v) aqueous solution of ethanol gave only a 1.75 log10 reduction in MNV activity after 20 s. The results show significant differences in the ethanol susceptibility of FCV and MNV in contact times relevant to field use of ABHR and also that 62% ethanol was a more effective virucide than either 75% or 80% ethanol. These findings indicate the need for a review of the continuing use of FCV as a surrogate for HuNoV

A short purification process for quantitative isolation of PrP(Sc) from naturally occurring and experimental transmissible spongiform encephalopathies

BACKGROUND: Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are neurodegenerative diseases affecting both humans and animals. They are associated with post-translational conversion of the normal cellular prion protein (PrP(C)) into a heat- and protease-resistant abnormal isoform (PrP(Sc)). Detection of PrP(Sc) in individuals is widely utilized for the diagnosis of prion diseases. METHODS: TSE brain tissue samples have been processed in order to quantitatively isolate PrP(Sc). The protocol includes an initial homogenization, digestion with proteinase K and salt precipitation. RESULTS: Here we show that over 97 percent of the PrP(Sc) present can be precipitated from infected brain material using this simple salting-out procedure for proteins. No chemically harsh conditions are used during the process in order to conserve the native quality of the isolated protein. CONCLUSION: The resulting PrP(Sc)-enriched preparation should provide a suitable substrate for analyzing the structure of the prion agent and for scavenging for other molecules with which it may associate. In comparison with most methods that exist today, the one described in this study is rapid, cost-effective and does not demand expensive laboratory equipment