Shape-dependent universality in percolation

The shape-dependent universality of the excess percolation cluster number and cross-configuration probability on a torus is discussed. Besides the aspect ratio of the torus, the universality class depends upon the twist in the periodic boundary conditions, which for example are generally introduced when triangular lattices are used in simulations.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, to be published in Physica

Excess number of percolation clusters on the surface of a sphere

Monte Carlo simulations were performed in order to determine the excess number of clusters b and the average density of clusters n_c for the two-dimensional "Swiss cheese" continuum percolation model on a planar L x L system and on the surface of a sphere. The excess number of clusters for the L x L system was confirmed to be a universal quantity with a value b = 0.8841 as previously predicted and verified only for lattice percolation. The excess number of clusters on the surface of a sphere was found to have the value b = 1.215(1) for discs with the same coverage as the flat critical system. Finally, the average critical density of clusters was calculated for continuum systems n_c = 0.0408(1).Comment: 13 pages, 2 figure

Development and internal validation of prognostic models to predict negative health outcomes in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy in general practice

Background Polypharmacy interventions are resource-intensive and should be targeted to those at risk of negative health outcomes. Our aim was to develop and internally validate prognostic models to predict health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and the combined outcome of falls, hospitalisation, institutionalisation and nursing care needs, in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy in general practices. Methods Design: two independent data sets, one comprising health insurance claims data (n=592 456), the other data from the PRIoritising MUltimedication in Multimorbidity (PRIMUM) cluster randomised controlled trial (n=502). Population: >= 60 years, >= 5 drugs, >= 3 chronic diseases, excluding dementia. Outcomes: combined outcome of falls, hospitalisation, institutionalisation and nursing care needs (after 6, 9 and 24 months) (claims data); and HRQoL (after 6 and 9 months) (trial data). Predictor variables in both data sets: age, sex, morbidity-related variables (disease count), medication-related variables (European Union-Potentially Inappropriate Medication list (EU-PIM list)) and health service utilisation. Predictor variables exclusively in trial data: additional socio-demographics, morbidity-related variables (Cumulative Illness Rating Scale, depression), Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI), lifestyle, functional status and HRQoL (EuroQol EQ-5D-3L). Analysis: mixed regression models, combined with stepwise variable selection, 10-fold cross validation and sensitivity analyses. Results Most important predictors of EQ-5D-3L at 6 months in best model (Nagelkerke's R-2 0.507) were depressive symptoms (-2.73 (95% CI: -3.56 to -1.91)), MAI (-0.39 (95% CI: -0.7 to -0.08)), baseline EQ-5D-3L (0.55 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.64)). Models based on claims data and those predicting long-term outcomes based on both data sets produced low R-2 values. In claims data-based model with highest explanatory power (R-2=0.16), previous falls/fall-related injuries, previous hospitalisations, age, number of involved physicians and disease count were most important predictor variables. Conclusions Best trial data-based model predicted HRQoL after 6 months well and included parameters of well-being not found in claims. Performance of claims data-based models and models predicting long-term outcomes was relatively weak. For generalisability, future studies should refit models by considering parameters representing well-being and functional status

Universality of the excess number of clusters and the crossing probability function in three-dimensional percolation

Extensive Monte-Carlo simulations were performed to evaluate the excess number of clusters and the crossing probability function for three-dimensional percolation on the simple cubic (s.c.), face-centered cubic (f.c.c.), and body-centered cubic (b.c.c.) lattices. Systems L x L x L' with L' >> L were studied for both bond (s.c., f.c.c., b.c.c.) and site (f.c.c.) percolation. The excess number of clusters $\tilde {b}$ per unit length was confirmed to be a universal quantity with a value $\tilde {b} \approx 0.412$. Likewise, the critical crossing probability in the L' direction, with periodic boundary conditions in the L x L plane, was found to follow a universal exponential decay as a function of r = L'/L for large r. Simulations were also carried out to find new precise values of the critical thresholds for site percolation on the f.c.c. and b.c.c. lattices, yielding $p_c(f.c.c.)= 0.199 236 5 \pm 0.000 001 0$, $p_c(b.c.c.)= 0.245 961 5\pm 0.000 001 0$.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, LaTeX, submitted to J. Phys. A: Math. Gen, added references, corrected typo

Development and Integration of DOPS as Formative Tests in Head and Neck Ultrasound Education : Proof of Concept Study for Exploration of Perceptions

In Germany, progress assessments in head and neck ultrasonography training have been carried out mainly theoretically and lack standardisation. Thus, quality assurance and comparisons between certified courses from various course providers are difficult. This study aimed to develop and integrate a direct observation of procedural skills (DOPS) in head and neck ultrasound education and explore the perceptions of both participants and examiners. Five DOPS tests oriented towards assessing basic skills were developed for certified head and neck ultrasound courses on national standards. DOPS tests were completed by 76 participants from basic and advanced ultrasound courses (n = 168 documented DOPS tests) and evaluated using a 7-point Likert scale. Ten examiners performed and evaluated the DOPS after detailed training. The variables of “general aspects” (6.0 Scale Points (SP) vs. 5.9 SP; p = 0.71), “test atmosphere” (6.3 SP vs. 6.4 SP; p = 0.92), and “test task setting” (6.2 SP vs. 5.9 SP; p = 0.12) were positively evaluated by all participants and examiners. There were no significant differences between a basic and advanced course in relation to the overall results of DOPS tests (p = 0.81). Regardless of the courses, there were significant differences in the total number of points achieved between individual DOPS tests. DOPS tests are accepted by participants and examiners as an assessment tool in head and neck ultrasound education. In view of the trend toward “competence-based” teaching, this type of test format should be applied and validated in the future

A novel role of sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor S1pr1 in mouse thrombopoiesis

Millions of platelets are produced each hour by bone marrow (BM) megakaryocytes (MKs). MKs extend transendothelial proplatelet (PP) extensions into BM sinusoids and shed new platelets into the blood. The mechanisms that control platelet generation remain incompletely understood. Using conditional mutants and intravital multiphoton microscopy, we show here that the lipid mediator sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) serves as a critical directional cue guiding the elongation of megakaryocytic PP extensions from the interstitium into BM sinusoids and triggering the subsequent shedding of PPs into the blood. Correspondingly, mice lacking the S1P receptor S1pr1 develop severe thrombocytopenia caused by both formation of aberrant extravascular PPs and defective intravascular PP shedding. In contrast, activation of S1pr1 signaling leads to the prompt release of new platelets into the circulating blood. Collectively, our findings uncover a novel function of the S1P-S1pr1 axis as master regulator of efficient thrombopoiesis and might raise new therapeutic options for patients with thrombocytopenia

The ReCoDe addiction research consortium:Losing and regaining control over drug intake-Findings and future perspectives

Substance use disorders (SUDs) are seen as a continuum ranging from goal-directed and hedonic drug use to loss of control over drug intake with aversive consequences for mental and physical health and social functioning. The main goals of our interdisciplinary German collaborative research centre on Losing and Regaining Control over Drug Intake (ReCoDe) are (i) to study triggers (drug cues, stressors, drug priming) and modifying factors (age, gender, physical activity, cognitive functions, childhood adversity, social factors, such as loneliness and social contact/interaction) that longitudinally modulate the trajectories of losing and regaining control over drug consumption under real-life conditions. (ii) To study underlying behavioural, cognitive and neurobiological mechanisms of disease trajectories and drug-related behaviours and (iii) to provide non-invasive mechanism-based interventions. These goals are achieved by: (A) using innovative mHealth (mobile health) tools to longitudinally monitor the effects of triggers and modifying factors on drug consumption patterns in real life in a cohort of 900 patients with alcohol use disorder. This approach will be complemented by animal models of addiction with 24/7 automated behavioural monitoring across an entire disease trajectory; i.e. from a naïve state to a drug-taking state to an addiction or resilience-like state. (B) The identification and, if applicable, computational modelling of key molecular, neurobiological and psychological mechanisms (e.g., reduced cognitive flexibility) mediating the effects of such triggers and modifying factors on disease trajectories. (C) Developing and testing non-invasive interventions (e.g., Just-In-Time-Adaptive-Interventions (JITAIs), various non-invasive brain stimulations (NIBS), individualized physical activity) that specifically target the underlying mechanisms for regaining control over drug intake. Here, we will report on the most important results of the first funding period and outline our future research strategy.</p

Autologous-allogeneic <i>versus</i> autologous tandem stem cell transplantation and maintenance therapy with thalidomide for multiple myeloma patients under 60 years of age: a prospective, phase II study

The role of autologous-allogeneic tandem stem cell transplantation (alloTSCT) followed by maintenance as upfront treatment for multiple myeloma is controversial. Between 2008 and 2014 a total of 217 multiple myeloma patients with a median age of 51 years were included by 20 German centers within an open-label, parallel-group, multicenter clinical trial to compare alloTSCT to autologous tandem transplantation (autoTSCT) followed by 2 years of maintenance therapy with thalidomide (100 mg/day) in both arms with respect to relapse/progression-free survival (PFS) and other relevant outcomes. A total of 178 patients underwent a second transplant (132 allogeneic, 46 autologous). PFS at 4 years after the second transplant was 47% (95% CI: 38-55%) for alloTSCT and 35% (95% CI: 21-49%) for autoTSCT (P=0.26). This difference increased to 22% at 8 years (P=0.10). The cumulative incidences of non-relapse mortality and of relapse at 4 years were 13% (95% CI: 8-20%) and 2% (95% CI: 0.3-2%) (P=0.044) and 40% (95% CI: 33-50%) and 63% (95% CI: 50-79%) (P=0.04) for alloTSCT and autoTSCT, respectively. The difference for relapse/progression increased to 33% (alloTSCT: 44%, autoTSCT: 77%) at a median follow-up of 82 months (P=0.002). Four-year overall survival was 66% (95% CI: 57-73%) for alloTSCT and 66% (95% CI: 50-78%) for autoTSCT (P=0.91) and 8-year overall survival was 52% and 50% (P=0.87), respectively. In conclusion, alloTSCT followed by thalidomide maintenance reduced the rate of recurrence or progression during a follow-up period of up to 10 years but failed to improve PFS significantly. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00777998)

Inferring causal molecular networks: empirical assessment through a community-based effort

Inferring molecular networks is a central challenge in computational biology. However, it has remained unclear whether causal, rather than merely correlational, relationships can be effectively inferred in complex biological settings. Here we describe the HPN-DREAM network inference challenge that focused on learning causal influences in signaling networks. We used phosphoprotein data from cancer cell lines as well as in silico data from a nonlinear dynamical model. Using the phosphoprotein data, we scored more than 2,000 networks submitted by challenge participants. The networks spanned 32 biological contexts and were scored in terms of causal validity with respect to unseen interventional data. A number of approaches were effective and incorporating known biology was generally advantageous. Additional sub-challenges considered time-course prediction and visualization. Our results constitute the most comprehensive assessment of causal network inference in a mammalian setting carried out to date and suggest that learning causal relationships may be feasible in complex settings such as disease states. Furthermore, our scoring approach provides a practical way to empirically assess the causal validity of inferred molecular networks