Climate, zooplankton and pelagic fish growth in the Central Baltic Sea

Oceanographic conditions in the brackish central Baltic Sea are strongly linked to atmospheric forcing and the unusual period of persistently strong westerlies that, since the late 1980s, have resulted in an increase in average water temperatures and decreasing salinity. These changes in temperature and salinity resulted in a change in the dominance of the mesozooplankton community from Pseudocalanus sp. to Temora longicornis and Acartia spp. Similar to the copepod community, the central Baltic fish community shifted from cod ( Gadus morhua ), dominant during the 1980s, to sprat ( Sprattus sprattus ), dominant during the 1990s. Further, the commercially important pelagic fish species herring ( Clupea harengus ) and sprat exhibited reductions in growth. Using Principal Component and Correlation Analyses we investigated the temporal variability in the importance of the food supply as well as competition on condition of central Baltic pelagic fish species. Our results indicate that herring condition results from a combined effect of changes in the food environment and increased competition with sprat, while sprat condition appeared to be primarily determined by intra-specific competition

Food consumption by clupeids in the Central Baltic: evidence for top-down control?

Considerable changes have taken place in the pelagic ecosystem of the Central Baltic Sea during the last decade. Owing to a combination of high fishing pressure and unfavourable hydrographic conditions, the cod (Gadus morhua) stock as the top predator in the system was reduced from a high level in the early 1980s to its lowest size on record in the early 1990s. The preferred prey species sprat (Sprattus sprattus) showed a significant increase in population size since the late 1980s to the highest level on record in recent years, while the herring (Clupea harengus), another important planktivore in the system, did not show such a response. We investigate whether fluctuations in clupeid stock size cascade down to the trophic level of mesozooplankton, based on stomach content data and daily ration estimates in combination with stock sizes estimated from Multispecies Virtual Population Analysis. Estimates of daily consumption by the populations of the two species for 1978–1990 were compared with standing stocks of mesozooplankton species. No evidence was found for food limitation as might be expected if clupeids exert a strong top-down control on mesozooplankton. Also no influence on interannual variability of mesozooplankton abundance was detected. However, predation did contribute to the seasonal development of two copepod species (Pseudocalanus elongatus and Temora longicornis)

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and copeptin assays to improve diagnostic accuracy of exercise stress test in patients with suspected coronary artery disease

Background: The average diagnostic sensitivity of exercise stress tests (ESTs) is lower than that of other non-invasive cardiac stress tests. The aim of the study was to examine whether high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) or copeptin concentrations rise in response to inducible myocardial ischaemia and may improve the diagnostic accuracy of ESTs. Methods and results: An EST was performed stepwise on a bicycle ergometer by 383 consecutive patients with suspected or progression of coronary artery disease (CAD). In addition venous blood samples for measurement of hs-cTnT and copeptin were collected prior to EST, at peak exercise, and 4 h after EST. Coronary angiography was assessed for all patients. Patients with significant CAD (n=224) were more likely to be male and older compared to patients with non-significant CAD (n=169). Positive EST was documented in 125 (55.8%) patients with significant CAD and in 69 (43.4%) patients with non-significant CAD. Copeptin and hs-cTnT concentrations at baseline were higher in patients with significant CAD (copeptin: 10.8 pmol/l (interquartile range (IQR) 8.1–15.6) vs 9.4 pmol/l (IQR 7.1–13.9); p=0.04; hs-cTnT: 3.0 ng/l (IQR <3.0–5.4) vs <3.0 ng/l (IQR <3.0); p=0.006). Hs-cTnT improved sensitivity (61.6% vs 55.8%), specificity (67.7% vs 56.6%) and the positive predictive value (PPV) (72.3% vs 64.4%) and negative (55.2% vs 47.6%) predictive value (NPV) of EST. Copeptin could not improve sensitivity (55.4% vs 55.8%) and reduced specificity, PPV and NPV. Conclusions: The measurement of hs-cTnT during EST improves sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. In contrast, measurement of copeptin does not improve diagnostic sensitivity and reduces specificity

Long-term trends in abundance of cladocerans in the Central Baltic: the influence of hydrography and predation by fish

Long-term dynamics (1960–1997) of the cladoceran species Bosmina coregoni maritima, Evadne nordmanni and Podon spp. are described for the Gdansk Deep and the Gotland Basin (Central Baltic Sea). By using correlation analyses on seasonal time-series, the influence of temperature and salinity on the abundance of cladoceran species was investigated. A clear affinity to higher temperature was found for B. coregoni maritima in summer as well as for E. nordmanni and Podon spp. in spring. In addition to temperature, association tests with salinity revealed besides species-specific preferences, regional and temporal differences. Contrary to B. coregoni maritima, both other species were positively associated to salinity in summer and autumn in the Gdansk Deep. In the Gotland Basin only E. nordmanni was positively correlated to salinity in autumn. Differences in the response to hydrographic variables are possibly stage specific, i.e. between resting eggs and adults, or due to a different adaptation to the abiotic environment

Survival probability of Baltic larval cod in relation to spatial overlap paterns with their prey obtained from drift model studies

Temporal mismatch between the occurrence of larvae and their prey potentially affects the spatial overlap and thus the contact rates between predator and prey. This might have important consequences for growth and survival. We performed a case study investigating the influence of circulation patterns on the overlap of Baltic cod larvae with their prey. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to analyse spatio-temporally resolved drift patterns of larval Baltic cod. A coefficient of overlap between modelled larval and idealized prey distributions indicated the probability of predator–prey overlap, dependent on the hatching time of cod larvae. By performing model runs for the years 1979–1998 investigated the intra- and interannual variability of potential spatial overlap between predator and prey. Assuming uniform prey distributions, we generally found the overlap to have decreased since the mid-1980s, but with the highest variability during the 1990s. Seasonally, predator–prey overlap on the Baltic cod spawning grounds was highest in summer and lowest at the end of the cod spawning season. Horizontally variable prey distributions generally resulted in decreased overlap coefficients. Finally, we related variations in overlap patterns to the variability of Baltic cod recruitment success

Early detection of ecosystem regime shifts: A multiple method evaluation for management application

Critical transitions between alternative stable states have been shown to occur across an array of complex systems. While our ability to identify abrupt regime shifts in natural ecosystems has improved, detection of potential early-warning signals previous to such shifts is still very limited. Using real monitoring data of a key ecosystem component, we here apply multiple early-warning indicators in order to assess their ability to forewarn a major ecosystem regime shift in the Central Baltic Sea. We show that some indicators and methods can result in clear early-warning signals, while other methods may have limited utility in ecosystem-based management as they show no or weak potential for early-warning. We therefore propose a multiple method approach for early detection of ecosystem regime shifts in monitoring data that may be useful in informing timely management actions in the face of ecosystem change