Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis

This paper develops a multi-country overlapping-generations general equilibrium model to gauge the economic impacts of demographic changes in the global economy and its transmission effects on different countries. Although severe demographic pressures contribute to significantly lower real GDP per capita across several regions in the world, globalisation through international trade generates an improvement in the terms of trade of older OECD countries, which sustains their real consumption per capita, while globalisation through capital flows stimulates capital deepening and therefore growth in younger countries such as India and various parts of the Rest of the World. The general equilibrium nature of the ageing process is crucial to understand the net foreign asset dynamics of countries during the demographic transition, and this is particularly relevant for a country like China that is caught, in the global economy, between relatively older and younger countries. On this regard China, unlike older countries, does not benefit from a terms of trade improvement which could otherwise sustain its consumption, nor does it benefit, unlike India, from capital deepening, which could otherwise sustain its GDP growth.Inequality Demographic transition, ageing, globalisation, overlapping generations, computable general equilibrium modeling

Language delay in severely neglected children : a cumulative or specific effect of risk factors?

Objectives. This research sought to determine if the language delay of severely neglected children under three years old was better explained by a cumulative risk model or by the specificity of risk factors. The objective was also to identify the risk factors with the strongest impact on language delay among various biological, psychological and environmental factors. Methods. Sixty-eight severely neglected children and their mothers participated in this crosssectional study. Children were between 2 and 36 months of age. Data included information about the child's language development and biological, psychological and environmental risk factors. Results. Prevalence of language delays is significantly higher in this subgroup of children than in the population as a whole. Although we observed that the risk of language delay significantly increased with an increase in the cumulative count of the presence of the child’s biologicalpsychological risk factors, the one-by-one analysis of the individual factors revealed that the cumulative effect mainly reflected the specific impact of the child’s cognitive development. When we considered also the environmental risk factors, multivariate logistic regression established that cognitive development, the mother’s own physical and emotional abuse experience as a child, and the mother’s low acceptability level towards her child are linked to language delays in severely neglected children. Conclusions. Language development is the result of a complex interaction between risk factors. The language delay in severely neglected children is better explained by the specificity of risk factors than by the cumulative risk model. Practice implications. Most prevention and early intervention programs promote and target an increase in the quantity and quality of language stimulation offered to the child. Our results suggest that particular attention should be given to other environmental factors, specifically the mother’s psychological availability and her sensitivity towards the child. It is essential to suggest interventions targeting various ecological dimensions of neglectful mothers to help break the intergenerational neglect transmission cycle. It is also important to develop government policies and ensure that efforts among the various response networks are concerted since in-depth changes to neglect situations can only come about when all interested parties become involved

L'habilitation psychologique et la fréquence des conduites d'incivilité organisationnelle autorévélées

L’incivilité organisationnelle se définit par des comportements antisociaux de faible intensité, avec l’intention ambiguë de nuire à la cible. Ces comportements se manifesteraient de façon quotidienne chez 25 % des travailleurs et plus d’une fois par semaine chez 50 % de ceux-ci, entraînant ainsi des conséquences fort néfastes. Le stress, la satisfaction au travail et la perception individuelle de justice organisationnelle seraient considérés comme les principaux déterminants individuels de l’incivilité organisationnelle. Qui plus est, ces déterminants de l’incivilité organisationnelle auraient tous un facteur en commun, soit l’habilitation psychologique comme variable indépendante. Cet effet se traduirait donc par une diminution du niveau de stress, une hausse de la satisfaction retirée de l’emploi et une perception individuelle de justice dans l’organisation. À ce jour, aucune étude n’a encore exploré la relation entre l’habilitation psychologique et l’incivilité organisationnelle. L’objectif principal de cette thèse est donc d’étudier les liens existant entre la mesure globale de l’habilitation psychologique (sens du travail, influence perçue, autonomie perçue, compétence perçue) des gestionnaires et la fréquence des conduites d’incivilité organisationnelle « autorévélées » par ces derniers. La population ciblée se compose de 621 directeurs et directeurs principaux d’une organisation du secteur des services financiers. À partir de leurs réponses aux instruments psychométriques mesurant ces concepts, nous avons procédé à des analyses de régressions multiples hiérarchiques afin de vérifier la contribution des quatre dimensions de l’habilitation psychologique dans l’explication des conduites d’incivilité organisationnelle autorévélées chez les travailleurs de cette organisation

Diversité génétique et morphologique des hybrides asexués Fundulus diaphanus X F. heteroclitus

La présence d’hybrides asexués gynogénétiques entre Fundulus diaphanus et F. heteroclitus à deux sites en Nouvelle-Écosse (Porter’s Lake et Saint-Mary’s River) est documentée dans la littérature. Un échantillonnage aléatoire de Fundulus à douze stations le long du gradient de salinité de Porter’s Lake et le génotypage à l’aide de huit marqueurs microsatellites a permis de découvrir la présence d’un clone principal et de ses dérivés mutationnels, constituant ensemble 97% des hybrides. D’autre part, une méthode d’identification morphologique des F. diaphanus, des F. heteroclitus et des hybrides basée sur un algorithme de vraisemblance maximale a été élaborée pour utilisation sur le terrain, permettant une diagnose rapide et efficace à plus de 90%. Une grande variabilité morphologique des hybrides a été observée à l’aide de la morphométrie géométrique. Finalement, la vaste répartition d’un clone principal et de ses dérivés mutationnels, morphologiquement variables, laisse supposer la présence un génotype généraliste à Porter’s Lake.Presence of asexual hybrids between Fundulus diaphanus and F. heteroclitus at two sites in Nova Scotia (Porter’s Lake and Saint-Mary’s River) has been documented in the literature. Random sampling of Fundulus along the salinity gradient of Porter’s Lake and genotyping using eight microsatellite markers revealed one main clone and its mutational derivatives in the lake, representing 97% of hybrids encountered. Also, a novel method of morphological identification of F. diaphanus, F. heteroclitus and hybrids based on a maximum likelihood algorithm has been elaborated for fieldwork purposes, allowing a quick, over 90% efficient, way to diagnose the three Fundulus types. Morphological analyses performed using geometric morphometrics also revealed that hybrids were no less variable morphologically than parental species. Finally, the presence of one main clone in different salinities and an important morphological variability suggest the presence of a General-Purpose Genotype in Porter’s Lake

Conception d'un alésoir acétabulaire à diamètre variable

Au Canada, 25124 arthroplasties de la hanche étaient réalisées en 2004-2005. Pour chacune de ces chirurgies, un temps considérable est consacré à l'alésage acétabulaire. Ce projet vise à améliorer l'instrumentation actuelle destinée à l'alésage acétabulaire afin de réduire le temps opératoire, le nombre de manipulations, les erreurs chirurgicales, les risques d'infection et le temps de stérilisation. Pour ce faire, l'approche méthodologique de la maison de la qualité a été employée. La collaboration des différents utilisateurs (chirurgiens, résidents, infirmiers(ères), représentants et personnel de stérilisation) permet d'identifier en détails leurs besoins. Les caractéristiques critiques de la solution idéale sont définies en combinant les méthodes de Pareto, des effets cumulés et des « 3N ». Par la suite, une série d'étapes de génération d'idées sont réalisées et plusieurs concepts sont proposés. Une étude détaillée de tous les brevets existants et des demandes d'application pour brevets récemment déposées est réalisée. Tous les concepts proposés sont évalués à l'aide de deux méthodes, soient la matrice de Pugh et la matrice de décision. Enfin, un concept optimal est proposé. Le concept final consiste en une lame centrale qui déplace huit autres lames, disposées en forme de croix. Cette lame centrale est activée par un système de poussoir inspiré d'un mécanisme de vis. L'outil se déploie sur la plage 44mm à 66mm. Lorsque la dimension d'alésage désirée est atteinte, un système de serrage fondé sur le principe des mors d'un étau, bloque les lames. Ce concept est validé par la fabrication d'un prototype fabriqué en ABS par prototypage rapide. Par la suite, des analyses de résistance sont effectuées par la méthode des éléments finis. Les analyses simulent le cas où les lames sont coincées dans l'os acétabulaire, la perceuse génère simultanément son couple maximal et le chirurgien applique sa force maximale sur la perceuse. L'outil, fait de titane, résiste généralement aux charges mais une attention particulière doit éventuellement être portée à la lame A qui subie les contraintes les plus importantes. Un brevet provisoire est déposé et une série d'expérimentations sont à venir

Can an Ageing Scotland Afford Independence?

The aim and scope of this paper is to isolate the effects of population ageing in the context of potential Scottish independence. Fiscal challenges are often quoted as a strong argument against independence. Demographic processes play an important role in determining future economic growth via their impact on labour market, saving behaviour and government budget. One of the arguments that have been raised during the debate is that Scotland is in a worse demographic situation than RUK, and independence will make it harder for it to provide for its ageing population. In this paper we developed a multi-regional OLG-CGE model for Scotland, the rest of the UK (RUK) and the rest of the World (ROW). The model is used to evaluate the two scenarios: the status quo and the independence scenarios. The status quo scenario assumes that Scotland stays part of the UK and all government expenditures associated with its ageing population (mainly pensions and health) are funded on a UK-wide basis. In the independence scenario, Scotland and the rest of the UK have separate government budget constraints and pay for the growing demands of their ageing populations independently. According to the status quo scenario, population ageing has a strong impact on economic development in both regions. By 2060 output per person falls in Scotland and RUK by 9% and 10% respectively and total government spending increases by about 4 percentage points of GDP in both regions. To achieve government budget balance the effective labour income tax rate has to increase from about 13.0% to 21.5%. The comparison of the two scenarios suggests that Scotland is worse off in the case of independence. The effective labour income tax rate in the independence scenario has to increase further compared with the status quo scenario. The additional increase reaches its maximum in 2035 at 1.4 percentage points. The additional rise in the tax rate is non-negligible, but is much smaller than the population ageing effect (status quo scenario) which generates an increase of about 8.5 percentage points by 2060. The difference for government finances between the status quo and independence scenarios is thus relatively small. The bottom line is that, clearly, population ageing is a major issue for Scotland and RUK, no matter the final result of the independence vote. But unless the speed and intensity of population ageing in Scotland increases rapidly relative to RUK in the years to come, demographic change is not a strong argument to influence the choice between the status quo and independence

Prevalence of insomnia and its treatment in Canada

Objectives : To estimate the prevalence of insomnia and examine its correlates (for example, demographics and physical and mental health) and treatments. Methods : A sample of 2000 Canadians aged 18 years and older responded to a telephone survey about sleep, health, and the use of sleep-promoting products. Respondents with insomnia were identified using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, Text Revision, and the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Edition, criteria. Results : Among the sample, 40.2% presented at least 1 symptom of insomnia (that is, trouble falling or staying asleep, or early morning awakening) for a minimum of 3 nights per week in the previous month, 19.8% were dissatisfied with their sleep, and 13.4% met all criteria for insomnia (that is, presence of 1 insomnia symptom 3 nights or more per week for at least 1 month, accompanied by distress or daytime impairment). Insomnia was associated with female sex, older age, and poorer self-rated physical and mental health. Thirteen per cent of respondents had consulted a health care provider for sleep difficulties once in their lifetime. Moreover, 10% had used prescribed medications for sleep in the previous year, 9.0% used natural products, 5.7% used over-the-counter products, and 4.6% used alcohol. There were differences between French- and English-speaking adults, with the former group presenting lower rates of insomnia (9.5%, compared with 14.3%) and consultation (8.7%, compared with 14.4%), but higher rates of prescribed medications (12.9%, compared with 9.3%) and the use of natural products (15.6%, compared with 7.4%). Conclusions : Insomnia is a prevalent condition, although few people seek professional consultation for this condition. Despite regional differences in the prevalence and treatments used to manage insomnia, prescribed medications remain the most widely used therapeutic option.Objectifs : Estimer la prévalence de l'insomnie et examiner ses corrélats (par exemple, les données démographiques et la santé physique et mentale) et les traitements. Méthodes : Un échantillon de 2000 Canadiens de 18 ans et plus ont répondu à une enquête téléphonique sur le sommeil, la santé et l'utilisation de produits qui favorisent le sommeil. Les répondants souffrant d'insomnie ont été identifiés à l'aide des critères du Manuel diagnostique et statistique des troubles mentaux, 4e édition révisée, et de la Classification internationale des maladies, 10e édition. Résultats : Dans l'échantillon, 40,2 % présentaient au moins 1 symptôme d'insomnie (c'est-à-dire, difficulté à s'endormir ou à rester endormi, ou réveil tôt le matin) pour un minimum de 3 nuits par semaine durant le mois précédent, 19,8 % étaient insatisfaits de leur sommeil, et 13,4 % satisfaisaient à tous les critères de l'insomnie (c'est-à-dire, la présence d'un symptôme d'insomnie 3 nuits ou plus par semaine pendant au moins 1 mois, accompagnée de détresse ou d'incapacité durant le jour). L'insomnie était associée avec le sexe féminin, l'âge avancé, et une mauvaise santé physique et mentale auto-déclarée. Treize pour cent des répondants avaient consulté un prestataire de soins de santé pour des difficultés de sommeil une fois dans leur vie. En outre, 10 % avaient utilisé des médicaments prescrits pour le sommeil dans l'année précédente, 9,0 % avaient utilisé des produits naturels, 5,7 % avaient utilisé des produits en vente libre, et 4,6 % avaient utilisé de l'alcool. Il y avait des différences entre les adultes francophones et anglophones, le premier groupe présentant des taux plus faibles d'insomnie (9,5 %, comparé à 14,3 %) et de consultations (8,7 %, comparé à 14,4 %), mais des taux plus élevés de médicaments prescrits (12,9 %, comparé à 9,3 %) et d'utilisation de produits naturels (15,6 %, comparé à 7,4 %). Conclusions : L'insomnie est une affection prévalente, bien que peu de gens aient recours à une consultation professionnelle pour ce problème. Malgré des différences régionales de prévalence et des traitements utilisés pour gérer l'insomnie, les médicaments prescrits demeurent l'option thérapeutique la plus utilisée

Monthly fluctuations of insomnia symptoms in a population-based sample

Study Objectives: To document the monthly changes in sleep/insomnia status over a 12-month period; to determine the optimal time intervals to reliably capture new incident cases and recurrent episodes of insomnia and the likelihood of its persistence over time. Design: Participants were 100 adults (mean age = 49.9 years; 66% women) randomly selected from a larger population-based sample enrolled in a longitudinal study of the natural history of insomnia. They completed 12 monthly telephone interviews assessing insomnia, use of sleep aids, stressful life events, and physical and mental health problems in the previous month. A total of 1,125 interviews of a potential 1,200 were completed. Based on data collected at each assessment, participants were classified into one of three subgroups: good sleepers, insomnia symptoms, and insomnia syndrome. Results: At baseline, 42 participants were classified as good sleepers, 34 met criteria for insomnia symptoms, and 24 for an insomnia syndrome. There were significant fluctuations of insomnia over time, with 66% of the participants changing sleep status at least once over the 12 monthly assessments (51.5% for good sleepers, 59.5% for insomnia syndrome, and 93.4% for insomnia symptoms). Changes of status were more frequent among individuals with insomnia symptoms at baseline (mean = 3.46, SD = 2.36) than among those initially classified as good sleepers (mean = 2.12, SD = 2.70). Among the subgroup with insomnia symptoms at baseline, 88.3% reported improved sleep (i.e., became good sleepers) at least once over the 12 monthly assessments compared to 27.7% whose sleep worsened (i.e., met criteria for an insomnia syndrome) during the same period. Among individuals classified as good sleepers at baseline, risks of developing insomnia symptoms and syndrome over the subsequent months were, respectively, 48.6% and 14.5%. Monthly assessment over an interval of 6 months was found most reliable to estimate incidence rates, while an interval of 3 months proved the most reliable for defining chronic insomnia. Conclusions: Monthly assessment of insomnia and sleep patterns revealed significant variability over the course of a 12-month period. These findings highlight the importance for future epidemiological studies of conducting repeated assessment at shorter than the typical yearly interval in order to reliably capture the natural course of insomnia over time

Human capital in economic development: from labour productivity to macroeconomic impact

Micro-econometric evidence reveals high private returns to education, most prominently in low-income countries. However, it is disputed to what extent this translates into a macro-economic impact. This paper projects the increase in human capital from higher education in Malawi and uses a dynamic applied general equilibrium model to estimate the resulting macroeconomics impact. This is contingent upon endogenous adjustments, in particular how labour productivity affects competitiveness and if this in turn stimulates exports. Choice among labour market assumptions and trade elasticities results in widely different outcomes. Appraisal of such policies should consider not only the impact on human capital stocks, but also adjustments outside the labour market