Evaluation of a WRF ensemble using GCM boundary conditions to quantify mean and extreme climate for the southwest of Western Australia (1970-1999)

A high resolution (5 km), single initialization, 30 year (1970–1999) Weather Research and Forecast regional climate model (RCM) ensemble for southwest Western Australia (SWWA) is evaluated. The article focuses on the ability of the RCM to simulate winter cold fronts, which are the main source of rainfall for the region, and assesses the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate extremes within the region's cereal crop growing season. To explore uncertainty, a four-member ensemble was run, using lateral boundary conditions from general circulation models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3; ECHAM5, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2 (MIROC 3.2), Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) mk3.5. Simulations are evaluated against gridded observations of temperature and precipitation and atmospheric conditions are compared to a simulation using ERA-Interim reanalysis boundary conditions, which is used as a surrogate truth. Results show that generally, the RCM simulations were able to represent the climatology of SWWA well, however differences in the positioning of the subtropical high pressure belt were apparent which influenced the number of fronts traversing the region and hence winter precipitation biases. Systematic temperature biases were present in some ensemble members and the RCM was found to be colder than the driving GCM in all simulations. Biases impacted model skill in representing temperature extremes and this was particularly apparent in the MIROC-forced simulation, which was the worst performing RCM for both temperature and precipitation. The dynamical causes of the biases are explored and findings show that nonetheless, the RCM provides added value, particularly in the spatio-temporal representation of wet season rainfall

G-Brownian Motion as Rough Paths and Differential Equations Driven by G-Brownian Motion

The present paper is devoted to the study of sample paths of G-Brownian motion and stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by G-Brownian motion from the view of rough path theory. As the starting point, we show that quasi-surely, sample paths of G-Brownian motion can be enhanced to the second level in a canonical way so that they become geometric rough paths of roughness 2 < p < 3. This result enables us to introduce the notion of rough differential equations (RDEs) driven by G-Brownian motion in the pathwise sense under the general framework of rough paths. Next we establish the fundamental relation between SDEs and RDEs driven by G-Brownian motion. As an application, we introduce the notion of SDEs on a differentiable manifold driven by GBrownian motion and construct solutions from the RDE point of view by using pathwise localization technique. This is the starting point of introducing G-Brownian motion on a Riemannian manifold, based on the idea of Eells-Elworthy-Malliavin. The last part of this paper is devoted to such construction for a wide and interesting class of G-functions whose invariant group is the orthogonal group. We also develop the Euler-Maruyama approximation for SDEs driven by G-Brownian motion of independent interest

Dynamical downscaling for the southwest of Western Australia using the WRF modelling system

The southwest of Western Australia (SWWA) is a region of significant cereal production, with the main crops being winter grown wheat and barley. The most important factors influencing wheat growth and production are temperature extremes and precipitation, and hence, it is critical to have an understanding of how these environmental factors have changed in the past, and how they are likely to change in the future. One method of addressing this important research question is by using regional climate models (RCMs) to dynamically downscale re-analysis products and/or output form Global Circulation Models to a fine resolution. One tool which is being increasingly used for this purpose is the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) Advanced Research (ARW). However, like any modeling system, WRF-ARW requires thorough testing before it is implemented to carry out long-term climate runs. This paper examines the influence of different input data sources, as well as model physics options on simulated precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures in SWWA by comparing the simulations against an observational gridded dataset. It is found that running WRF3.3 with the 1.0 × 1.0 degree National Center for Environmental Prediction Final analysis (NCEP-FNL), as compared to the 2.5 × 2.5 degree NCEP / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR or NNRP) results in much improved simulations of precipitation and temperatures. Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1.0 × 1.0 degree resolution sea surface temperature (SST) dataset does not result in markedly different results as compared to using the NNRP surface skin temperatures as SSTs. Using the Betts-Miller-Jajic (BMJ) scheme for cumulus/convection parameterisation rather than the more widely used Kain Fritsch (KF) scheme results in slightly higher errors for precipitation, and no marked change in temperatures. The latest version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTMG) is found to result in improved simulations of maximum and minimum temperatures, as compared to the RRTM, Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) 3.0, and Dudhia schemes. Use of the Asymmetric Convective Model as the planetary boundary-layer scheme rather than the more widely used Yonsei University scheme results in over-prediction of maximum and minimum temperatures

An analysis of regional climate simulations for Western Australia's wine regions-model evaluation and future climate projections

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is evaluated as a regional climate model for the simulation of climate indices that are relevant to viticulture in Western Australia's wine regions at a 5-km resolution under current and future climate. WRF is driven with ERA-Interim reanalysis for the current climate and three global climate models (GCMs) for both current and future climate. The focus of the analysis is on a selection of climate indices that are commonly used in climate-viticulture research. Simulations of current climate are evaluated against an observational dataset to quantify model errors over the 1981-2010 period. Changes to the indices under future climate based on the SRES A2 emissions scenario are then assessed through an analysis of future (2030-59) minus present (1970-99) climate. Results show that when WRF is driven with ERA-Interim there is generally good agreement with observations for all of the indices although there is a noticeable negative bias for the simulation of precipitation. The results for the GCM-forced simulations were less consistent. Namely, while the GCM-forced simulations performed reasonably well for the temperature indices, all simulations performed inconsistently for the precipitation index. Climate projections showed significant warming for both of the temperature indices and indicated potential risks to Western Australia's wine growing regions under future climate, particularly in the north. There was disagreement between simulations with regard to the projections of the precipitation indices and hence greater uncertainty as to how these will be characterized under future climate

Factors associated with anaemia status and haemoglobin concentrations in infants 6-11 months in Mbala District, Northern Province, Zambia

This paper presents information on the factors associated with anaemia status and haemoglobin concentrations in infants 6-11 months old in Mbala District, Northern Province, Zambia. The information is drawn from the baseline data collection of a study involving 631 caregiver-child pairs. The data presented here includes anthropometry, malaria parasitism, concentrations of haemoglobin (Hb) and serum transferrin receptor (STfR), and information on household characteristics, infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices, and morbidity, gathered via questionnaire. It was found that 57% of the sample was anaemic (Hb &lt; 110 g/L), 93% was iron deficient (STfR &gt; 8.3 mg/L) and 53% had iron deficiency anaemia. Overall, 30% of the infants in the sample were stunted, 2% were wasted, and 16% were underweight, and 22%, 56% and 18% of infants were meeting minimum dietary diversity, minimum meal frequency, and minimum acceptable diet, respectively, and 28% consumed iron rich foods in the previous 24 hours. Infants who had achieved a minimum dietary diversity score (OR = 0.44; 95% CI: 0.30-0.65), who had consumed iron rich foods in the previous 24 hours (OR = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.40-0.80), or were female (OR = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.50-0.94), had significantly lower risks of being anaemic. Infants that tested positive for malaria parasitism (OR = 4.33; 95% CI: 2.16- 8.70), as well as those having a fever (OR = 1.88; 95% CI: 1.36-2.59) in the previous two weeks had significantly greater odds of being anaemic. Despite these associations, whether or not a child slept under a mosquito net was not related to their risk of being anaemic. Infants in households that treated their water to make it safer to consume had average haemoglobin concentrations 3 g/L higher than those who did not (p = 0.021), but this did not translate into a significant difference in the odds of being anaemic. These results shed light on the specific causes of anaemia in the Zambian context, and illustrate the importance of improving dietary quality, specifically the intake of iron, and reducing the prevalence of diseases including malaria in order to reduce the prevalence of anaemia.Keywords: Nutritional status, Zambia, anaemia, iron deficiency, malaria, serum transferrin receptor, haemoglobi

On Sharp Large Deviations for the bridge of a general Diffusion

We provide sharp Large Deviation estimates for the probability of exit from a domain for the bridge of a $d$-dimensional general diffusion process $X$, as the conditioning time tends to $0$. This kind of results is motivated by applications to numerical simulation. In particular we investigate the influence of the drift $b$ of $X$. It turns out that the sharp asymptotics for the exit time probability are independent of the drift, provided $b$ enjoyes a simple condition that is always satisfied in dimension $1$. On the other hand, we show that the drift can be influential if this assumption is not satisfied.

Strategies for the evolution of sex

We find that the hypothesis made by Jan, Stauffer and Moseley [Theory in Biosc., 119, 166 (2000)] for the evolution of sex, namely a strategy devised to escape extinction due to too many deleterious mutations, is sufficient but not necessary for the successful evolution of a steady state population of sexual individuals within a finite population. Simply allowing for a finite probability for conversion to sex in each generation also gives rise to a stable sexual population, in the presence of an upper limit on the number of deleterious mutations per individual. For large values of this probability, we find a phase transition to an intermittent, multi-stable regime. On the other hand, in the limit of extremely slow drive, another transition takes place to a different steady state distribution, with fewer deleterious mutations within the asexual population.Comment: RevTeX, 11 pages, multicolumn, including 12 figure

Cut Points and Diffusions in Random Environment

In this article we investigate the asymptotic behavior of a new class of multi-dimensional diffusions in random environment. We introduce cut times in the spirit of the work done by Bolthausen, Sznitman and Zeitouni, see [4], in the discrete setting providing a decoupling effect in the process. This allows us to take advantage of an ergodic structure to derive a strong law of large numbers with possibly vanishing limiting velocity and a central limit theorem under the quenched measure.Comment: 44 pages; accepted for publication in "Journal of Theoretical Probability

Winding down the Chicxulub impact: The transition between impact and normal marine sedimentation near ground zero

The Chicxulub impact led to the formation of a ~ 200-km wide by ~1-km deep crater on México's Yucatán Peninsula. Over a period of hours after the impact the ocean re-entered and covered the impact basin beneath several hundred meters of water. A suite of impactites were deposited across the crater during crater formation, and by the resurge, tsunami and seiche events that followed. International Ocean Discovery Program/International Continental Scientific Drilling Program Expedition 364 drilled into the peak ring of the Chicxulub crater, and recovered ~130 m of impact deposits and a 75-cm thick, fine-grained, carbonate-rich “Transitional Unit”, above which normal marine sedimentation resumed. Here, we describe the results of analyses of the uppermost impact breccia (suevite) and the Transitional Unit, which suggests a gradual waning of energy recorded by this local K-Pg boundary sequence. The dominant depositional motif in the upper suevite and the Transitional Unit is of rapid sedimentation characterized by graded bedding, local cross bedding, and evidence of oscillatory currents. The lower Transitional Unit records the change from deposition of dominantly sand-sized to mainly silt to clay sized material with impact debris that decreases in both grain size and abundance upward. The middle part of the Transitional Unit is interrupted by a 20 cm thick soft sediment slump overlain by graded and oscillatory current cross-laminated beds. The uppermost Transitional Unit is also soft sediment deformed, contains trace fossils, and an increasing abundance of planktic foraminifer and calcareous nannoplankton survivors. The Transitional Unit, as with similar deposits in other marine target impact craters, records the final phases of impact-related sedimentation prior to resumption of normal marine conditions. Petrographic and stable isotopic analyses of carbon from organic matter provide insight into post-impact processes. δ13Corg values are between terrestrial and marine end members with fluctuations of 1–3‰. Timing of deposition of the Transitional Unit is complicated to ascertain. The repetitive normally graded laminae, both below and above the soft sediment deformed interval, record rapid deposition from currents driven by tsunami and seiches, processes that likely operated for weeks to potentially years post-impact due to subsequent continental margin collapse events. Highly siderophile element-enrichment at the top of the unit is likely from fine-grained ejecta that circulated in the atmosphere for several years prior to settling. The Transitional Unit is thus an exquisite record of the final phases of impact-related sedimentation related to one of the most consequential events in Earth history

PREDICTING THE SUMMER TEMPERATURE OF SMALL STREAMS IN SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN 1

One of the biggest challenges in managing cold water streams in the Midwest is understanding how stream temperature is controlled by the complex interactions among meteorologic processes, channel geometry, and ground water inflow. Inflow of cold ground water, shade provided by riparian vegetation, and channel width are the most important factors controlling summer stream temperatures. A simple screening model was used to quantitatively evaluate the importance of these factors and guide management decisions. The model uses an analytical solution to the heat transport equation to predict steady-state temperature throughout a stream reach. The model matches field data from four streams in southwestern Wisconsin quite well (typically within 1°C) and helps explain the observed warming and cooling trends along each stream reach. The distribution of ground water inflow throughout a stream reach has an important influence on stream temperature, and springs are especially effective at providing thermal refuge for fish. Although simple, this model provides insight into the importance of ground water and the impact different management strategies, such as planting trees to increase shade, may have on summer stream temperature.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74032/1/j.1752-1688.2005.tb03714.x.pd