Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. METHODS: To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. FINDINGS: Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Pharmacological Treatment for Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome is Associated with Altered DNA Methylation and Neurobehavior

Objective: To determine whether pharmacological treatment for neonatal abstinence syndrome (NAS) is associated with changes in DNA methylation (DNAm) of the mu-opioid receptor gene (OPRM1) and improvements in neonatal neurobehavior. Study Design: Buccal swabs were collected from 37 neonates before and after morphine treatment for NAS. Genomic DNA was extracted and DNAm was examined at four CpG sites within the OPRM1 gene. The NICU Network Neurobehavioral Scales (NNNS) was also performed before and after NAS treatment. Changes in DNAm (DNAmpost-tx – DNAmpre-tx) and NNNS summary scores (NNNSpost-tx – NNNSpre-tx) were then calculated. Path analysis was used to examine associations among pharmacologic treatment (length of treatment and total dose of morphine), changes in DNAm, and changes in NNNS summary scores. Results: DNAm significantly decreased from pre- to post-treatment at 1 of 4 CpG sites within the OPRM1 gene. Neonates also demonstrated decreased excitability, hypertonia, lethargy, signs of stress and abstinence, and increased quality of movement and regulation from pre- to post-treatment. Increased length of treatment and higher morphine doses were associated with greater decreases in DNAm; greater decreases in DNAm were associated with greater decreases in excitability and hypertonia on the NNNS. Conclusions: Pharmacological treatment of NAS is associated with decreased DNAm of the OPRM1 gene and improved neonatal neurobehavior. Epigenetic changes may play a role in these changes in neonatal neurobehavior

Examining the relationships between prenatal methamphetamine exposure, early adversity, and child neurobehavioral disinhibition.

Methamphetamine use is a growing problem among pregnant women in the United States. Many negative consequences of methamphetamine use have been documented for the users, but little research has examined the long-term association between prenatal methamphetamine exposure (PME) and childhood outcomes. The current study examined the extent to which PME was predictive of childhood neurobehavioral disinhibition (ND), as well as the extent to which early adversity mediated this relationship. A sample of 320 mother-infant dyads (162 PME) was followed from birth through 6.5 years of age. ND was conceptualized as a two factor model consisting of deficits in (a) behavioral and emotional control, and (b) executive function. PME was associated with behavioral and emotional control at 5 years, which was associated with executive function deficits at 6.5 years. Early adversity (birth through year 3) significantly mediated the relationship between PME and ND. Associations with previous research and implications for prevention are discussed

Associations between maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index and neonatal neurobehavior in infants born before 30 weeks gestation.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship between maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and neonatal neurobehavior in very premature infants. STUDY DESIGN: Multi-center prospective observational study of 664 very preterm infants with 227 born to obese mothers. The NICU Network Neurobehavioral Scale (NNNS) assessed neurobehavior at NICU discharge. RESULTS: Elevated BMI combined with infection increased the odds of having the most poorly regulated NNNS profile by 1.9 times per BMI SD. Infants born to mothers with elevated BMI in combination with: infection had poorer self-regulation, chorioamnionitis had increased asymmetrical reflexes, diabetes had poorer attention, and low SES required more handling. CONCLUSION: Maternal pre-pregnancy BMI alone did not affect short-term neonatal neurobehavior in infants born before 30 weeks gestation. Infants born to mothers with elevated pre-pregnancy weight in addition to infections, diabetes, or socioeconomic adversity demonstrated increased risk of having the most poorly regulated NNNS profile and deficits in multiple domains

School-Aged Outcomes following Prenatal Methamphetamine Exposure: 7.5-Year Follow-Up from the Infant Development, Environment, and Lifestyle Study.

ObjectiveTo assess the relationship between prenatal methamphetamine exposure (PME) and behavior problems at age 7.5 years and the extent to which early adversity mediated this relationship.Study designThe multicenter, longitudinal Infant Development, Environment, and Lifestyle study enrolled 412 mother-infant pairs at 4 sites. Methamphetamine-exposed participants (n = 204) were identified by self-report and/or gas chromatography/mass spectrometry confirmation of amphetamine and metabolites in infant meconium. Matched participants (n = 208) denied methamphetamine use and had a negative meconium screen. At the 7.5-year follow-up, 290 children with complete Child Behavior Checklist data and an early adversity index score were available for analysis (n = 146 exposed).ResultsPME was significantly associated with an increased early adversity index score (P < .001) and with increased externalizing, rule-breaking behavior, and aggressive behavior (P < .05). Early adversity was also associated with higher externalizing behavior scores. Early adversity significantly mediated the relationship between PME and behavioral problems. After adjusting the mediation model for sex, prenatal tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana exposures, and study site, the association of PME with early adversity remained significant.ConclusionsThough PME is associated with behavioral problems, early adversity may be a strong determinant of behavioral outcome for children exposed to methamphetamine in utero. Early adversity significantly mediated the relationship between PME and behavioral problems

Bronchopulmonary dysplasia and neurobehavioural outcomes at birth and 2 years in infants born before 30 weeks.

OBJECTIVE: To identify neurobehavioural risks in preterm infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) prior to hospital discharge. DESIGN AND PATIENTS: Longitudinal study of 676 newborns born before 30 weeks of gestation. SETTING: Nine university NICUs affiliated with six universities. All were Vermont Oxford Network (VON) participants. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS: Infants were enrolled in the Neonatal Neurobehavior and Outcomes in Very Preterm Infants Study from April 2014 to June 2016. Prospective medical record reviews, VON definitions and criteria, and maternal interviews were used to collect maternal and neonatal medical variables and socioenvironmental data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: NICU Network Neurobehavioral Scale (NNNS) at the time of hospital discharge; Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development, Third Edition (Bayley-III) and Gross Motor Function Classification System at 2 years corrected age. RESULTS: Infants with moderate/severe BPD were less attentive (Wald χ2 9.68, p=0.008), more lethargic (Wald χ2 9.91, p=0.007), with increased non-optimal reflexes (Wald χ2 7.37, p=0.025). Infants with moderate/severe BPD were more likely to have Bayley-III language and motor scores <85 (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.74, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.85, and aOR 2.06, 95% CI 1.10 to 3.85). Infants with both moderate/severe and mild BPD were more likely to have a cerebral palsy diagnosis (aOR 2.96, 95% CI 1.34 to 6.54, and aOR 2.81, 95% CI 1.32 to 5.99). CONCLUSIONS: BPD severity presents risks for poor neurodevelopment at NICU discharge and at age 2 years. Early identification of poorly regulated behaviour can provide critical information for early preventive and targeted interventions with potential to improve long-term outcomes

School-Aged Outcomes following Prenatal Methamphetamine Exposure: 7.5-Year Follow-Up from the Infant Development, Environment, and Lifestyle Study

ObjectiveTo assess the relationship between prenatal methamphetamine exposure (PME) and behavior problems at age 7.5 years and the extent to which early adversity mediated this relationship.Study designThe multicenter, longitudinal Infant Development, Environment, and Lifestyle study enrolled 412 mother-infant pairs at 4 sites. Methamphetamine-exposed participants (n = 204) were identified by self-report and/or gas chromatography/mass spectrometry confirmation of amphetamine and metabolites in infant meconium. Matched participants (n = 208) denied methamphetamine use and had a negative meconium screen. At the 7.5-year follow-up, 290 children with complete Child Behavior Checklist data and an early adversity index score were available for analysis (n = 146 exposed).ResultsPME was significantly associated with an increased early adversity index score (P < .001) and with increased externalizing, rule-breaking behavior, and aggressive behavior (P < .05). Early adversity was also associated with higher externalizing behavior scores. Early adversity significantly mediated the relationship between PME and behavioral problems. After adjusting the mediation model for sex, prenatal tobacco, alcohol, and marijuana exposures, and study site, the association of PME with early adversity remained significant.ConclusionsThough PME is associated with behavioral problems, early adversity may be a strong determinant of behavioral outcome for children exposed to methamphetamine in utero. Early adversity significantly mediated the relationship between PME and behavioral problems

Effects of Prenatal Methamphetamine Exposure on Behavioral and Cognitive Findings at 7.5 Years of Age

ObjectiveTo examine child behavioral and cognitive outcomes after prenatal exposure to methamphetamine.Study designWe enrolled 412 mother-infant pairs (204 methamphetamine-exposed and 208 unexposed matched comparisons) in the Infant Development, Environment, and Lifestyle study. The 151 children exposed to methamphetamine and 147 comparisons who attended the 7.5-year visit were included. Exposure was determined by maternal self-report and/or positive meconium toxicology. Maternal interviews assessed behavioral and cognitive outcomes using the Conners' Parent Rating Scale-Revised: Short Form.ResultsAfter adjusting for covariates, children exposed to methamphetamine had significantly higher cognitive problems subscale scores than comparisons and were 2.8 times more likely to have cognitive problems scores that were above average on the Conners' Parent Rating Scale-Revised: Short Form. No association between prenatal methamphetamine exposure and behavioral problems, measured by the oppositional, hyperactivity, and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder index subscales, were found.ConclusionsPrenatal methamphetamine exposure was associated with increased cognitive problems, which may affect academic achievement and lead to increased negative behavioral outcomes

Behavior Problems During Early Childhood in Children With Prenatal Methamphetamine Exposure

Background and objectivesThe effects of in utero methamphetamine exposure on behavioral problems in school-aged children are unclear. Our objective for this study was to evaluate behavior problems in children at aged 3, 5, and 7.5 years who were prenatally exposed to methamphetamine.MethodsSubjects were enrolled in the Infant Development, Environment, and Lifestyle study, a longitudinal prospective study of prenatal methamphetamine exposure and child outcomes. Exposed and comparison groups were matched on birth weight, race, education, and health insurance.  At ages 3, 5, and 7.5 years, 339 children (171 exposed) were assessed for behavior problems by using the Child Behavior Checklist. Generalized estimating equations were used to determine the effects of prenatal methamphetamine exposure, age, and the interaction of exposure and age on behavior problems. Caregiver psychological symptoms were assessed by using the Brief Symptom Inventory.ResultsAnalyses adjusted for covariates revealed that relative to age 3, children at 5 years had less externalizing and aggressive behavior and more internalizing behavior, somatic complaints, and withdrawn behavior.  By age 7.5, aggressive behavior continued to decrease, attention problems increased and withdrawn behavior decreased. There were no main effects for methamphetamine exposure and no interactions of exposure and age.  Caregiver psychological symptoms predicted all behavior problems and the quality of the home predicted externalizing problems and externalizing syndrome scores.ConclusionsBehavioral effects longitudinally from ages 3 to 7.5 years were not associated with prenatal methamphetamine exposure, whereas caregiver psychological symptoms and the quality of the home were predictors of behavior problems