He 2-104: A link between symbiotic stars and planetary nebulae

Ultraviolet, optical and infrared observations of He 2-104 are presented, and estimates for some of the physical properties of the nebular shell are made. It is argued that He 2-104 is in transition between the D-type symbiotic star and bipolar planetary nebula phases and, as such, represents a link between subclasses of these two types of objects. The model includes a binary system with a Mira variable and a hot, evolved star. Previous mass loss has resulted in the formation of a disk of gas and dust around the whole system, while the hot star has an accretion disk which produces the observed highly ionized emission line spectrum. Emission lines from cooler, lower density gas is also observed to come from the nebula. In addition, matter is flowing out of the system in a direction perpendicular to the disk with a high velocity and is impacting upon the previously-ejected red giant wind and/or the ambient interstellar medium

The Importance of Small Fire Refugia in the Central Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Fire refugia – the unburned areas within fire perimeters – are important to the survival of many taxa through fire events and the revegetation of post-fire landscapes. Previous work has shown that species use and benefit from small-scale fire refugia (1 m2 to 1000 m2), but our understanding of where and how fire refugia form is largely limited to the scale of remotely sensed data (i.e., 900 m2 Landsat pixels). To examine the causes and consequences of small fire refugia, we field-mapped all unburned patches ≥1 m2 within a contiguous 25.6 ha forest plot that burned at generally low-to-moderate severity in the 2013 Yosemite Rim Fire, California, USA. Within the Yosemite Forest Dynamics Plot (YFDP), there were 685 unburned patches ≥1 m2, covering a total unburned area of 12,597 m2 (4.9%). Small refugia occurred in all fire severity classifications. Random forest models showed that the proportion of unburned area of 100 m2 grid cells corresponded to pre-fire density and basal area of trees, distance to the nearest stream, and immediate fire mortality, but the relationships were complex and model accuracy was variable. From a pre-fire population of 34,061 total trees ≥1 cm diameter at breast height (1.37 m; DBH) within the plot (1,330 trees ha-1), trees of all five of the most common species and those DBH \u3c30 cm had higher immediate survival rates if their boles were wholly or partially within an unburned patch (P ≤0.001). Trees 1 cm ≤ DBH \u3c10 that survived were located closer to the center of the unburned patch than the edge (mean 1.1 m versus 0.6 m; ANOVA; P ≤0.001). Four-year survival rates for trees 1 cm ≤ DBH \u3c10 cm were 58.8% within small refugia and 2.7% in burned areas (P ≤0.001). Species richness and the Shannon Diversity Index (SDI) were associated with unburned quadrats in NMDS ordinations 3 years post-fire. Burn heterogeneity in mixed-conifer forests likely exists at all scales and small refugia contribute to diversity of forest species and structures. Thus, managers may wish to consider scales from 1-m2 to the landscape when designing fuel reduction prescriptions. The partial predictability of refugia location suggests that further work may lead to predictive models of refugial presence that have considerable potential to preserve ecological function or human habitation in fire-frequent forests

Predicting the Influence of Climate on Grassland Area Burned in Xilingol, China with Dynamic Simulations of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models

The influence of climate change on wildland fire has received considerable attention, but few studies have examined the potential effects of climate variability on grassland area burned within the extensive steppe land of Eurasia. We used a novel statistical approach borrowed from the social science literature—dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models—to explore the relationship between temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, sunlight, and carbon emissions on grassland area burned in Xilingol, a large grassland-dominated landscape of Inner Mongolia in northern China. We used an ARDL model to describe the influence of these variables on observed area burned between 2001 and 2018 and used dynamic simulations of the model to project the influence of climate on area burned over the next twenty years. Our analysis demonstrates that area burned was most sensitive to wind speed and temperature. A 1% increase in wind speed was associated with a 20.8% and 22.8% increase in observed and predicted area burned respectively, while a 1% increase in maximum temperature was associated with an 8.7% and 9.7% increase in observed and predicted future area burned. Dynamic simulations of ARDL models provide insights into the variability of area burned across Inner Mongolia grasslands in the context of anthropogenic climate change

Detecting Tree Mortality with Landsat-Derived Spectral Indices: Improving Ecological Accuracy by Examining Uncertainty

Satellite-derived fire severity metrics are a foundational tool used to estimate fire effects at the landscape scale. Changes in surface characteristics permit reasonably accurate delineation between burned and unburned areas, but variability in severity within burned areas is much more challenging to detect. Previous studies have relied primarily on categorical data to calibrate severity indices in terms of classification accuracy, but this approach does not readily translate into an expected amount of error in terms of actual tree mortality. We addressed this issue by examining a dataset of 40,370 geolocated trees that burned in the 2013 California Rim Fire using 36 Landsat-derived burn severity indices. The differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) performed reliably well, but the differenced SWIR:NIR ratio most accurately predicted percent basal area mortality and the differenced normalized vegetation index (dNDVI) most accurately predicted percent mortality of stems ≥10 cm diameter at breast height. Relativized versions of dNBR did not consistently improve accuracy; the relativized burn ratio (RBR) was generally equivalent to dNBR while RdNBR had consistently lower accuracy. There was a high degree of variability in observed tree mortality, especially at intermediate spectral index values. This translated into a considerable amount of uncertainty at the landscape scale, with an expected range in estimated percent basal area mortality greater than 37% for half of the area burned (\u3e50,000 ha). In other words, a 37% range in predicted mortality rate was insufficient to capture the observed mortality rate for half of the area burned. Uncertainty was even greater for percent stem mortality, with half of the area burned exceeding a 46% range in predicted mortality rate. The high degree of uncertainty in tree mortality that we observed challenges the confidence with which Landsat-derived spectral indices have been used to measure fire effects, and this has broad implications for research and management related to post-fire landscape complexity, distribution of seed sources, or persistence of fire refugia. We suggest ways to account for uncertainty that will facilitate a more nuanced and ecologically-accurate interpretation of fire effects. This study makes three key contributions to the field of remote sensing of fire effects: 1) we conducted the most comprehensive comparison to date of all previously published severity indices using the largest contiguous set of georeferenced tree mortality field data and revealed that the accuracy of both absolute and relative spectral indices depends on the tree mortality metric of interest; 2) we conducted this study in a single, large fire that enabled us to isolate variability due to intrinsic, within-landscape factors without the additional variance due to extrinsic factors associated with different biogeographies or climatic conditions; and 3) we identified the range in tree mortality that may be indistinguishable based on spectral indices derived from Landsat satellites, and we demonstrated how this variability translates into a considerable amount of uncertainty in fire effects at the landscape scale

Spatial aspects of tree mortality strongly differ between young and old-growth forests

Rates and spatial patterns of tree mortality are predicted to change during forest structural development. In young forests, mortality should be primarily density dependent due to competition for light, leading to an increasingly spatially uniform pattern of surviving trees. In contrast, mortality in old-growth forests should be primarily caused by contagious and spatially auto-correlated agents (e.g., insects, wind), causing spatial aggregation of surviving trees to increase through time. We tested these predictions by contrasting a three-decade record of tree mortality from replicated mapped permanent plots located in young (\u3c60-year-old) and old-growth (\u3e300-year-old) Abies amabilis forests. Trees in young forests died at a rate of 4.42% per year, whereas trees in old-growth forests died at 0.60% per year. Tree mortality in young forests was significantly aggregated, strong density dependent, and caused live tree patterns to become more uniform through time. Mortality in old-growth forests was spatially aggregated, but was density independent and did not change the spatial pattern of surviving trees. These results extend current theory by demonstrating that density-dependent competitive mortality leading to increasingly uniform three spacing in young forests ultimately transitions late in succession to a more diverse tree mortality regime that maintains spatial heterogeneity through time

Fuel Dynamics After Reintroduced Fire in an Old-Growth Sierra Nevada Mixed-Conifer Forest

Background: Surface fuel loadings are some of the most important factors contributing to fire intensity and fire spread. In old-growth forests where fire has been long excluded, surface fuel loadings can be high and can include woody debris ≥100 cm in diameter. We assessed surface fuel loadings in a long-unburned old-growth mixed-conifer forest in Yosemite National Park, California, USA, and assessed fuel consumption from a management-ignited fire set to control the progression of the 2013 Rim Fire. Specifically, we characterized the distribution and heterogeneity of pre-fire fuel loadings, both along transects and contained in duff mounds around large trees. We compared surface fuel consumption to that predicted by the standard First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) based on pre-fire fuel loadings and fuel moistures. We also assessed the relationship between tree basal area—calculated for two different spatial neighborhood scales—and pre-fire fuel loadings. Results: Pre-fire total surface fuel loading averaged 192 Mg ha−1 and was reduced by 79% by the fire to 41 Mg ha−1 immediately after fire. Most fuel components were reduced by 87% to 90% by the fire, with the exception of coarse woody debris (CWD), which was reduced by 60%. Litter depth in duff mounds were within 1 SD of plot means, but duff biomass for the largest trees (\u3e150 cm diameter at breast height [DBH]) exceeded plot background levels. Overstory basal area generally had significant positive relationships with pre-fire fuel loadings of litter, duff, 1-hour, and 10-hour fuels, but the strength of the relationships differed between overstory components (live, dead, all [live and dead], species), and negative relationships were observed between live Pinus lambertiana Douglas basal area and CWD. FOFEM over-predicted rotten CWD consumption and under-predicted duff consumption. Conclusions: Surface fuel loadings were characterized by heterogeneity and the presence of large pieces. This heterogeneity likely contributed to differential fire behavior at small scales and heterogeneity in the post-fire environment. The reductions in fuel loadings at our research site were in line with ecological restoration objectives; thus, ecologically restorative burning during fire suppression is possible

Potential Site Productivity Influences the Rate of Forest Structural Development

Development and maintenance of structurally complex forests in landscapes formerly managed for timber production is an increasingly common management objective. It has been postulated that the rate of forest structural development increases with site productivity. We tested this hypothesis for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) forests using a network of permanent study plots established following complete timber harvest of the original old-growth forests. Forest structural development was assessed by comparing empirical measures of live tree structure to published values for Douglas-fir forests spanning a range of ages and structural conditions. The rate of forest structural development—resilience—exhibited a positive relationship with site index, a measure of potential site productivity. Density of shade-intolerant conifers declined in all study stands from an initial range of 336–4068 trees/ha to a range of 168–642 trees/ha at the most recent measurement. Angiosperm tree species declined from an initial range of 40–371 trees/ha to zero in seven of the nine plots in which they were present. Trends in shade-tolerant tree density were complex: density ranged from 0 to 575 trees/ha at the first measurement and was still highly variable (25–389 trees/ha) at the most recent measurement. Multivariate analysis identified the abundance of hardwood tree species as the strongest compositional trend apparent over the study period. However, structural variables showed a strong positive association with increasing shade-tolerant basal area and little or no association with abundance of hardwood species. Thus, while tree species succession and forest structural development occur contemporaneously, they are not equivalent processes, and their respective rates are not necessarily linearly related. The results of this study support the idea that silvicultural treatments to accelerate forest structural development should be concentrated on lower productivity sites when the management objective is reserve-wide coverage of structurally complex forests. Alternatively, high-productivity sites should be prioritized for restoration treatments when the management objective is to develop structurally complex forests on a portion of the landscape

Simplified Paper Format for Detecting HIV Drug Resistance in Clinical Specimens by Oligonucleotide Ligation

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is a chronic infection that can be managed by antiretroviral treatment (ART). However, periods of suboptimal viral suppression during lifelong ART can select for HIV drug resistant (DR) variants. Transmission of drug resistant virus can lessen or abrogate ART efficacy. Therefore, testing of individuals for drug resistance prior to initiation of treatment is recommended to ensure effective ART. Sensitive and inexpensive HIV genotyping methods are needed in low-resource settings where most HIV infections occur. The oligonucleotide ligation assay (OLA) is a sensitive point mutation assay for detection of drug resistance mutations in HIV pol. The current OLA involves four main steps from sample to analysis: (1) lysis and/or nucleic acid extraction, (2) amplification of HIV RNA or DNA, (3) ligation of oligonucleotide probes designed to detect single nucleotide mutations that confer HIV drug resistance, and (4) analysis via oligonucleotide surface capture, denaturation, and detection (CDD). The relative complexity of these steps has limited its adoption in resource-limited laboratories. Here we describe a simplification of the 2.5-hour plate-format CDD to a 45-minute paper-format CDD that eliminates the need for a plate reader. Analysis of mutations at four HIV-1 DR codons (K103N, Y181C, M184V, and G190A) in 26 blood specimens showed a strong correlation of the ratios of mutant signal to total signal between the paper CDD and the plate CDD. The assay described makes the OLA easier to perform in low resource laboratories