561 research outputs found

    Non-additive response of the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere climate to aerosol forcing in a climate model with interactive chemistry

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    A suite of chemistry‐climate model simulations, forced by pairs of anthropogenic forcings [comprising greenhouse gases (GHGs), ozone depleting substances (ODSs), or aerosols], were employed to investigate whether the high‐latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) circulation response to these forcings is linearly additive, a common assumption in attribution studies. We find that the geographical pattern of sea‐level pressure (SLP) response to a combination of GHGs and ODSs is linearly additive. However, we find significant differences in the SLP response when combining GHGs and aerosols compared to the sum of the individual forcings, a non‐additivity that is currently masked by the dominance of the ODSs forcing. This non‐linearity also results in changes to the SH split jet. These results were obtained using a coupled chemistry‐climate model, indicating that the non‐linear response is due to chemical interactions between the forcing agents. As such, future simulations investigating a post‐ozone hole Southern Hemisphere climate should consider this chemical interaction

    Ozone chemistry on tidally locked M dwarf planets

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    This is the final version. Available from Oxford University Press via the DOI in this recordWe use the Met Office Unified Model to explore the potential of a tidally locked M dwarf planet, nominally Proxima Centauri b irradiated by a quiescent version of its host star, to sustain an atmospheric ozone layer. We assume a slab ocean surface layer, and an Earth-like atmosphere of nitrogen and oxygen with trace amounts of ozone and water vapour. We describe ozone chemistry using the Chapman mechanism and the hydrogen oxide (HOx, describing the sum of OH and HO2) catalytic cycle. We find that Proxima Centauri radiates with sufficient UV energy to initialize the Chapman mechanism. The result is a thin but stable ozone layer that peaks at 0.75 parts per million at 25 km. The quasi-stationary distribution of atmospheric ozone is determined by photolysis driven by incoming stellar radiation and by atmospheric transport. Ozone mole fractions are smallest in the lowest 15 km of the atmosphere at the sub-stellar point and largest in the nightside gyres. Above 15 km the ozone distribution is dominated by an equatorial jet stream that circumnavigates the planet. The nightside ozone distribution is dominated by two cyclonic Rossby gyres that result in localized ozone hotspots. On the dayside the atmospheric lifetime is determined by the HOx catalytic cycle and deposition to the surface, with nightside lifetimes due to chemistry much longer than timescales associated with atmospheric transport. Surface UV values peak at the substellar point with values of 0.01 W/m2 , shielded by the overlying atmospheric ozone layer but more importantly by water vapour clouds.Leverhulme TrustScience and Technology Facilities Council (STFC

    Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions.

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    Explosive volcanic eruptions affect climate, but how climate change affects the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unexplored. We combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to today, a consequence of future tropopause height rise and unchanged eruptive column height. In contrast, global-mean radiative forcing, stratospheric warming and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30%, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively. These changes are driven by an aerosol size decrease, mainly caused by the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and an increase in eruptive column height. Quantifying changes in both eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is therefore key to assessing the climate response to future eruptions

    Climate Projections Very Likely Underestimate Future Volcanic Forcing and Its Climatic Effects

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    Standard climate projections represent future volcanic eruptions by a constant forcing inferred from 1850 to 2014 volcanic forcing. Using the latest ice-core and satellite records to design stochastic eruption scenarios, we show that there is a 95% probability that explosive eruptions could emit more sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere over 2015–2100 than current standard climate projections (i.e., ScenarioMIP). Our simulations using the UK Earth System Model with interactive stratospheric aerosols show that for a median future eruption scenario, the 2015–2100 average global-mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) is double that used in ScenarioMIP, with small-magnitude eruptions (<3 Tg of SO2) contributing 50% to SAOD perturbations. We show that volcanic effects on large-scale climate indicators, including global surface temperature, sea level and sea ice extent, are underestimated in ScenarioMIP because current climate projections do not fully account for the recurrent frequency of volcanic eruptions of different magnitudes

    Polar stratospheric clouds initiated by mountain waves in a global chemistry-climate model: A missing piece in fully modelling polar stratospheric ozone depletion

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    An important source of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which play a crucial role in controlling polar stratospheric ozone depletion, is the temperature fluctuations induced by mountain waves. These enable stratospheric temperatures to fall below the threshold value for PSC formation in regions of negative temperature perturbations or cooling phases induced by the waves even if the synoptic-scale temperatures are too high. However, this formation mechanism is usually missing in global chemistry–climate models because these temperature fluctuations are neither resolved nor parameterised. Here, we investigate in detail the episodic and localised wintertime stratospheric cooling events produced over the Antarctic Peninsula by a parameterisation of mountain-wave-induced temperature fluctuations inserted into a 30-year run of the global chemistry–climate configuration of the UM-UKCA (Unified Model – United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol) model. Comparison of the probability distribution of the parameterised cooling phases with those derived from climatologies of satellite-derived AIRS brightness temperature measurements and high-resolution radiosonde temperature soundings from Rothera Research Station on the Antarctic Peninsula shows that they broadly agree with the AIRS observations and agree well with the radiosonde observations, particularly in both cases for the “cold tails” of the distributions. It is further shown that adding the parameterised cooling phase to the resolved and synoptic-scale temperatures in the UM-UKCA model results in a considerable increase in the number of instances when minimum temperatures fall below the formation temperature for PSCs made from ice water during late austral autumn and early austral winter and early austral spring, and without the additional cooling phase the temperature rarely falls below the ice frost point temperature above the Antarctic Peninsula in the model. Similarly, it was found that the formation potential for PSCs made from ice water was many times larger if the additional cooling is included. For PSCs made from nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles it was only during October that the additional cooling is required for temperatures to fall below the NAT formation temperature threshold (despite more NAT PSCs occurring during other months). The additional cooling phases also resulted in an increase in the surface area density of NAT particles throughout the winter and early spring, which is important for chlorine activation. The parameterisation scheme was finally shown to make substantial differences to the distribution of total column ozone during October, resulting from a shift in the position of the polar vortex
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