Charmed hadron signals of partonic medium

We present a short review of our results on the collectivity and the suppression pattern of charmed mesons in heavy-ion collisions based on the microscopic Hadron-String Dynamics (HSD) transport approach for different scenarios of charm interactions with the surrounding matter - the 'comover' dissociation by mesons with further recreation by D+Dbar channels and 'pre-hadronic' interaction scenarios. While at SPS energies the hadronic 'comover' absorption scenario is found to be compatible with the experimental data, the dynamics of c and cbar quarks at RHIC are dominated by partonic or 'pre-hadronic' interactions in the strongly coupled quark-gluon plasma stage and cannot be modeled by pure hadronic interactions. We find that the collective flow of charm in the purely hadronic scenario appears compatible with the data at SPS energies but underestimates the data at top RHIC energies. Thus, the large elliptic flow v2 of D mesons and the low R_AA(pT) of J/Psi seen experimentally at RHIC have to be attributed to early interactions of non-hadronic degrees of freedom. Simultaneously, we observe that non-hadronic interactions are mandatory in order to describe the narrowing of the J/Psi rapidity distribution from p+p to central Au+Au collisions at the top RHIC energy. We demonstrate additionally that the strong quenching of high-pT J/Psi's in central Au+Au collisions indicates that a fraction of final J/Psi mesons is created by a coalescence mechanism close to the phase boundary.Comment: Talk given at International Conference on Strangeness in Quark Matter (SQM 2008), Beijing, China, 6-10 Oct 200

Contribution of biomass fires to black carbon supply in a tropical river basin assessed using a Lagrangian atmospheric transport model and MODIS burned area product

Black carbon (BC) is known to be a potential sink of carbon for the global carbon cycle, particularly if long-term ocean stores are reached. Fluvial transport to the oceans can occur through the dissolution of BC in river water. Evidence from the Paraiba do Sul river basin, Brazil suggests that river DBC concentration is related to charcoal formed during the deforestation of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. However, we highlight several key potential sources of BC to the basin that are yet to be considered. We hypothesize that external biomass fires are a source of BC to the basin on the basis that BC released from them can be transported over large distances before being deposited. This hypothesis is tested by quantifying the number of biomass fires intercepted by trajectories en route to the basin using the HYSPLIT model and a MODIS burned area dataset. We then create a Black Carbon Fallout Index (BCFI) which is rationalized by our assumption that atmospheric BC delivery to the basin is proportional to the number of interceptions of air masses en route to the basin. Our results suggest that the BC fallout from air masses reaching the basin in the dry season can explain 50% of the variance in DBC measured in the PSR channel during a subsequent collection campaign (p<.001). Spatial and temporal variations in the supply of BC to the basin throughout the dry season may in part be linked to the fires associated with the cultivation of sugarcane in southeast Brazil

Space-time calibration of wind speed forecasts from regional climate models

Numerical weather predictions (NWP) are systematically subject to errors due to the deterministic solutions used by numerical models to simulate the atmosphere. Statistical postprocessing techniques are widely used nowadays for NWP calibration. However, time-varying bias is usually not accommodated by such models. Its calibration performance is also sensitive to the temporal window used for training. This paper proposes space-time models that extend the main statistical postprocessing approaches to calibrate NWP model outputs. Trans-Gaussian random fields are considered to account for meteorological variables with asymmetric behavior. Data augmentation is used to account for censuring in the response variable. The benefits of the proposed extensions are illustrated through the calibration of hourly 10 m wind speed forecasts in Southeastern Brazil coming from the Eta model.Comment: 43 pages, 13 figure

Large-scale commodity agriculture exacerbates the climatic impacts of Amazonian deforestation

In the Amazon rainforest, land use following deforestation is diverse and dynamic. Mounting evidence indicates that the climatic impacts of forest loss can also vary considerably, depending on specific features of the affected areas. The size of the deforested patches, for instance, was shown to modulate the characteristics of local climatic impacts. Nonetheless, the influence of different types of land use and management strategies on the magnitude of local climatic changes remains uncertain. Here, we evaluated the impacts of large-scale commodity farming and rural settlements on surface temperature, rainfall patterns, and energy fluxes. Our results reveal that changes in land-atmosphere coupling are induced not only by deforestation size but also, by land use type and management patterns inside the deforested areas. We provide evidence that, in comparison with rural settlements, deforestation caused by large-scale commodity agriculture is more likely to reduce convective rainfall and increase land surface temperature. We demonstrate that these differences are mainly caused by a more intensive management of the land, resulting in significantly lower vegetation cover throughout the year, which reduces latent heat flux. Our findings indicate an urgent need for alternative agricultural practices, as well as forest restoration, for maintaining ecosystem processes and mitigating change in the local climates across the Amazon basin.Peer reviewe

Use of MODIS Sensor Images Combined with Reanalysis Products to Retrieve Net Radiation in Amazonia

In the Amazon region, the estimation of radiation fluxes through remote sensing techniques is hindered by the lack of ground measurements required as input in the models, as well as the difficulty to obtain cloud-free images. Here, we assess an approach to estimate net radiation (Rn) and its components under all-sky conditions for the Amazon region through the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model utilizing only remote sensing and reanalysis data. The study period comprised six years, between January 2001–December 2006, and images from MODIS sensor aboard the Terra satellite and GLDAS reanalysis products were utilized. The estimates were evaluated with flux tower measurements within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) project. Comparison between estimates obtained by the proposed method and observations from LBA towers showed errors between 12.5% and 16.4% and 11.3% and 15.9% for instantaneous and daily Rn, respectively. Our approach was adequate to minimize the problem related to strong cloudiness over the region and allowed to map consistently the spatial distribution of net radiation components in Amazonia. We conclude that the integration of reanalysis products and satellite data, eliminating the need for surface measurements as input model, was a useful proposition for the spatialization of the radiation fluxes in the Amazon region, which may serve as input information needed by algorithms that aim to determine evapotranspiration, the most important component of the Amazon hydrological balance

Methods to Evaluate Land-Atmosphere Exchanges in Amazonia Based on Satellite Imagery and Ground Measurements

During the last three decades, intensive campaigns and experiments have been conducted for acquiring micrometeorological data in the Amazonian ecosystems, which has increased our understanding of the variation, especially seasonally, of the total energy available for the atmospheric heating process by the surface, evapotranspiration and carbon exchanges. However, the measurements obtained by such experiments generally cover small areas and are not representative of the spatial variability of these processes. This chapter aims to discuss several algorithms developed to estimate surface energy and carbon fluxes combining satellite data and micrometeorological observations, highlighting the potentialities and limitations of such models for applications in the Amazon region. We show that the use of these models presents an important role in understanding the spatial and temporal patterns of biophysical surface parameters in a region where most of the information is local. Data generated may be used as inputs in earth system surface models allowing the evaluation of the impact, both in regional as well as global scales, caused by land-use and land-cover changes

Land use still matters after deforestation

Careful management of deforested Amazonian land cannot replace, but must complement, efforts to preserve the rainforest. Sustainable agricultural practices that promote diverse uses can help minimise climate and environmental impacts.Peer reviewe

Forest disturbance and growth processes are reflected in the geographical distribution of large canopy gaps across the Brazilian Amazon

Canopy gaps are openings in the forest canopy resulting from branch fall and tree mortality events. The geographical distribution of large canopy gaps may reflect underlying variation in mortality and growth processes. However, a lack of data at the appropriate scale has limited our ability to study this relationship until now. We detected canopy gaps using a unique LiDAR dataset consisting of 650 transects randomly distributed across 2500 km(2) of the Brazilian Amazon. We characterized the size distribution of canopy gaps using a power law and we explore the variation in the exponent, alpha. We evaluated how the alpha varies across the Amazon, in response to disturbance by humans and natural environmental processes that influence tree mortality rates. We observed that South-eastern forests contained a higher proportion of large gaps than North-western, which is consistent with recent work showing greater tree mortality rates in the Southeast than the Northwest. Regions characterized by strong wind gust speeds, frequent lightning and greater water shortage also had a high proportion of large gaps, indicating that geographical variation in alpha is a reflection of underlying disturbance processes. Forests on fertile soils were also found to contain a high proportion of large gaps, in part because trees grow tall on these sites and create large gaps when they fall; thus, canopy gap analysis picked up differences in growth as well as mortality processes. Finally, we found that human-modified forests had a higher proportion of large gaps than intact forests, as we would expect given that these forests have been disturbed. Synthesis. The proportion of large gaps in the forest canopy varied substantially over the Brazilian Amazon. We have shown that the trends can be explained by geographical variation in disturbance and growth. The frequency of extreme weather events is predicted to increase under climate change, and changes could lead to greater forest disturbance, which should be detectable as an increased proportion of large gaps in intact forests.Peer reviewe

Pervasive Rise of Small-scale Deforestation in Amazonia

Understanding forest loss patterns in Amazonia, the Earth’s largest rainforest region, is critical for effective forest conservation and management. Following the most detailed analysis to date, spanning the entire Amazon and extending over a 14-year period (2001–2014), we reveal significant shifts in deforestation dynamics of Amazonian forests. Firstly, hotspots of Amazonian forest loss are moving away from the southern Brazilian Amazon to Peru and Bolivia. Secondly, while the number of new large forest clearings (>50 ha) has declined significantly over time (46%), the number of new small clearings (<1 ha) increased by 34% between 2001–2007 and 2008–2014. Thirdly, we find that small-scale low-density forest loss expanded markedly in geographical extent during 2008–2014. This shift presents an important and alarming new challenge for forest conservation, despite reductions in overall deforestation rates

Fire Responses to the 2010 and 2015/2016 Amazonian Droughts

Extreme droughts in Amazonia cause anomalous increase in fire occurrence, disrupting the stability of environmental, social, and economic systems. Thus, understanding how droughts affect fire patterns in this region is essential for anticipating and planning actions for remediation of possible impacts. Focused on the Brazilian Amazon biome, we investigated fire responses to the 2010 and 2015/2016 Amazonian droughts using remote sensing data. Our results revealed that the 2015/2016 drought surpassed the 2010 drought in intensity and extent. During the 2010 drought, we found a maximum area of 846,800 km2 (24% of the Brazilian Amazon biome) with significant (p ≤ 0.05) rainfall decrease in the first trimester, while during the 2015/2016 the maximum area reached 1,702,800 km2 (47% of the Brazilian Amazon biome) in the last trimester of 2015. On the other hand, the 2010 drought had a maximum area of 840,400 km2 (23% of the Brazilian Amazon biome) with significant (p ≤ 0.05) land surface temperature increase in the first trimester, while during the 2015/2016 drought the maximum area was 2,188,800 km2 (61% of the Brazilian Amazon biome) in the last trimester of 2015. Unlike the 2010 drought, during the 2015/2016 drought, significant positive anomalies of active fire and CO2 emissions occurred mainly during the wet season, between October 2015 and March 2016. During the 2010 drought, positive active fire anomalies resulted from the simultaneous increase of burned forest, non-forest vegetation and productive lands. During the 2015/2016 drought, however, this increase was dominated by burned forests. The two analyzed droughts emitted together 0.47 Pg CO2, with 0.23 Pg CO2 in 2010, 0.15 Pg CO2 in 2015 and 0.09 Pg CO2 in 2016, which represented, respectively, 209%, 136%, 82% of annual Brazil’s national target for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation by 2017 (approximately 0.11 Pg CO2 year-1 from 2006 to 2017). Finally, we anticipate that the increase of fires during the droughts showed here may intensify and can become more frequent in Amazonia due to changes in climatic variability if no regulations on fire use are implemented