The changing nature of demand for public transport in Brisbane: state-of-play and future trends

This Working Paper reports on contract research commissioned by the Policy & Planning Unit of the Traffic & Transport Branch of the Brisbane City Council (BCC). Current BCC and Queensland Transport targets for the mode share of PT in Brisbane and the South East Queensland (SEQ) Region call for a substantial increase in PT usage in both absolute and relative terms. In order to assess the appropriateness of those targets, it is necessary to determine: (a) recent trends in Brisbane PT patronage levels; (b) the set of demographic, socio-economic and employment trends which directly or indirectly impact on PT markets; (c) the likely future trends in those factors; and (d) the network supply and technological changes which will impact on the performance of competing modes. Decisions about the strategies and actions needed to bring about the desired PT mode share targets need to be informed by such an analysis. Sections 2, 3 and 4 of this Working Paper address the above issues in turn. Section 5 presents a discussion of the main implications of the findings for future PT demand in Brisbane. The strategies likely to be necessary to achieve the PT mode share targets set by the BCC for the next 10 years, are also discussed at this stage

A Communication Proof Equilibrium Concept

This paper proposes an equilibrium concept for the classes of environments in which players can communicate with each other but cannot make binding agreements. The communication-proof equilibrium is intended to be regarded as an extension of both coalition- and renegotiation-proof equilibria. Conceptual foundations for this particular definition are discussed as it is confronted with other definitions in these environments.Publicad

The role of observability in futures markets

Allaz (1992) and Allaz and Vila (1993) show that in an oligopolistic industry the introduction of a futures market that operates prior to the spot market induces more competitive outcomes. Hughes and Kao (1997) show that this result presumes that firms’ future positions are perfectly observed, and that when firms’ positions are not observed the Cournot outcome arises. We study an alternative formulation of observability, where the behavior of participants in the futures market is explicitly analyzed, and show that this approach leads to different results. Imperfect observability induces more competitive outcomes than Allaz and Vila’s model.Publicad

The role of observability in futures markets

Allaz and Vila (1993) show that oligopolistic industries may become more competitive if a futures market is added previous to the spot market. Later, Hughes and Kao (1997) show that this result occurs only if positions in the futures market are observed, and that without this condition the result is again the Cournot equilibrium. In this work we study different explicit formulations of observability and argue that the lack of it may induce a result very different from the one anticipated in Hughes and Kao (1997). By comparing the game forms of the different models, one can discuss about the suitability of either of them. In particular, the one we find most reasonable fit better some of the stylized facts of an industry like the power market in the U.K

Strategic interaction between futures and spot markets.

There is a literature (e.g., Allaz and Vila, 1992 and Hughes and Kao, 1997) showing that in an oligopolistic context, the presence of a futures market induces firms to use it in order to increase its market share. The consequence of this behavior is that the total quantity supplied by the industry increases, thus making the oligopolistic outcome closer to the competitive equilibrium. In the present work, we propose a model to study the interaction of spot and futures markets that does not imply this pro-competitive effect. The model is the same as in Allaz and Vila in the sense that firms have infinitely many moments to trade in the futures market before the spot market takes place. We analyze the equilibria in the infinite case directly and show that many equilibria emerge in a kind of folk-theorem result (but ours is not a repeated game). The equilibrium in which firms do not use the forward market is particularly robust as it satisfies the most demanding definition of renegotiation-proofuess. Furthermore, if firms are allowed to buy in the futures market, they can sustain the monopolistic outcome in a renegotiation-proof equilibrium (notice that there is only one period in the spot market). We also study the role of information in the model and argue that our results fit better stylized facts of some industries like the power market in the U.K.Futures markets; Cournot competition; Collusion;

Bagwell's paradox, forward induction and outside option games

In Stackelberg-like games there is an advantage of moving first. However, Bagwell (1995) shows that this result may not hold if the second player can make only imperfect observations. We explore whether this paradox also holds when the advantage comes from forward induction arguments in the class of outside option games.Bagwell's paradox, Commitment, Observability, Noise, Outside option games, Forward induction

The evaluation of E-business related technologies in the Railway Industry

For the purposes of this paper, e-business is defined as: "the performance, automisation and organisation of transactions, or chains of them, and the gathering and publishing of data, electronically over a communication protocol" Little research has been conducted either into how e-business technology can be successfully evaluated, or into the associated costs and benefits specifically related to the transportation and railway industries. Based upon a review of the current literature and a series of interviews held with railway operators, track managers and transportation customers from the Australian Fortune 100, the paper puts forward a framework for the evaluation of e-business investments within the railway industry. The research reported here is aimed at developing a flexible interface that enables the decision maker to assess and evaluate a wide variety of complex interacting variables. The proposed approach uses a variety of evaluation methods, as opposed to searching for a single "best" approach. Additionally, an attempt is being made to include the complex interaction between the implementation of the new technology and the changing organisational setting. A model is proposed using fuzzy logic to handle incomplete and uncertain knowledge; as well as to combine criteria within a conceptual model from which "real-worth" evaluations can be performed. This model provides a systematic approach to guide the decision maker in the deployment of e-business and emerging technologies in the industry. After discussing the main findings from a literature review on the use of evaluation frameworks in IT related projects, the paper deals with the proposed framework in detail. The use of empirical data, which was obtained transportation customers to help define the main framework factors, is also discussed. Finally, the paper summarises the main implications for rail freight of customers’s perceptions and stated needs in the e-business domain

Modelling rail track deterioration and maintenance: current practices and future needs

As commercialisation and privatisation of railway systems reach the political agendas in a number of countries, including Australia, the separation of infrastructure from operating business dictates that track costs need to be shared on an equitable basis. There is also a world-wide trend towards increased pressures on rail track infrastructure through increases in axle loads and train speeds. Such productivity and customer service driven pressures inevitably lead to reductions in the life of track components and increases in track maintenance costs. This paper provides a state-of-the-art review of track degradation modeling, as well as an overview of track maintenance decision support systems currently in use in North America and Europe. The essential elements of a maintenance optimisation model currently under development are also highlighted

Inventory management in railway sleepers: A simulation model for replacement strategies

This paper describes the development of a simulation model to assess the inventory requirements of alternative rail sleeper replacement strategies. The main aim of the model is to determine the optimal replacement strategy, given replacement costs and resultant train operating cost benefits. We consider the replacement problem under the following assumptions: The time to failure under constant stress follows a Weibull distribution and the scale parameter is a function of stress level and the three stress levels under normal (all adjacent units are good), medium-stress (one adjacent unit has failed) and high-stress conditions (two adjacent units are failed) are considered. The cumulative exposure model is used to model the failure distributions. The operational cost per unit time depends on the maximum number of consecutive failed units. The replacement cost consists of the fixed cost and variable cost proportional to the number of units replaced. A finite horizon is considered and total expected cost is a criterion for comparing the proposed policies. The model has been tested using rail system data and the results are presented in this paper