Bond Risk Premia Forecasting: A Simple Approach for Extracting Macroeconomic Information from a Panel of Indicators

We propose a simple but effective estimation procedure to extract the level and the volatility dynamics of a latent macroeconomic factor from a panel of observable indicators. Our approach is based on a multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic exact factor model that can take into account the heteroskedasticity feature shown by most macroeconomic variables and relies on an iterated Kalman filter procedure. In simulations we show the unbiasedness of the proposed estimator and its superiority to different approaches introduced in the literature. Simulation results are confirmed in applications to real inflation data with the goal of forecasting long-term bond risk premia. Moreover, we find that the extracted level and conditional variance of the latent factor for inflation are strongly related to NBER business cycles

Precambrian nomenclature in Kansas

The informal stratigraphic term “Precambrian” is replaced by formal nomenclature—Proterozoic and Archean Eonothems/Eons—and the informal term Hadean. The Phanerozoic Eonothem/Eon, representing all rocks younger than the Proterozoic, is added. The Proterozoic is further divided into Paleoproterozoic, Mesoproterozoic, and Neoproterozoic Erathems/Eras. The name Rice Formation (Scott, 1966) is abandoned, and the use of the informal term “Rice unit” is recommended. The proposed name Rice Series (Berendsen, 1994) is not accepted. These changes are adopted by the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS) and the stratigraphic nomenclature of Zeller (1968) has been revised accordingly

New Stratigraphic Rank for the Carboniferous, Mississippian, and Pennsylvanian in Kansas

A new classification for the Carboniferous System/Period is formally adopted by the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS), and Zeller (1968) is modified accordingly. The Carboniferous is the system/period between the Devonian and Permian, and the Mississippian and Pennsylvanian are subsystems/subperiods of the Carboniferous. The Mississippian is subdivided into Lower, Middle, and Upper Mississippian Series and the Pennsylvanian is subdivided into Lower, Middle, and Upper Pennsylvanian Series. Regional stage names remain unchanged

Clarification and Changes in Permian Stratigraphic Nomenclature in Kansas

This paper outlines Permian nomenclature changes to Zeller (1968) that have been adopted by the Kansas Geological Survey. The Permian System/Period, Cisuralian Series/Epoch, and Asselian Stage/Age are established at the base of the Bennett Shale Member of the Red Eagle Limestone. Series/epoch names Wolfcampian, Leonardian, and Guadalupian are retained and usage of Gearyan, Cimarronian, and Custerian is abandoned. The repositioned Carboniferous-Permian boundary divides the Council Grove Group into Carboniferous (Upper Pennsylvanian Series/Epoch; Virgilian Stage/Age) and Permian (Wolfcampian Series/Epoch) segments

Mississippian Stratigraphic Nomenclature Revisions in Kansas

This paper reviews proposed Mississippian nomenclature changes in Kansas and outlines the changes to Zeller (1968) that have been adopted by the Kansas Geological Survey. The Sedalia Dolomite is changed to the Sedalia Formation and the Northview Shale is changed to Northview Formation due to lateral lithology changes. The Short Creek Oolite Member as originally defined and described by Smith and Siebenthal (1907) at the type section in Kansas is reinstated. The Cowley Formation as originally defined and described by Lee (1940) in Kansas is reinstated. The Ste. Genevieve Limestone is placed as the basal formation of the Chesteran Stage

Enigmatic Red Beds Exposed at Point of Rocks, Cimarron National Grassland, Morton County, Kansas: Chronostratigraphic Constraints from Uranium-Lead Dating of Detrital Zircons

Point of Rocks, a high-relief bluff overlooking the Cimarron River valley in Morton County, Kansas, is capped by distinct white beds of Neogene Ogallala Formation calcrete that overlie red beds of shale, siltstone, and sandstone. These unfossiliferous red beds are currently assigned to the Jurassic System; however, their age has long been debated due to a lack of marker beds, index fossils, and nearby correlative outcrops. As a result, geologists over the years have assigned the rocks to systems ranging from the Permian to the Cretaceous. In this study, four stratigraphic sections were measured in the red beds and three bulk samples were collected to determine the uranium-lead age distributions of detrital zircon (DZ) populations. Red-bed strata composed of fissile shale and sandstone are interpreted as alluvial overbank deposits, while dominantly trough cross-bedded and planar-laminated sandstones are interpreted as tidally influenced fluvial deposits. Detrital zircon age peaks can be grouped into at least seven subpopulations with a youngest single zircon age of 263.8 ± 12.1 Ma, a more conservative age of 293.0 ± 6.95 Ma based on the youngest grouping of three grain ages overlapping at 2σ, and a complete absence of Mesozoic age zircons. In addition, copper oxides along partings and fractures suggest that the red beds once hosted copper sulfides, a common constituent of regional Permian-Triassic red beds. The DZ data--in conjunction with the identification of the Permian Day Creek Dolomite marker bed in logs of nearby drilling tests--strongly suggest that the enigmatic red beds cropping out at the base of Point of Rocks should be assigned to the Guadalupian Big Basin Formation, the uppermost Permian unit in Kansas

A Review of the Stratigraphy of the Ogallala Formation and Revision of Neogene (“Tertiary”) Nomenclature in Kansas

The member names for the Ogallala Formation (including the Valentine, Ash Hollow, and Kimball) in Kansas of Zeller (1968) are abandoned. The Ogallala Formation in Kansas includes strata of Miocene and earliest Pliocene age, revising earlier correlation to the Pliocene only (Zeller, 1968). The Kansas Geological Survey is abandoning use of the term "Tertiary," to be replaced by the term "Neogene." International stage boundaries for the Neogene have not been established in Kansas

A Review of the Stratigraphy of the Ogallala Formation and Revision of Neogene ("Tertiary") Nomenclature in Kansas

The member names for the Ogallala Formation (including the Valentine, Ash Hollow, and Kimball) in Kansas of Zeller (1968) are abandoned. The Ogallala Formation in Kansas includes strata of Miocene and earliest Pliocene age, revising earlier correlation to the Pliocene only (Zeller, 1968). The Kansas Geological Survey is abandoning use of the term "Tertiary," to be replaced by the term "Neogene." International stage boundaries for the Neogene have not been established in Kansas

A Review of the Stratigraphy of the Ogallala Formation and Revision of Neogene ("Tertiary") Nomenclature in Kansas

The member names for the Ogallala Formation (including the Valentine, Ash Hollow, and Kimball) in Kansas of Zeller (1968) are abandoned. The Ogallala Formation in Kansas includes strata of Miocene and earliest Pliocene age, revising earlier correlation to the Pliocene only (Zeller, 1968). The Kansas Geological Survey is abandoning use of the term "Tertiary," to be replaced by the term "Neogene." International stage boundaries for the Neogene have not been established in Kansas