Predictive validity of the examination for the Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom

The constant public demand for high-quality medical services drives an associated demand for professional doctors, and requires them to take high-stakes exams. MRCP(UK) is a major examination for physicians in the UK, which aims to assess their knowledge, skills and appropriate attitudes – all key aspects of being a medical professional. Although the existing literature provides extensive evidence supporting the quality of MRCP(UK), this research aimed to add to the existing body of knowledge by investigating the predictive validity of MRCP(UK), i.e. examining whether it truly selects candidates who possess the above-mentioned qualities. This research therefore investigated the relationships between MRCP(UK) scores and results of seventeen knowledge exams and two clinical skills assessments (including specialty exams and MRCGP), training performance assessment outcomes (ARCP), and cases of licence limitations and erasures. Operating with the hypothesis that MRCP(UK) would predict all of the above-mentioned criteria, a retrospective longitudinal approach was assumed. The main sample contained records of 50,311 MRCP(UK) candidates attempting MRCP(UK) between May 2003 and January 2011; however, the analyses were performed on smaller samples, from 8 to 33,359 cases, depending on the size of the criterial dataset. The results of univariate and multivariate analyses supported the hypothesis. MRCP(UK) scores were indeed predictive of results of all knowledge exams and clinical assessments (meta-analysed average effects: r=0.69 for Part I, r=0.70 for Part II, 0.48 for PACES), and of performance in specialty training and issues with the licence to practice (on average: r=0.24 for Part I, and r=0.22 for Part II and PACES). The magnitudes of these validity coefficients were consistent with the theoretical notions of psychometrics and concurred with the findings of published studies. In view of the evidence it was concluded that MRCP(UK) is a valid exam. The limitations of this study, directions for future research, and general implications were discussed

Resitting a high-stakes postgraduate medical examination on multiple occasions: nonlinear multilevel modelling of performance in the MRCP(UK) examinations

Failure rates in postgraduate examinations are often high and many candidates therefore retake examinations on several or even many times. Little, however, is known about how candidates perform across those multiple attempts. A key theoretical question to be resolved is whether candidates pass at a resit because they have got better, having acquired more knowledge or skills, or whether they have got lucky, chance helping them to get over the pass mark. In the UK, the issue of resits has become of particular interest since the General Medical Council issued a consultation and is considering limiting the number of attempts candidates may make at examinations

Titanium phosphate glass microcarriers induce enhanced osteogenic cell proliferation and human mesenchymal stem cell protein expression.

In this study, we have developed 50- to 100-µm-sized titanium phosphate glass microcarriers (denoted as Ti5) that show enhanced proliferation of human mesenchymal stem cells and MG63 osteosarcoma cells, as well as enhanced human mesenchymal stem cell expression of bone differentiation markers, in comparison with commercially available glass microspheres at all time points. We also demonstrate that these microcarriers provide superior human mesenchymal stem cell proliferation with conventional Dulbecco's Modified Eagle medium than with a specially developed commercial stem cell medium. The microcarrier proliferative capacity is revealed by a 24-fold increase in MG63 cell numbers in spinner flask bioreactor studies performed over a 7-day period, versus only a 6-fold increase in control microspheres under the same conditions; the corresponding values of Ti5 and control microspheres under static culture are 8-fold and 7-fold, respectively. The capability of guided osteogenic differentiation is confirmed by ELISAs for bone morphogenetic protein-2 and osteopontin, which reveal significantly greater expression of these markers, especially osteopontin, by human mesenchymal stem cells on the Ti5 microspheres than on the control. Scanning electron microscopy and confocal laser scanning microscopy images reveal favorable MG63 and human mesenchymal stem cell adhesion on the Ti5 microsphere surfaces. Thus, the results demonstrate the suitability of the developed microspheres for use as microcarriers in bone tissue engineering applications

Sixteen years of bathymetry and waves at San Diego beaches.

Sustained, quantitative observations of nearshore waves and sand levels are essential for testing beach evolution models, but comprehensive datasets are relatively rare. We document beach profiles and concurrent waves monitored at three southern California beaches during 2001-2016. The beaches include offshore reefs, lagoon mouths, hard substrates, and cobble and sandy (medium-grained) sediments. The data span two energetic El Niño winters and four beach nourishments. Quarterly surveys of 165 total cross-shore transects (all sites) at 100 m alongshore spacing were made from the backbeach to 8 m depth. Monthly surveys of the subaerial beach were obtained at alongshore-oriented transects. The resulting dataset consists of (1) raw sand elevation data, (2) gridded elevations, (3) interpolated elevation maps with error estimates, (4) beach widths, subaerial and total sand volumes, (5) locations of hard substrate and beach nourishments, (6) water levels from a NOAA tide gauge (7) wave conditions from a buoy-driven regional wave model, and (8) time periods and reaches with alongshore uniform bathymetry, suitable for testing 1-dimensional beach profile change models

Arterial bicarbonate is associated with hypoxic burden and uncontrolled hypertension in obstructive sleep apnea - The ESADA cohort

Objective: Blood bicarbonate concentration plays an important role for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) patients to maintain acid-base balance. We investigated the association between arterial standard bicarbonate ([HCO3-]) and nocturnal hypoxia as well as comorbid hypertension in OSA. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of 3329 patients in the European Sleep Apnea Database (ESADA) was performed. Arterial blood gas analysis and lung function test were performed in conjunction with polysomnographic sleep studies. The 4% oxygen desaturation index (ODI), mean and minimum oxygen saturation (SpO2), and percentage of time with SpO2 below 90% (T90%) were used to reflect nocturnal hypoxic burden. Arterial hypertension was defined as a physician diagnosis of hypertension with ongoing antihypertensive medication. Hypertensive patients with SBP/DBP below or above 140/90 mmHg were classified as controlled-, uncontrolled hypertension, respectively. Results: The [HCO3-] level was normal in most patients (average 24.0 ± 2.5 mmol/L). ODI, T90% increased whereas mean and minimum SpO2 decreased across [HCO3-] tertiles (ANOVA, p = 0.030, <0.001, <0.001, and <0.001, respectively). [HCO3-] was independently associated with ODI, mean SpO2, minimum SpO2, and T90% after adjusting for confounders (β value [95%CI]: 1.21 [0.88–1.54], −0.16 [-0.20 to −0.11], −0.51 [-0.64 to −0.37], 1.76 [1.48–2.04], respectively, all p < 0.001). 1 mmol/L elevation of [HCO3-] was associated with a 4% increased odds of uncontrolled hypertension (OR: 1.04 [1.01–1.08], p = 0.013). Conclusion: We first demonstrated an independent association between [HCO3-] and nocturnal hypoxic burden as well as uncontrolled hypertension in OSA patients. Bicarbonate levels as an adjunctive measure provide insight into the pathophysiology of hypertension in OSA

Blind testing of shoreline evolution models

International audienceBeaches around the world continuously adjust to daily and seasonal changes in wave and tide conditions, which are themselves changing over longer timescales. Different approaches to predict multi-year shoreline evolution have been implemented; however, robust and reliable predictions of shoreline evolution are still problematic even in short-term scenarios (shorter than decadal). Here we show results of a modelling competition, where 19 numerical models (a mix of established shoreline models and machine learning techniques) were tested using data collected for tairua beach, new Zealand with 18 years of daily averaged alongshore shoreline position and beach rotation (orientation) data obtained from a camera system. in general, traditional shoreline models and machine learning techniques were able to reproduce shoreline changes during the calibration period (1999-2014) for normal conditions but some of the model struggled to predict extreme and fast oscillations. During the forecast period (unseen data, 2014-2017), both approaches showed a decrease in models' capability to predict the shoreline position. this was more evident for some of the machine learning algorithms. A model ensemble performed better than individual models and enables assessment of uncertainties in model architecture. Research-coordinated approaches (e.g., modelling competitions) can fuel advances in predictive capabilities and provide a forum for the discussion about the advantages/disadvantages of available models. Quantitative prediction of beach erosion and recovery is essential to planning resilient coastal communities with robust strategies to adapt to erosion hazards. Over the last decades, research efforts to understand and predict shoreline evolution have intensified as coastal erosion is likely to be exacerbated by climatic changes 1-5. The social and economic burden of changes in shoreline position are vast, which has inspired development of a growing variety of models based on different approaches and techniques; yet current models can fail (e.g. predicting erosion in accreting conditions). The challenge for shoreline models is, therefore, to provide reliable, robust and realistic predictions of change, with a reasonable computational cost, applicability to a broad variety of systems, and some quantifiable assessment of the uncertainties

Why Are Outcomes Different for Registry Patients Enrolled Prospectively and Retrospectively? Insights from the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF).

Background: Retrospective and prospective observational studies are designed to reflect real-world evidence on clinical practice, but can yield conflicting results. The GARFIELD-AF Registry includes both methods of enrolment and allows analysis of differences in patient characteristics and outcomes that may result. Methods and Results: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 risk factor for stroke at diagnosis of AF were recruited either retrospectively (n = 5069) or prospectively (n = 5501) from 19 countries and then followed prospectively. The retrospectively enrolled cohort comprised patients with established AF (for a least 6, and up to 24 months before enrolment), who were identified retrospectively (and baseline and partial follow-up data were collected from the emedical records) and then followed prospectively between 0-18 months (such that the total time of follow-up was 24 months; data collection Dec-2009 and Oct-2010). In the prospectively enrolled cohort, patients with newly diagnosed AF (≤6 weeks after diagnosis) were recruited between Mar-2010 and Oct-2011 and were followed for 24 months after enrolment. Differences between the cohorts were observed in clinical characteristics, including type of AF, stroke prevention strategies, and event rates. More patients in the retrospectively identified cohort received vitamin K antagonists (62.1% vs. 53.2%) and fewer received non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (1.8% vs . 4.2%). All-cause mortality rates per 100 person-years during the prospective follow-up (starting the first study visit up to 1 year) were significantly lower in the retrospective than prospectively identified cohort (3.04 [95% CI 2.51 to 3.67] vs . 4.05 [95% CI 3.53 to 4.63]; p = 0.016). Conclusions: Interpretations of data from registries that aim to evaluate the characteristics and outcomes of patients with AF must take account of differences in registry design and the impact of recall bias and survivorship bias that is incurred with retrospective enrolment. Clinical Trial Registration: - URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362)