Preopening and equilibrium selection

Cahier de Recherche du Groupe HEC nº 927We introduce a form of pre-play communication that we call "preopening" for standard normal form, two player games. During the preopening players announce their strategy using a communication system which is subject to stochastic failures. Players payoffs depend on the action profile posted on the system at the end of the preopening. We show that the preopening allows players to coordinate on one pure strategy equilibrium of the game when the system failures hit the two players idiosyncratically. In such a case the preopening always leads the players to select the Pareto superior Nash equilibrium when this exhibits the maximum attainable payoff for each player. Moreover, in the class of two action games of conflicting interests the preopening leads to select the equilibrium preferred by the player with (i) the strongest preference over different equilibria, (ii) the lower cost of miscoordination or (iii) the less efficient posting system

Downscaling With an Unstructured Coastal-Ocean Model to the Goro Lagoon and the Po River Delta Branches

The Goro Lagoon Finite Element Model (GOLFEM) presented in this paper concentrates on the high-resolution downscaled model of the Goro Lagoon, along with five Po river branches and the coastal area of the Po delta in the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy) where crucial socio-economic activities take place. GOLFEM was validated by means of validation scores (bias – BIAS, root mean square error – RMSE, and mean absolute error – MAE) for the water level, current velocity, salinity and temperature measured at several fixed stations in the lagoon. The range of scores at the stations are: for temperature between −0.8 to +1.2°C, for salinity from −0.2 to 5 PSU, for sea level 0.1 m. The lagoon is dominated by an estuarine vertical circulation due to a double opening at the lagoon mouth and sustained by multiple sources of freshwater inputs. The non-linear interactions among the tidal forcing, the wind and the freshwater inputs affect the lagoon circulation at both seasonal and daily time scales. The sensitivity of the circulation to the forcings was analyzed with several sensitivity experiments done with the exclusion of the tidal forcing and different configurations of the river connections. GOLFEM was designed to resolve the lagoon dynamics at high resolution in order to evaluate the potential effects on the clam farming of two proposed scenarios of human intervention on the morphology of the connection with the sea. We calculated the changes of the lagoon current speed and salinity, and using opportune fitness indexes related to the clams physiology, we quantified analytically the effects of the interventions in terms of extension and persistence of areas of the clams optimal growth. The results demonstrate that the correct management of this kind of fragile environment relies on both long-term (intervention scenarios) and short-term (coastal flooding forecasts and potential anoxic conditions) modeling, based on a flexible tool that is able to consider all the recorded human interventions on the river connections. This study also demonstrates the importance of designing a seamless chain of models that are capable of integrating local effects into the coarser operational oceanographic models

An implicit formulation for calculating final conditions in drainage maneuvers in pressurized water installations

[EN] Emptying processes are typical maneuvers that should be performed by water distribution companies for operation purposes. These processes involve a complex numerical analysis, since a set of algebraic and ordinary differential equations needs to be solved for the intricacy of hydraulic and thermodynamic formulations for two analyzed phases (liquid and gas). This research provides an implicit equation to compute exactly the final conditions in water emptying operations in single pipelines without an air valve (or admitted air). The implicit expression was developed by considering that for all final conditions, the water velocity is null, and thus, the water column length and air pocket pressure can be computed. The friction factor, internal pipe diameter, and opening maneuvers of drain valves do not disturb the final conditions in draining processes. The developed implicit formulation was validated using experimental measurements in a pipeline with a total length of 4.36 m. The equation is of utmost importance, since it can be utilized for engineers to easily plan for future conditions in water distribution networks.This research was funded by the Escuela Naval de Cadetes "Almirante Padilla"-Armada de Colombia with the financial support of the ARC-Minciencias for the project entitled "Console Prototype of engineering in virtual reality and simulation in the training of crew members in emergency procedures" with grant number 75926.Coronado-Hernández, OE.; Bonilla-Correa, DM.; Lovo, A.; Fuertes-Miquel, VS.; Gatica, G.; Linfati, R.; Coronado-Hernández, JR. (2022). An implicit formulation for calculating final conditions in drainage maneuvers in pressurized water installations. Water. 14(21):1-13. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14213364113142

Correspondence Between Cognitive and Audiological Evaluations Among the Elderly: A Preliminary Report of an Audiological Screening Model of Subjects at Risk of Cognitive Decline With Slight to Moderate Hearing Loss

Epidemiological studies show increasing prevalence rates of cognitive decline and hearing loss with age, particularly after the age of 65 years. These conditions are reported to be associated, although conclusive evidence of causality and implications is lacking. Nevertheless, audiological and cognitive assessment among elderly people is a key target for comprehensive and multidisciplinary evaluation of the subject's frailty status. To evaluate the use of tools for identifying older adults at risk of hearing loss and cognitive decline and to compare skills and abilities in terms of hearing and cognitive performances between older adults and young subjects, we performed a prospective cross-sectional study using supraliminal auditory tests. The relationship between cognitive assessment results and audiometric results was investigated, and reference ranges for different ages or stages of disease were determined. Patients older than 65 years with different degrees of hearing function were enrolled. Each subject underwent an extensive audiological assessment, including tonal and speech audiometry, Italian Matrix Sentence Test, and speech audiometry with logatomes in quiet. Cognitive function was screened and then verified by experienced clinicians using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment Score, the Geriatric Depression Scale, and further investigations in some. One hundred twenty-three subjects were finally enrolled during 2016-2019: 103 were >65 years of age and 20 were younger participants (as controls). Cognitive functions showed a correlation with the audiological results in post-lingual hearing-impaired patients, in particular in those affected by slight to moderate hearing loss and aged more than 70 years. Audiological testing can thus be useful in clinical assessment and identification of patients at risk of cognitive impairment. The study was limited by its sample size (CI 95%; CL 10%), strict dependence on language, and hearing threshold. Further investigations should be conducted to confirm the reported results and to verify similar screening models

Mitochondrial echoes of first settlement and genetic continuity in El Salvador

Background: From Paleo-Indian times to recent historical episodes, the Mesoamerican isthmus played an important role in the distribution and patterns of variability all around the double American continent. However, the amount of genetic information currently available on Central American continental populations is very scarce. In order to shed light on the role of Mesoamerica in the peopling of the New World, the present study focuses on the analysis of the mtDNA variation in a population sample from El Salvador. Methodology/Principal Findings: We have carried out DNA sequencing of the entire control region of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genome in 90 individuals from El Salvador. We have also compiled more than 3,985 control region profiles from the public domain and the literature in order to carry out inter-population comparisons. The results reveal a predominant Native American component in this region: by far, the most prevalent mtDNA haplogroup in this country (at ~90%) is A2, in contrast with other North, Meso- and South American populations. Haplogroup A2 shows a star-like phylogeny and is very diverse with a substantial proportion of mtDNAs (45%; sequence range 16090–16365) still unobserved in other American populations. Two different Bayesian approaches used to estimate admixture proportions in El Salvador shows that the majority of the mtDNAs observed come from North America. A preliminary founder analysis indicates that the settlement of El Salvador occurred about 13,400±5,200 Y.B.P.. The founder age of A2 in El Salvador is close to the overall age of A2 in America, which suggests that the colonization of this region occurred within a few thousand years of the initial expansion into the Americas. Conclusions/Significance: As a whole, the results are compatible with the hypothesis that today's A2 variability in El Salvador represents to a large extent the indigenous component of the region. Concordant with this hypothesis is also the observation of a very limited contribution from European and African women (~5%). This implies that the Atlantic slave trade had a very small demographic impact in El Salvador in contrast to its transformation of the gene pool in neighbouring populations from the Caribbean facade

Recuperação de área degradada com sistema agroflorestal no Vale do Rio Doce, Minas Gerais.

O Vale do Rio Doce, MG, apresenta um histórico de ocupação e uso do solo que favorece a degradação ambiental, em que predominam pastagens sob o uso constante de queimadas. Os sistemas agroflorestais têm se mostrado eficientes na recuperação de áreas degradadas. Neste estudo foram avaliados os efeitos de um sistema agroflorestal na recuperação do solo em área degradada por pastagem na comunidade de Ilha Funda,Município de Periquito, Minas Gerais. A implantação do sistema se deu em 1994 e está sendo conduzido segundo os princípios agroecológicos, potencializando a regeneração natural e a sucessão de espécies. Em 1998, foram coletadas amostras de solo na área em recuperação e em duas áreas adjacentes: uma área degradada, que se encontrava em condições semelhantes às da área em recuperação no início do processo, e outra ocupada por pastagem. Foram determinados atributos químicos do solo e realizada a caracterização da matéria orgânica. O solo da área em recuperação com sistema agroflorestal mostrou-se em melhores condições do que o solo sob pastagem e o da área degradada, apresentando maior dinâmica do carbono orgânico e maior disponibilidade de nutrientes. Embora o teor de carbono orgânico total apresentado pelo solo sob pastagem tenha sido maior que nas demais condições avaliadas, o solo do sistema agroflorestal já está se igualando ao da pastagem no acúmulo das formas mais estáveis de carbono e apresentando maior dinâmica das frações orgânicas menos estáveis. Este estudo comprovou a eficiência dos sistemas agroflorestais, conduzidos segundo os princípios agroecológicos, na recuperação de áreas degradadas

Multispectral UAV monitoring of submerged seaweed in shallow water

The sudden algal bloom in shallow water may be a serious problem for sea coastal economy based on clams farming because it leads quickly to anoxia conditions with the consequent death of the molluscs. In order to detect the rise of algae, normally satellite remote sensing is used, exploiting the higher response in the near infrared wavelengths. A recent progress in monitoring this phenomenon derives from the availability of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with lightweight multispectral cameras. Such technique makes it possible to acquire detailed spectral information with narrow bands attaining an assessment of the algal bloom at both high geometric and radiometric resolutions. In this work, we tested the MicaSense RedEdge-M multispectral camera mounted on a DJI Phantom 3 Professional aircraft to map submerged seaweeds and assess their evolution with particular regard to the importance of the radiometric calibration of raw imageries using a Downwelling Light Sensor (DLS) and a known reflectance panel. The case study is the lagoon of Goro (Northern Adriatic Sea, Italy), a crucial environment for the clams farming in the Emilia-Romagna region. Digital images acquired in two subsequent flights were processed with either Agisoft PhotoScan Professional and Pix4D Mapper Pro varying the calibration strategies. After a pre-analysis, we applied two different approaches for the seaweed detection: NDVI and maximum likelihood classification. All the tests performed in this study confirm that the monitoring over time with a multispectral lightweight camera mounted on a UAV is possible, but also that by applying proper radiometric corrections, most accurate and reliable results can be achieved