Variability of surface climate in simulations of past and future

It is virtually certain that the mean surface temperature of the Earth will continue to increase under realistic emission scenarios, yet comparatively little is known about future changes in climate variability. This study explores changes in climate variability over the large range of climates simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) and the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3), including time slices of the Last Glacial Maximum, the mid-Holocene, and idealized experiments (1 % CO2 and abrupt4×CO2). These states encompass climates within a range of 12 ∘C in global mean temperature change. We examine climate variability from the perspectives of local interannual change, coherent climate modes, and through compositing extremes. The change in the interannual variability of precipitation is strongly dependent upon the local change in the total amount of precipitation. At the global scale, temperature variability is inversely related to mean temperature change on intra-seasonal to multidecadal timescales. This decrease is stronger over the oceans, while there is increased temperature variability over subtropical land areas (40∘ S–40∘ N) in warmer simulations. We systematically investigate changes in the standard deviation of modes of climate variability, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and the Southern Annular Mode, with global mean temperature change. While several climate modes do show consistent relationships (most notably the Atlantic Zonal Mode), no generalizable pattern emerges. By compositing extreme precipitation years across the ensemble, we demonstrate that the same large-scale modes influencing rainfall variability in Mediterranean climates persist throughout paleoclimate and future simulations. The robust nature of the response of climate variability, between cold and warm climates as well as across multiple timescales, suggests that observations and proxy reconstructions could provide a meaningful constraint on climate variability in future projections

Affordable Rotating Fluid Demonstrations for Geoscience Education: The DIYnamics Project

Demonstrations using rotating tanks of fluid can help demystify otherwise counterintuitive behaviors of atmospheric, oceanic, and planetary interior fluid motions. But the expense and complicated assembly of existing rotating table platforms limit their appeal for many schools, especially those below the university level. Here, we introduce Do-It-Yourself Dynamics (DIYnamics), a project developing extremely low-cost rotating tank platforms and accompanying teaching materials. The devices can be assembled in a few minutes from household items, all available for purchase online. Ordering, assembly, and operation instructions are available on the DIYnamics website. Videos using these and other rotating tables to teach specific concepts such as baroclinic instability are available on the DIYnamics YouTube channel—including some in Spanish. The devices, lesson plans, and demonstrations have been successfully piloted at multiple middle schools, in a university course, and at public science outreach events. These uses to date convince us of the DIYnamics materials’ pedagogical value for instructors from well-versed university professors to K–12 science teachers with little background in fluid dynamics

Inmigrantes marroquíes en la C.A.M.

Sin resume

The impact of lake shape and size on lake breezes and air-lake exchanges on Titan

Titan, the largest moon of Saturn, has many lakes on its surface, formed mainly of liquid methane. Like water lakes on Earth, these methane lakes on Titan likely profoundly affect the local climate. Previous studies (Rafkin and Soto 2020, Chatain et al 2022) showed that Titan's lakes create lake breeze circulations with characteristic dimensions similar to the ones observed on Earth. However, such studies used a model in two dimensions; this work investigates the consequences of the addition of a third dimension to the model. Our results show that 2D simulations tend to overestimate the extension of the lake breeze over the land, and underestimate the strength of the subsidence over the lake, due to divergence/convergence geometrical effects in the mass conservation equations. In addition, 3D simulations including a large scale background wind show the formation of a pocket of accelerated wind behind the lake, which did not form in 2D simulations. An investigation of the effect of shoreline concavity on the resulting air circulation shows the formation of wind currents over peninsulas. Simulations with several lakes can either result in the formation of several individual lake breeze cells (during the day), or the emergence of a large merged cell with internal wind currents between lakes (during the night). Simulations of several real-shaped lakes located at a latitude of 74{\deg}N on Titan at the spring equinox show that larger lakes trigger stronger winds, and that some sections of lakes might accumulate enough methane vapor to form a thin fog. The addition of a third dimension, along with adjustments in the parametrizations of turbulence and subsurface land temperature, results in a reduction in the magnitude of the average lake evaporate rate, namely to ~6 cm/Earth year.Comment: Submitted to Icarus on 2023-07-21. Dataset available at the DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.817227

Evaluación molecular de la presencia del virus de influenza A en cerdos en plantas de beneficio en Colombia

Objetivo. Determinar la presencia del virus de influenza A y evaluar el efecto que tuvo el surgimiento y diseminación del virus H1N1 pandémico de 2009 sobre las cepas endémicas que circulan en la población de cerdos de Colombia. Materiales y métodos. Se recolectaron 369 muestras de tejido pulmonar de cerdos clínicamente sanos en plantas de beneficio de 11 regiones geográficas de Colombia, que fueron analizadas mediante qRT-PCR para la detección de virus de influenza A. Se seleccionaron muestras positivas para el aislamiento en huevos de embrión de pollo SPF, y la presencia del virus fue confirmada con ensayos de hemaglutinación y RT-PCR. Resultados. Se demostró la circulación del virus de influenza A en cinco de las 11 regiones geográficas analizadas y se logró el aislamiento de cinco cepas de campo a partir de muestras provenientes de dos de estas regiones. Conclusiones. Fue posible comprobar que el análisis de muestras obtenidas en plantas de beneficio constituye una alternativa valiosa para el estudio y caracterización de los virus de influenza en cerdos, al permitir cobertura de un mayor número de individuos, haciendo posible la detección molecular y el aislamiento de cepas de campo, aspectos fundamentales para establecer el surgimiento de cepas con potencial pandémico y/o epidémico en el territorio nacional