The extractive industries as a primer for economic growth - getting around the resource curse.

ABSTRACT One of the surprising features of modern economic growth is that economies with abundant natural resources have tended to grow less rapidly than natural resource scarce economies. This paper demonstrates that countries with high levels of natural resource exports tend to grow slower than those countries that have fewer natural resource exports. However, when controlling for the quality of institutions, the effect can be reversed. It is has been found that all countries (regardless of the intensity of natural resource exports) perform better under „good‟ institutions than under „poor‟ institutions. Furthermore, the study examines the determinates of good institutions and finds that high levels of social and human capital are pre-requisites for strong institutions and good governance. The data therefore suggests that high stocks of human and social capital are possible cures to the resource curse. The study further concludes that although resource abundance is linked to slower levels of economic growth, countries should not turn a blind eye to their natural resources. They should however not depend on them too much as the benefits of resource based industrialisation and „forced‟ beneficiation are questioned. The study has implications for policy makers as it recommends that a blank page approach be taken when formulating a development strategy. In terms of institutional reform, the study examines various forms of government in Africa against economic success and finds that African countries perform better under democracies. This finding is likely linked to the mode of manifestation of the resource curse. In Africa, the resource curse seems to specifically manifest itself through the political economy (including systems of political patronage, conflict and security) and not through the effects of macro-economic instability (i.e. Dutch disease). Furthermore, a geographical study of institutions, human capital and economic performance suggests that good performance spills over into adjacent countries, thereby creating a case for increased regionalisation in Africa and recommends more bilateral trade and interdependency of African economies to spread good practices

Public policy and future mineral supplies

A widespread and pessimistic view of the availability of mineral commodities calls for strong government initiatives to ensure adequate future supplies. This article provides a more market oriented and optimistic perspective, one that focuses on production costs and prices rather than physical availability. It sees short-run shortages continuing to plague commodity markets in the future as in the past. Though painful while they last, these shortages are temporary and do not pose a serious long-run threat to human welfare. Moreover, even without government intervention, they self-correct. The sharply higher prices that they evoke create strong incentives that foster supply and curb demand. Potentially more serious are long-run shortages due to mineral depletion. Such shortages are often thought to be inevitable, a conclusion that flows directly from the physical view of depletion. For various reasons, we reject this view of depletion in favor of an economic view. The latter recognizes that depletion may create long-run shortages, but stresses that this need not be the case if new technology can continue to offset the cost-increasing effects of depletion in the future as it has in the past. The economic view also suggests that a list of mineral commodities most threatened by depletion can best be compiled using cumulative availability curves rather than the more common practice of calculating commodity life expectancies based on estimates of available stocks.<p>Validerad;2018;Nivå 2;2018-08-08 (rokbeg)</p

The Political Economy of Non-Renewable Resource Ownership and Control

A large body of literature finds a negative relationship between natural resource abundance and economic efficiency. With few notable exceptions, this literature does not account for variations in the ownership and control of the resources. Through an analytical interpretation of results from a game-theoretic political economy model, this study examines how economic rents, the opportunity cost of firms, potential cost or market access advantages of the private sector and time preferences of politicians combine to affect a politician’s preferences for ownership and control of a non-renewable resource. I find that the resulting choice of ownership type, public or private, is context-specific and that no generalisations can be made: among other factors politicians will consider the size of the resource, expected price paths, whether the private sector has a cost or market access advantage over the state when making its decision, prices and the degree to which the government holds a non-controlling equity stake in the firm. With respect to the efficiency of public versus private ownership, I find that either model can be efficient and that the result is driven mainly by: (i) the differences in time preferences between politicians, the private sector and the social optimum; and (ii) the degree to which the private sector holds a non-appropriable competitive advantage over the government. The model provides a rich and nuanced interpretation of the incentives governments face in making ownership decisions over non-renewable resources. The results act as a reminder to advisers to take into consideration country specifics when making recommendations to governments about which forms of ownership and control lead to a more efficient outcome. Results are corroborated by observations in empirical literature and the model’s explanatory power is highlighted through a range of country case studies

A Mixed Methods Study of Service Provider Capacity Development to Protect and Promote the Sexual and Reproductive Health of Street-Involved Youth: An Evaluation of Two Training Approaches

The central purpose of this mixed methods study was to explore the effectiveness of two types of training programs (face-to-face and online) that aim to enhance the capacity of service providers to work with street-involved youth (SIY) regarding their sexual and reproductive health (S&RH). Twenty-eight participants completed a six hour face-to-face training program that took place in one day. Twenty-nine participants completed a six hour online training program that took place over two weeks. The study evaluated participants' overall reactions to both training programs as well as three specific outcomes related to capacity development: cognitive learning (knowledge), affective learning (perceived comfort) and use of training (practice behaviour). Knowledge and perceived comfort were measured three times: prior to the training program; immediately after the training program; and six weeks after the training program. Participants’ reactions to the training program were measured immediately after the training program and practice behaviours were measured six weeks after the training program. The outcomes were measured via questionnaires containing closed- and open-ended questions. The quantitative components of this study were analyzed using descriptive statistics, repeated measures ANOVA, independent samples t-tests, and Fisher’s exact tests. The qualitative components were analyzed using content analysis. Overall, the mixed methods data demonstrated that: (a) participants in both training programs had positive reactions to their respective training programs; (b) participants in both programs experienced a statistically significant increase in knowledge immediately after the training and six weeks later; (c) face-to-face participants experienced a statistically significant increase in perceived comfort immediately after the training whereas online participants experienced a statistically significant increase in perceived comfort immediately after the training and six weeks later; and (d) six weeks after the training, approximately 46% of face-to-face participants and 72% of online participants had reportedly used their knowledge from their respective training programs. These findings suggest at least a short term enhancement of capacity development with service providers. Overall, this research demonstrated that although face-to-face and online S&RH training programs have their inherent strengths and challenges, both modalities represent acceptable and effective mechanisms for capacity development of service providers working with SIY

The Present, Mid-Term, and Long-Term Supply Curves for Tellurium; and Updates in the Results from NREL's CdTe PV Module Manufacturing Cost Model (Presentation)

For those PV technologies that rely upon Te, In, and Ga, first-order observations and calculations hint that there may be resource constraints that could inhibit their successful deployment at a SunShot level. These are only first-order approximations, however, and the possibility for an expansion in global Te, In, and Ga supplies needs to be considered in the event that there are upward revisions in their demand and prices.In this study, we examine the current, mid-term, and long-term prospects of Tellurium (Te) for use in PV. We find that the current global supply base of Te would support <10 GW of annual traditional CdTe PV manufacturing production. But as for the possibility that the supply base for Te might be expanded, after compiling several preliminary cumulative availability curves we find that there may be significant upside potential in the supply base for this element - principally vis a vis increasing demand and higher prices. Primarily by reducing the Tellurium intensity in manufacturing and by increasing the recovery efficiency of Te in Cu refining processes, we calculate that it may prove affordable to PV manufacturers to expand the supply base for Te such that 100 GW, or greater, of annual CdTe PV production is possible in the 2030 - 2050 timeframe

Visual access to performance indicators in the mining sector

We introduce a visualization system that provides visual interactive access to information relevant for decision making in the mining sector. The mining sector is one of the most important industries in developing countries, especially in Africa. Stakeholders like governments, investors, and the civil society play an important role in the growth of the mining sector. They are interested in information reviewing individual country performances towards mining. The Mining Investment and Governance Review (MInGov) dataset explicitly addresses this issue. However, the complex data structure introduces challenges for the intuitive and easy understanding of the information. Together with mining sector experts, we conducted a design study with the goal to provide visual interactive access to investment- and policy-related information. We report on a domain characterization of the MInGov dataset, its potential users, and their tasks. Based on this analysis, we design a visualization system that supports mining-related decision making. Finally, we evaluate the visualization system in a user workshop with domain experts

Supply Chain Dynamics of Tellurium (Te), Indium (In), and Gallium (Ga) Within the Context of PV Module Manufacturing Costs

Analysis discussing the cost models and supply chains of various PV technologies